What are NBA Basketball Picks: A Comprehensive Guide

by Joey House - 9/11/2023

What are NBA picks Kawhi Leonard Los Angeles Clippers

I. Introduction

A. Overview of the NBA and sports betting's popularity

B. The definition of NBA picks and why they're important

C. Purpose of the article is to provide valuable insights and strategies for successful NBA picks

II. Key factors to consider when making NBA picks:

A. Team statistics and performance

B. Player injuries and availability

C. Home-court advantage

D. Scheduling

E. Coaching strategies and playstyles

F. Team motivation and recent form

III. Different Types of NBA Picks

A. Point Spread Picks: Predicting the margin of victory or defeat for a team.

B. Moneyline Picks: Selecting the outright winner of a game.

C. Over/Under Picks: Predict whether the total combined score will be higher or lower than a specified number.

D. Player Prop Bet Picks: Wagering specific player performances, such as points, rebounds, or assists.

E. Team Prop Bet Picks: Betting on team-related outcomes, like total points scored or three-pointers made.

F. Futures Bet Picks: Predicting the outcome of future events, like division winners, conference champions, or NBA Finals winners.

G. Parlay Picks: Combining multiple wagers into one bet for higher potential payouts.

H. Teaser and Alternative Bet Picks: Modifying the point spread or total points in favor of the bettor, combining multiple games into one bet for teasers, and alternative lines applying to a single game.

IV. Utilizing Advanced Analytics

A. Introduction to advanced analytics in NBA picks

B. Advanced Stats:

1. Player Efficiency Rating (PER)

2. True Shooting Percentage (TS%)

3. Net Rating

4. Usage Rate

V. Examples of Doc’s Sports Expert NBA Picks

VI. Conclusion

A. Recap of key points in the article

B. Encouragement to apply the strategies and insights for successful NBA picks

C. Recommendation of expert NBA pick services for additional assistance

I. Introduction

A. Overview of the NBA and gambling's popularity: Thanks to good leadership, strong marketing, and a roster of superstar players that come from across the entire globe, basketball's popularity is experiencing impressive growth. One of the major components of that growth is the explosion of betting on NBA games. Ever since the Supreme Court repealed PASPA in 2018, the trickle of sports betting has become a flood, and wagering on NBA games is at the forefront.

B. Definition of NBA Picks and their importance: NBA picks refer to the process of making predictions regarding the outcome of an NBA game and using that information to place a wager. There are a multitude of choices and different wagers that can be made. Not only is there usually a monetary reward for a successful pick, but there comes the satisfaction of being able to showcase your sports knowledge to friends and others.

C. Purpose of this article: The main focus of this article is to enlighten both fans and bettors on the research and process that goes into making a successful wager. Some of the statistical procedures will be discussed, as well as other factors and trends. In the end, there will be an example from a world-famous handicapper here at Docs and how to make use of all his hard work.

II. Key factors in making NBA Picks

As each season passes, there seems to be more and more "advanced analytics" that are created. What may work for some may not work for others. You need to find a group of factors that suits your style of NBA handicapping and work with them. In this section, we'll briefly introduce you to some of the components that go into becoming a successful handicapper.

A. Team statistics and performance: This is the cornerstone of any professional bettor's handicapping process. Some effective metrics to use are points per game and point differentials between a team's offense and their defense, shooting percentages (both from 2-point range, 3-point land, and the free throw strip), rebounding, and turnovers. Analyzing and comparing these stats against the opponent can help give you a clearer picture of a team's strengths and weaknesses, about their opposition.

B. Player Injuries and Availability: As in any sport, injuries are an important factor to monitor and take into consideration when looking at a team's strengths and weaknesses. Because of the small number of players on the court, injuries and player availability not only influences the game by their absence but also team chemistry and cohesion, which may be more vital factors in basketball than in any other game.

C. Home-court advantage: Having an advantage in playing in your own facility is widely recognized in sports, and basketball is no different. From not having to deal with the rigors of traveling, to having their hometown fans root for and inspire them, home-court advantage is very real and needs to be accounted for when analyzing a game.

D. Scheduling: This refers to inspecting a team's schedule to gauge their potential energy levels. While not as exhausting as baseball, the NBA teams are forced with back-to-back games and a high number of games in a short period. A savvy handicapper factors in fatigue in their assessment of the game.

E. Coaching Strategies and Playstyles: One of the great things about basketball is the variety of playstyles and strategies a coach can employ. Hall of Fame coach Don Nelson is credited with "Nellie Ball" and the "point-forward", which allows three guards that emphasize speed and volume shooting, while the late, great HOF coach Jerry Sloan ran offensive sets that a slower, more deliberate, and methodical style which slows the pace down. Understanding how these varying styles interact with each other will give a bettor a better idea of what should transpire.

