What are MLB Baseball Picks: A Comprehensive Guide

by Joey House - 7/31/2023

What are MLB baseball picks Jeimer Candelario Washington Nationals

I. What are MLB Picks?

A. Importance and popularity of MLB Picks

Building community
Popular in sports betting
Bountiful information leads to growth

II. Understanding MLB Picks

A. Definition of MLB Picks

B. How to get MLB Picks

C. Types of MLB Picks

Money line Picks
Run Line Picks
Over/Under Picks
First Five Innings Picks
Team Total Picks
YRFI/NRFI Picks
Prop Bets
Parlay Picks
Futures Picks

D. Factors to be considered in MLB Picks

Starting Pitchers
Team Performance and Statistics
Injuries
Home Field Advantage

III. Doc's MLB Picks

What Are MLB Baseball Picks?

Baseball, the beloved pastime of our nation, has captured the hearts of fans for generations. As sports wagering continues its expansion across the USA, an exhilarating pursuit has emerged—making baseball picks. These picks can come from many sources, such as baseball analysts, professional handicappers, and even passionate followers. For many, betting on baseball is about money. But for some, it's an outlet for their competitive juices that haven't stopped flowing since their athletic days. There's a feeling of triumph when they hit a 3-team parlay or a 6-unit-sized bet comparable to winning a big game.

Doc’s Sports offers MLB expert picks for every game on our baseball predictions page.

The Importance and Popularity of MLB Baseball Picks

Engaging Fans on a Deeper Level

Making baseball picks has become a compelling way for fans to immerse themselves in the game they love. It goes beyond mere spectating, allowing enthusiasts to express their expertise. Fans have always engaged in witty banter about the better player or team. Still, in today's game, baseball picks provide a platform for fans to display their comprehensive understanding of the game and ignite lively debates about potential outcomes.

A Thriving Component of Sports Betting

Within the realm of sports betting, baseball picks have gained tremendous popularity. Baseball's intricate nature, with statistics, player performances, and team dynamics, presents an ideal landscape for bettors to analyze and make informed predictions. Baseball picks encompass many betting markets, including run totals, player-specific propositions, and game-specific outcomes. Using statistical data, advanced analytics, and expert insights in this "Age of Information," these handicappers can release picks steeped in calculated decisions that increase the chances of success.

Accessible Information Spurs Growth

The popularity of baseball picks continues to be fueled by the widespread dissemination of information. In addition, a plethora of online platforms and websites are now dedicated solely to the analysis of sports wagering. Enthusiasts and bettors can access statistical data, trend analysis, expert handicappers' opinions, and computer models that can simulate a matchup in tens of thousands of ways. All of this goes to create a network that nurtures collaboration, knowledge sharing, and a sense of camaraderie as fellow enthusiasts are in direct competition, sometimes with each other but more often than not against "The House."

How to Obtain MLB Baseball Picks

MLB baseball picks pertain to predicting the results of baseball contests. They result from extensive investigation, statistical examination, and a strong knowledge of the sport. These selections help fans, analysts, and bettors predict which team will win the game and forecast related outcomes like the number of runs or individual player performances.

It is also important to understand that there are picks for every risk level. From multi-leg parlays with potentially huge payouts to the less complicated moneyline picks where you simply need your selection to win the game, there is a baseball pick that is tailored to match your risk tolerance.

Different Types of MLB Baseball Picks

As gambling becomes more widespread and mainstream, more and more different types of picks are part of the MLB baseball betting landscape. There are literally hundreds of wagers to choose from. We'll cover the main ones that will survive as a primer for your gambling education and provide you with a solid foundation to expand upon.

