by Celso Chamochumbi - 03/29/2006
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Predictably, the list of teams favored to win the 2006 World Cup in Germany rings very familiar to soccer fans globally. Even though surprise teams such as Belgium (1986), Sweden and Bulgaria (1994), Croatia (1998) and Turkey and Senegal (2002) have played their way into the semi-finals of recent World Cups, the fraternity of World Cup champions has only welcomed one new member (France, 1998) in the last 24 years. Thus, do not devote more than a casual glance at the whole field of thirty-two teams when thinking about a futures bet, as only about a half-dozen sides merit serious consideration based on their past success.
More so than other major sporting events, the World Cup is a tournament that has belonged to the favorites. Six of the seven nations (except Uruguay) to have ever hoisted the World Cup trophy have qualified for the 2006 tournament, and predictably are again considered the six strongest candidates to triumph this summer. The dominance of the elite teams has not been lost on oddsmakers as well. Greg Jorseen, spokesman for Bodog, "expects the betting pattern to be similar to 2002, in that most of the money being on the favorites."
As with single-game lines, do not forget to shop around for futures odds. I have found some intriguing disparities in the lines posted by major offshore sportsbooks, and will explore those individually as I sift through the different possibilities.
What follows is a team-by-team analysis, with respect to the futures odds, along with some 2006 World Cup Predictions. I will first take a close look at the top six favorites: Brazil, England, Argentina, Italy, France and Germany, and then very briefly survey other highlights from the field. The analysis is based on past performance, as well as careful speculation as to which opponents these respective heavyweights might cross paths with on their way to the July 9 final.
BRAZIL:
Odds:
Sportsbook.com -- 5/2
Bodog -- 3/1
Past Performance:
Champions: 1958, 1962, 1970, 1994, 2002
Possible Opponents: Italy/Ghana/USA/Czech Republic in second round; Spain in the quarters, and England in the semis; Brazil and host Germany are not designed to meet until the finals.
Analysis: A likely favorite in all international soccer competitions, Brazil has not dominated in World Cups played on the Old Continent. The key for Brazil to win is defense, as offensive firepower is of second nature to this squad, and questions swirl over who will man the central defense. Also, it is uncertain as to what Ronaldo will provide, and I wonder if Head Coach Carlos Alberto Parreira will have the locker room presence to maintain a grip over this collection of megastars. Given Italy's propensity for slow starts, it is not out of the question that Brazil faces a very dangerous and seemingly unpredictable Italian side. Spain and England would be likely opponents thereafter, but what happens when pitted against the home side in the final?
2006 World Cup Prediction:
For the relatively low return, I'd stay away from this bet.
ENGLAND:
Odds:
Sportsbook.com -- 13/2
Bodog -- 7/1
Past Performance:
Champions: 1966
Possible Opponents: Poland in the second round; Mexico or the Netherlands in the quarters, and Brazil in the semis.
Analysis: A case could be made that England (and France) is the most overrated of the so-called elite teams. A semi-final appearance in 1990 and a trip to the quarterfinals in 2002 hardly constitute a powerhouse résumé. But the world is well aware of England's rich history and tradition, and their best players are unquestionably of world-class stature. Unfortunately for England, they face two extremely difficult games at the quarter and semifinals stages. Even if they get past the Netherlands and Brazil, what about playing Germany in the final? It would make for an interesting revenge match for the classic 1966 final between the English and the West Germans, one which the home team incidentally won (with a little help).
2006 World Cup Prediction:
The 7/1 return is significant, but the tournament scheduling is too much to overcome.
ARGENTINA:
Odds:
Sportsbook.com -- 7/1
Bodog -- 13/2
Past Performance:
Champions: 1978 and 1986
Possible Opponents: Mexico/Angola/Portugal in the second round, with Germany in the quarterfinals.
Analysis: Under different circumstances and without a date with the host team in the quarterfinals looming, this would be a fantastic option. The Argentine side played extremely well throughout the South American qualifying tournament, but revealed the inability to win important games as visitors. This team will win its group, steamrolling the Netherlands in the process, and easily handle whoever comes in second from Group D (Mexico, Portugal, and/or Angola). However, I see the quarterfinal match against Germany as perhaps the pivotal game of the tournament. It will send one team through the roof with confidence, and the other home. Adios Argentina.
2006 World Cup Prediction:
Again, the 7/1 odds are very enticing. If you strongly believe that Argentina could overcome Germany, then this is the play for you.
GERMANY:
Odds:
Sportsbook.com -- 8/1
Bodog -- 7/1
Past Performance:
Champions: 1954, 1974, 1990
Possible Opponents: Paraguay/Sweden in the second round; Argentina in the quarterfinals; winner of Italy/France in the semis, and perhaps Brazil in the finals.