F. Team Motivation and Recent Form: Recent form can be heavily influenced by a team's psychological state. Another HOF coach, Pat Riley, is credited with the saying "Winning begets winning", which simply means winning follows winning. Towards the end of the season, when the least successful teams are playing, oftentimes their effort is questioned because losing helps increase their chances of landing the first draft pick in the NBA Draft Lottery

III. Different types of NBA Picks

As the landscape of sports wagering continues to grow in such a frenzied fashion, the wagers that are offered also drastically increasing. We'll cover the eight most-popular bets typically made by sports bettors and the different nuances that go with each one.

A. Point Spread Picks: Next to picking the outright winner of a basketball game, point spread wagers are the next popular. When two opponents are mismatched, the sportsbook will attempt to even the odds by giving the underdog points that the favorite must score more than to win the game for their backers (this spread doesn't influence the actual game at all). The Utah Jazz and the Dallas Mavericks played on March 7, and Dallas was an 11-point favorite. They won the game 120-116, but the people that bet on them lost their wager since they only won by 7 points.

B. Moneyline Picks: If point spreads confuse you, then bet the moneyline, because all that matters is who wins the game outright. Odds are given to each team regarding their payout if they win. If Boston is -160, that means you need to put up $160 to win $100. If Philly is+225 and wins, then for every $100 you wager, you'll collect $225.

C. Over/Under Picks: Also known as a total, this bet involves the combined points of both teams and if that score is more than or less than a number set by the sportsbook. In the last game of the 2023-23 NBA championship, the over/under was set at 210 points. With Denver winning 94-89 over Miami, the total of 183 went under easily. In Game 2 of the Finals, the O/U was 216.5. When the Heat won 111-108 over the Nuggets, the total just barely squeaked over.

D. Player Prop Bet Picks: Prop bets allows bettors to wager on individual performances, regardless of the game's outcome. These bets have seen their popularity increase along with the booming popularity of daily fantasy sports. These bets can be made on a multitude of things, ranging from points scored, rebounds, assists, three-pointers made, etc.

E. Team Prop Bet Picks: These bets are similar to the player props, but just team related. The usual team prop is the O/U of one team's points.

F. Futures Bet Picks: Future bets involve wagering on the future event, usually throughout the regular season. Future wagers can be placed on who will win the division, conference, NBA Finals, etc. They can also be placed on individuals as well, such as awards like the MVP and who will be the first draft pick in the NBA Draft.

G. Parlay Picks: Parlay picks are individual wagers that are combined into one larger bet that features an increased payout. Each leg of the parlay must win for the overall bet to succeed. These are favorites of the bettors because of the enhanced payouts AND the sportsbook because the sportsbook edge is so great.

H. Teaser and Alternative Bet Picks: Teaser bets are regular spread and total bets that are modified, or "teased", to help the side of the bettor. These wagers are typically made in a parlay. This allows the bettor some security or wiggle room in their bet but at a significantly reduced price. Alternative picks are also growing in popularity, as they allow the bettor to explore different lines or totals that match the bettor's level of risk. There is normally a 10-point limit, either way, that you may deviate from the original line.

IV. Utilizing Advanced Analytics

As basketball has evolved and advanced over the years, so has the world of statistics and the way players are evaluated. The introduction of analytics to the world of sports has enabled coaches, fans, and bettors the ability to more accurately gauge a player's past performance and predict with more confidence future performance. These analytics, which are often based on already established statistical categories, go much further from the box score from which they came. Bettors can use them to gain a more comprehensive understanding of the game, and thus, can make more accurate picks that will increase their bankroll.

A. Introduction to Advanced Analytics in NBA Picks

Just as baseball analytics began with a paper written by Bill James in the 1970s, a book written in 2004 entitled "Basketball on Paper" is often called the birth of modern basketball analytics. The author, Dean Oliver, introduced "Four Factors of Basketball Success", which used shooting efficiency, turnovers, rebounding, and free throws to help understand a team's performance beyond just the boxscore. With these ideas, as well as John Hollinger who developed the Player Efficiency Rating (PER), analysts can reveal tendencies and trends that might otherwise go unnoticed.