Moneyline Picks: The easiest and most popular pick is the money line, the primary wager in baseball. It is so popular because of the simplicity of it. You pick a team, and if they win, so do you. It's that easy. Just the other night, I heard a baseball announcer say how difficult reading the odds for baseball picks is. It is a straightforward system once you learn it. The odds for money line picks list the odds of the favorite in terms of how much money you would need to wager in order to win $100. If the Yankees are -180 over the Angels, that means you would need to put up $180 to win $100. Your payout would be $280 ($180 Bet + $100 Profit). The Angels, meanwhile, would be at +170, meaning that if you wagered $100, you would collect $270 ($170 Profit + $100).
Runline Picks: As the proliferation of gambling continues, many wagers have experienced a growth in popularity. The runline pick is a beautiful example of this. It combines elements of a money line, and point spread wager. The favorite team is assigned a spread, usually -1.5 runs, that they must cover to win the bet. Increased odds incentivize gamblers to place this over a moneyline wager. For example, let's say the Phillies are playing the Mets. If the Phillies are -140 on the moneyline and the Mets are +120 on the money line, with the 1.5 run line, the Phillies' odds might be +135 while the Mets, who get the +1.5 runs, see their odds decrease to -155.
Over/Under (O/U) Picks: Also known as "MLB baseball totals," O/U is a wager on the total final score of both teams. The winner of the game is not necessary in terms of winning the wager, just if the bettor correctly guessed more than the number or less than the number. If the Cubs and the Cardinals are playing a game and the O/U is 9.0 at -110. A wager on the OVER would mean that to win $100, the bettor must put up $110, and the game's final score must equal 10 runs or more. If it ends up 5-4 Cubs, every O/U bet is returned, considered a "push," and all money is returned to the bettor.
First Five Innings (F5) Pick: These can be a series of different bets, precisely like the first three I've discussed, but only through the first five innings and not the entire game. Handicappers can focus on the starting pitchers and early game dynamics. These are the baseball equivalent of first-half odds in football or basketball.
Team Total Picks: This is a wager on the total number of runs scored by a team during the game. It uses the same system as O/U but only pertains to a specific team. If the Padres have a team total of 5.5 against the Guardians, the bettor would wager that they score over or under that amount.
YRFI/NRFI Pick: Here is another wager rapidly becoming more popular. Yes (or No) Run First Inning is a wager on whether or not there will be a run scored, by either team, in the first frame of play, regardless of the outcome of the contest.
Player Prop Picks: Various wagers involve a particular player's performance. They include how many innings a starting pitcher will go, how many strikeouts they'll throw, a batter's total number of bases (only hits are factored into this wager, not walks, fielder's choices, or errors), the number of stolen bases, or if they will hit a home run, to name a few. Most of these are independent of the outcome of a game unless it explicitly denotes that as a requirement.
Parlay Picks: This combines individual wagers into a single bet (or parlay), where all selections must be correct to win the bet. The enhanced excitement is because of the added difficulty in satisfying each leg of the wager, and the payout is increased significantly. Parlays that offer fixed odds can vary from sportsbook to sportsbook but generally are 13/5 for a 2-teamer, 6/1 for a 3-team, 10/4 for a 4-team, and so on. Moneyline parlays vary based on the odds of the selected teams. If the Yankees are -160, the Braves -140, and the Rays are +115, a $100 wager would win $398.93. However, if the Yankees were +120, the Braves +140, and the Rays were +210, the winnings would be 1,436.80 because all three picks were underdogs.
Futures Picks: A futures wager is a bet that involves the outcome of a future event, usually placed well before the event happens. For example, the Red Sox may be +1200 in the middle of the season to win the World Series. You can make these on various events, such as winning the division, the Pennant, or simply making the playoffs.

Factors to Consider for MLB Baseball Picks

When making your MLB baseball picks, several factors are used to analyze the potential success of your selections. Handicappers use these factors to narrow down the many selections so they can recommend the best one. Here are some of the main considerations:

Starting Pitchers: Perhaps the very first area of research, whenever I start to handicap a game, is the starting pitchers for each team. I'll reference their stats-to-date, their five most recent starts, and how they have performed against this opponent in the past, just to name a few. The starting pitchers can influence the game more than any one person.
Team Performance and Statistics: When trying to break down a team's offensive and defensive potential, the following factors should help in your handicapping of the game.
1. Power and Consistency: Analyzing OPS can give you a rundown on the team's ability to generate power and their consistency to put men in scoring position. Teams that have a high OPS have a much higher chance of success.
2. Plate Discipline: Teams that can generate walks and work counts generate more scoring opportunities, making walk and strike rates something to monitor.
3. "Clutch-ness": Perhaps one of the most difficult abilities to quantify, how a team's bat with runners in scoring position (RISP), and also with two outs, can give you a glimpse into a player's, and team's, ability to perform under pressure.
4. Pitching Dominance: Besides looking at a team's starting pitchers, I look at the whole staff's WHIP (Walks plus Hits divided by Innings Pitched) and xFIP (eXpected Fielding Independent) as a way to compare pitching staffs. Dominating pitching can completely dictate the course of a game and not only smother their offense but also psychologically affect them.
5. Fielding excellence: For many years, the only stat that really measured fielding ability was the fielding percentage statistic. Recently, however, the advance of Sabermetrics has seen some new additions that can better quantify a player's ability. Defensive Efficiency Ratio (DER) measures a team's ability to convert batted balls into outs, giving you a good gauge of the overall effectiveness of a team's defense.
Injuries: Injuries are a part of the game, and a team's ability to overcome them is a hallmark of success. However, there is a statistical way to measure a player's contribution to his team. The Sabermetric stat of Wins Above Replacement (WAR) is a comprehensive stat that quantifies a player's total value by measuring their contributions compared to a replacement-level player in terms of offensive and defensive production. Comparing the WARs between the injured player and his replacement will give you a good starting point on the level of dropoff that can be expected.
Home Field Advantage: In no other sport does the home field affect play more than baseball. From the "Green Monster" in Fenway Park to the rarified air in Coors Field, teams and bettors alike must account for the nuances of each park and factor them into the handicapping.

MLB Baseball Picks from Doc’s Sports

The following section includes some individual angles from the world-class handicappers at Doc's Sports. You don't stay in business for over 50 years by not knowing what you're doing.

Doc's Sports - How I make my MLB Picks:

Doc's Sports MLB Baseball likes to split the baseball season into two halves when it comes to handicapping. The first half we like to focus on small favorites and underdogs. The second half we like to focus on bigger favorites and run lines, as teams that are out of the playoff hunt tend to use September call-ups in their everyday lineup. Often, they have traded away many of their veterans and go into full rebuild mode. That may be a successful strategy in the long run, but in the short term it leads to a lot of losses during the months of August and September.

Doc’s Sports MLB Pick Example:

7 Unit Play. Take #956 Miami -125 over Chicago (4:05p.m., Saturday April 29) Both of these starting pitchers have struggled, but Miami has Edward Cabrera on the mound, and he does not give up many hits. Look for him to manage his control and pick up the win this game. He is averaging more than a strikeout per inning pitched and Miami looks to win their third game in a row on Saturday. Chicago will counter with Caleb Kilian, a pitcher being called back up after getting pounded in limited action in 2023 (0-2, 10.32 E.R.A.). The Marlins are 5-2 in their last 7 home games against the Cubs. Chicago is 2-8 in their last 10 games played on Saturday. Miami is 7-2 in their last 9 home games.

Griffin Murphy - How I make my MLB Picks:

We always want to put our main focus on how our current team or the team we are scouting is playing. Analyze their last 10 games. Who have they played -- rising teams or struggling teams? How have we performed against these specific teams? Are we producing runs or winning on the defensive side? If we can find a matchup where we are playing good baseball in our last 10 games and we are producing runs offensively, it's time to check the pitching matchup. Always analyze a pitcher's full statistics along with his previous outing. We like to attack pitchers who have a high base on balls count. When we can find a pitcher lacking to find the strike zone, we will then look at how our team is performing offensively. What is our current offensive ranking when it comes to offensive runs scored? What is our ranking on batting average? Are we capitalizing as a team in slugging percentage, home runs, and hits? If we can find a fair matchup, although we have spotted a pitcher struggling with his control, we can now capitalize based on our offense utilizing the edge of taking advantage of pitchers getting themselves in trouble. After we have analyzed our entire scope. If it lines up, we execute the pick.