Analysis: Of the six elite teams, Germany's recent struggles are the most evident. Two recent exhibition matches made a lot of noise, but I don't think they amount to much. First, Italy thrashes Germany, 4-1 (in Italy), and then Germany overruns the USA, 4-1 (in Germany), earlier this month. The only substantive lessons were that Italy is strong enough to dominate and play attacking soccer at home, and that the USA team is not anywhere near the level to scrap together a "B" team. Otherwise, the gravest concern for the German side seems to be as to whether Head Coach Jürgen Klinsmann can mold his players into one of the typically coherent and tactically-disciplined German squads. Perhaps the Germans will find their identity and a leader will emerge as this team faces a relatively easy path to the finals. After dispensing of their second-round foe (Paraguay or Sweden), Germany would likely face Argentina, in what could be their tournament- defining match. This could be the no-turning-back moment for a team desperately wanting to be embraced by the demanding home fans, as well as for the proud home fans yearning for something to like about this team. The semifinals and finals could involve the winner of the Italy/France quarterfinal and a showdown with defending champion Brazil. If these matches were played under any different circumstances and in any other corner of the world, Germany could well be the underdog. But, this isn't the case.
2006 World Cup Prediction:
At 8/1, I have already placed my bet.
ITALY:
Odds:
Sportsbook.com -- 8/1
Bodog -- 9/1
Past Performance:
Champions: 1934, 1938, 1982
Possible Opponents: Brazil/Croatia in the second round; France in the quarterfinals and Germany in the semis.
Analysis: The Italians are hoping that the recent 4-1 demolition of Germany is a sign of what is to come this World Cup. Skeptics might say that this team peaked too early, asking aloud if people remember when Colombia thrashed Argentina, 5-0, prior to the 1994 World Cup. Regardless, any key for Italy to make a successful run through the World Cup hinges on their ability to overcome their regular slow starts. A slip up in the first round, and Italy's participation in Germany could come to halt with a match-up against Group F favorite Brazil. Like England, Italy's prospects for triumph are hobbled by an unrelenting schedule that could force the Italians into a showdown with the host Germans in the semifinals. The recovery of star forward Francesco Totti seems ahead of schedule, boding well for his participation this summer.
2006 World Cup Prediction:
At 9/1, this also looks like an excellent choice if you think that the Italians could beat Germany (again).
FRANCE:
Odds:
Sportsbook.com -- 10/1
Bodog -- 10/1
Past Performance:
Champions 1998
Possible Opponents: Ukraine in the second round, with a quarterfinal match against Italy; Germany or Argentina would be semifinal opponents.
Analysis: France is not as good as it showed in 1998 and not as bad as it proved in 2002, but one should still expect for the French side to get a good start to World Cup 2006. A relatively easy group should land France a manageable second-round game against the Ukraine. From there, the French side seems to be beyond their limits as its possible next two opponents (Italy and Germany) could easily spell the end of France's participation in Germany this summer. A notch below Brazil, Italy and Argentina, I find it hard to see this French team progressing past the quarterfinals.
2006 World Cup Prediction:
Because this team is a former World Cup champion, it was considered amongst the world's elite, but laying money on France, even at 10/1 is already in the 'reaching' category.
A quick survey of the best of the rest is merely useful for conservation and debating purposes.
Spain:
Odds:
Sportsbook.com -- 3/1
Bodog -- 16/1
Portugal:
Odds:
Sportsbook.com -- 18/1
Bodog -- 20/1
Mexico:
Odds:
Sportsbook.com -- 35/1
Bodog -- 50/1
Holland:
Odds:
Sportsbook.com -- 11/1
Bodog -- 9/1
USA:
Odds:
Sportsbook.com -- 42/1
Bodog -- 60/1
Joint Analysis of the mentioned five teams: For starters, all five squads have realistic aspirations of playing well in the tournament, but none actually will be disgraced with not walking away from Germany without the Cup. For the first-tier teams, especially for Brazil, Germany, Italy and Argentina, not winning the tournament is tantamount to failure.
The Spanish first division may be home to the world's greatest talents, but most of it is imported. The Spanish actually benefited from a favorable tournament draw, and can be penciled in for a quarterfinal appearance. The problem is that they would likely face Brazil.
Portugal has a superstar coach in Luis Felipe de Scolari, but an aging team. I actually see the Portuguese in a very vulnerable position within their group, and we might have Angola emerge as the second-place team.
Mexico has advanced to the second round in every World Cup since 1994. Advancing to the quarterfinals would signify a major accomplishment, but to get there, it would have to get by either Ivory Coast or the Netherlands. From there, it could be the English, with Brazil in line for the semis. Nonetheless, Mexico figures to represent North American soccer well in 2006.
Holland, a perennial trendy pick, is more known for its past than its present. Getting out of group play is not a guarantee, but if successful, the Dutch could square off against the above-mentioned Mexican side. Remember, these two teams tied 2-2 in 1998, so this game is much more in the air than the Dutch would like to think.
Finally, there is the 'home' angle and my thoughts on the USA's chances. Head Coach Bruce Arena has undoubtedly helped elevate the level of American play. Top-tier teams have ceased to underestimate the pesky and rugged American side, however this does not imply that the USA is capable of getting much further than it did four years ago. Making it past the first round will mark a successful participation in World Cup 2006, and unfortunately a second-round game against Brazil would send the Americans packing.
In short, one need not look much farther than beyond the usual suspects when surveying the futures options for World Cup 2006. Anything in the double-digit range reeks of 'sucker', so beware. When betting these 2006 World Cup Predictions, be sure to shop around for the best odds.
Make sure to check back prior to the World Cup for Doc's Sports special tournament packages.