World Cup Props Predictions: Which Group Will Winner Come From?
by Nicholas Tolomeo - 5/31/2010
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If the 32-team World Cup field makes it too hard to try to try and pick an outright winner, there is a prop that gives you the option of picking an entire group. This prop bet is a little more involved than picking an outright winner. You have to take into account top teams in each group who have a chance to get out of the group stage and also take into account the draw the two advancing countries will face in the knockout stages. It’s important to also take into consideration a team’s odds to win outright and if it’s worth the drop in value to add three other teams to the bet. For example, in Group F Italy is 14/1 to win the World Cup but if you take the rest of the group the odds drop to 10/1.
Groups are listed from best odds to worst odds and we will offer some World Cup props predictions for each group. The odds are listed as posted on Bodog.
Group G 3/1
The World Cup Group of Death is the odds-on favorite to produce the World Cup winner with 3/1 odds. Brazil, Portugal and the Ivory Coast give Group G three teams with world-class talent. This appears to be one of the worst bets in this prop, though, for a number of reasons. The 3/1 odds offer no value in a decent payout and Portugal and Ivory Coast are injury-riddled and two of the most overrated teams in the field. And, lastly, the Group of Death has rarely been known to produce World Cup semifinalists, let alone winners.
The last three World Cups, the top two teams to advance to the knockout rounds were all ousted by the quarterfinals. In addition to that the second-place team from Group G will likely run into Spain in the Round of 16.
Group H 7/2
The reason these odds are 7/2 is for one simple reason. The group contains Spain. If you think Spain has what it takes to overcome its previous World Cup shortcomings then this is a smart bet. Spain is 7/2 outright to win the World Cup and the group has the same odds. So for the same price you also get Chile, Honduras and Switzerland. Overall the group is not a good bet especially considering the top two teams from Group H will be paired with the top two teams from Group G, the World Cup Group of Death.
Group C 5/1
Group C lacks much depth after England, who you can bet on to win outright at 7/1. The addition of the United States in this group along with mediocre Slovenia and Algeria is not worth the drop in odds from 7/1 to 5/1 if you like England.
Group B 11/2
Argentina is the headliner in this group and it’s doubtful that many countries will be looking past a strong Nigeria group. Those two countries make this group a worthwhile wager. The fact that Greece and South Korea are two weaker teams helps this group’s odds as Argentina and Nigeria will have an easier time getting through. The Group B draw is also a favorable one as it is matched up with Group A in the Round of 16 and will avoid any team from the World Cup Group of Death and Spain until the World Cup semifinals.
Group D 8/1
Germany, Ghana and Serbia give Group D the second-best depth in terms of the top three teams. Germany is 16/1 outright to win the World Cup while Ghana and Serbia are both listed at 66/1. The group is paired with Group C in the Round of 16, which is favorable. Group D has a good shot of getting two teams into the quarterfinals, but it is tough to imagine Germany without Michael Ballack or Ghana without Michael Essien or Serbia in its first-ever World Cup making a run all the way to the World Cup Final.
Group E 9/1
Group E is a very shallow group here with only the Netherlands appearing to be a legitimate threat. They can be had at 11/1 outright to win it. Taking Group E only adds in lowly Cameroon, Denmark and Japan. Looking ahead to the Round of 16, Italy could be lurking in that game and after that it is very likely Spain and a representative from the Brazil, Portugal, Ivory Coast juggernaut of a group.
Group A 10/1
This is another group top to bottom that is balanced but in this prop bet, that does not account for much. France is capable of winning and Mexico, Uruguay and host South Africa all have potential to get out of the group stage but they do not have the makeup of semifinalists.
Group F 10/1
The weakest group in the field also has the worst odds along with Group A. New Zealand, Paraguay and Slovakia add absolutely no value to Italy, who is listed at 14/1 for World Cup futures odds.
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