B. Advanced Stats

Player Efficiency Rating (PER): The main benchmark for modern basketball analytics, Player Efficiency Rating is a composite metric that gauges a player's performance not just in, but on the whole game as well measured in a per-minute basis. This stat measures a player's offensive influence on the game, by incorporating the standard statistics of points, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks, along with missed shots, turnovers, along with the pace of the game that shows a player's effectiveness. A higher PER generally shows a player who impacts the game more.
True Shooting Percentage (TS%): True Shooting Percentage is a stat that combines field goals, three-point field goals, and free throws to measure a player's scoring efficiency. Think of it as the basketball version of baseball's slugging percentage. Each stat is added together and then divided by a formula that includes both field goal and free throw attempts. By including free throws in the formula, this stat shows a player's ability to manufacture points.
Net Rating: Net rating measures the point differential per 100 possessions of a team when a player is on the floor. This allows a player's defensive ability to be factored into their contributions and shows a complete overview of their impact. A positive Net Rating indicates the team scores more when the player is on the court and a negative Net Rating shows the team allows more points when the player is playing.
Usage Rate: Usage rate shows the percentage of a team's possessions that a player uses while they're on the court. It is a player's field goal and free throw attempts, along with their turnovers, and then is divided by the team's totals of those stats. This allows analysts to see how much of a role in a team's offensive game plan the player has. A higher usage rate shows that a player has a dominant role in creating scoring opportunities.

V. Example of NBA Picks from Doc's Expert

Doc’s Sports NBA Game of the Year:

8-Unit NBA Game of the Year Take LA Clippers -2.5 over Golden State (10 p.m. EST, Wed March 15, 2023)

Something has finally clicked with the Clippers. After a season of trials and tribulations, this team finally is playing at the level that most expected coming into the season. And tonight is their most important game of the season as they are tied with the Warriors and a game behind the Suns. By the end of the weekend, if all goes according to plan, Los Angeles could see themselves in the Top 4 in the West. After a season of major ups and downs, LA is in a great position to get a decent seed and do some damage in the postseason. But they need a win tonight. And we think they do just that. This team is well rested and has had three nights off coming into this super important game. The Warriors are coming off consecutive wins over the Bucks and Suns. So they are in a letdown spot here. And this team has been horrible on the road this season. They are 7-26 on the road. And they are 8-23-1 ATS on the road. A healthy and clicking Clippers team is better than the Warriors, and we think they prove that on the court tonight.

(134-126 LA Clippers Win)

VI. Conclusion

A. This article shows how the popularity of the NBA has boomed since the Supreme Court repealed PAPSA in 2018, and so has legalized sports betting. We have shown you how statistics and team information are the foundation of handicapping. We introduced you to numerous other factors such as player injuries, scheduling, and coaching strategies, and how they all interact with each other.

B. Armed with this knowledge, you can now start to make your own NBA picks with a little more certainty and conviction, using some of the very same tools that professional handicappers use. As in anything, the key is to keep practicing and employing the lessons you learned. An excellent maxim to live by in gambling is this: Don't be results-orientated but process-orientated. Just because a wager didn't cash doesn't mean it wasn't the correct play. Conversely, just because a bet won does it mean it was the proper selection, you could have just got lucky.

C. If you still want to dive into the world of betting on NBA games, but don't feel comfortable enough with your skills in handicapping, you can absolutely turn to the experts at Doc Sports. Trusted for over 50 years in the industry, Doc's has a bevy of handicappers with decades of experience. Able to meet whatever risk level you want, you can be sure that they will guide you down the exciting road of NBA picks.

FAQ

What is "micro" betting? That is where the bettor is wagering on specific events in the game that isn't impacted by the final score. Micro-betting in the NBA would be something like: Will LeBron miss one of his 2 free throws after getting fouled? Micro bets are lightning-fast and disappear as quickly as they were created. Because of the completely fluid nature of those wagers, we don't really focus much on them at all.

What is an NBA Parlay Ticket? These used to be popular in hometown organizations such as VFWs and fire halls, but are offered at brick-and-mortar casinos as well. The ticket will have a list of games, usually on the weekend, and is printed out early in the week with odds for each game. These odds are static and don't move at all. They payout parlay odds, but you must pick at least three teams. Unlike regular parlay bets, ties lose for the bettor.

Why must I wager $110 for my $100 bet? The extra $10 that you must put up is known as "the juice" or "vig". Think of it as a tax being placed on having the privilege of betting on any side you want. The sportsbooks make their living off of the vig. In the sportsbook's "perfect" world, $1 million will go to the visiting team and $1 million on the home team, allowing the sportsbook to collect a guaranteed $100,000.

What are quarter and half-time lines? These are bets placed on a particular quarter or half. They operate just like a full-game wager, but only for the time period that is specified.

What is a cross-sport parlay? These are parlays that involve different sports. For example, during the NFL playoffs, sportsbooks will often release parlays that involve the NFL games with the NBA games running that weekend.

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Start:	December 21, 2024 @ 2:00 PM
Expert:	Scott Spreitzer
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