Griffin Murphy MLB Pick Example:

5- Unit Play Take # 972 San Diego (-1.5, -110) Over Kansas City. (9:40 p.m, Monday, May 15th)

San Diego is currently 10-11 at home this season, while Kansas City is 6-13 struggling on the road this season. Kansas City has Brad Keller on the Mound tonight. Keller, 3-3, 39 innings pitched, 4.31 ERA, 29 strikeouts and 32 walks! Keller finds himself in trouble often, due to his lack of control. San Diego has a powerhouse offense, Currently, 20th in OBP, 19th in slugging % and 14th in Home Runs. If Keller finds himself in trouble again due to lack of control, look for San Diego to jump on his mistakes offensively.

Take # 972 San Diego (-1.5, -110) Over Kansas City.

August Young – How I Make my MLB Picks:

Making profit in Major League Baseball is all about being willing to back the worst teams as these prices are often inflated. For example, Sub .400 underdogs in the last few months of the season are up over +5,200 since 2010 on the+1.5 runline. Oddsmakers know where the majority of action will come at this point in the season, as the average bettor will simply back the better team vs. a team with little to play for. I also like to look at more predictive metrics opposed to the usual mainstream media stuff such as ERA, BB%, and K%. Looking at metrics such as xERA, FIP, xFIP, wOBA and xWOBA is a better choice.

August Young MLB Pick Example:

8-Unit MLB: (962) New York Yankees +130 over Tampa Bay Rays (5/13/2023 @ 1:05PM ET) The Tampa Bay Rays have now lost three of their last four, and we feel they have plenty more to come. They are still over-performing on the offensive end, and the stock on Nestor Cortes is far too low right now. This is the first time in his career that he has been listed as the home underdog. That is the definition of a market over-reaction. Shane McClanahan has allowed just one earned run through his last 12.0 innings pitched, and has yet to give up more than two earned runs in a single game this season. It's almost impossible for any pitcher to avoid a rough outing, and they often come when you least expect it. We should also note that despite impressive career numbers for McClanahan, he has actually lost backers money when listed as the away favorite where he has a negative -0.2% ROI. The Yankees are 20-6 all-time at home with Cortes on the mound, while McClanahan is just 1-2 at Yankee Stadium for a -28% ROI. We show huge value on the Yankees here and have to trust our numbers and make this one our first 8-Unit this season!

Jason Sharpe - How I make my MLB Picks:

A handicapper has two ways to look at a game and find an edge when betting on baseball. The first is to put together a computer math model that incorporates many statistics in the sport, but that's a very difficult thing to do unless you have very high level computer programming skills. The second way to gain a winning edge betting MLB action is to find current information that goes AGAINST many of the key stats that are being used by the computer math model programmers. The first place that I like to focus my attention on is with the one player who has the biggest influence on a baseball game, the starting pitcher. I will look deeply into an MLB starting pitcher to see if I can find information that contradicts what many of his current stats say about how good he's pitched. I am looking to find a guy who's pitching better than what his underlying stats say about him and also if there's a reason for him improving of late with things like he's changed his pitching mechanics, he's been throwing harder, he's recently developed a new pitch, etc... When I am able to find this kind of information, I realize I likely have an edge because that pitcher is now likely going to be undervalued in the betting markets/ computer stat guys and with that he's likely going to pitch better than he's pitched in the past.

Jason Sharpe MLB Pick Example:

Tuesday April 18th 2023-

7 Unit Play Take #926 (GAME TWO OF DOUBLEHEADER) Chicago White Sox -120 over Philadelphia (7:10pm est):

This is game two of today's doubleheader between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Chicago White Sox. The Phillies are scheduled to start left-hander Bailey Falter in this one. Falter is a soft tossing southpaw who's fastball barely averaged 90 miles per hour. He has made three starts this season so far and ranks in the bottom 10% of the league in strikeouts per 9 innings (10 IP minimum). He's faced off against Cincinnati (2x) and Texas this year and both of those offenses rank in the bottom 10 in baseball this year against left-handed pitching in wRC+. Falter will go up here against a Chicago White Sox offense ranked the 2nd best team overall in MLB in offensive wRC+ against left-handed pitching since 2020 and there's no signs that won't continue this year as well as Chicago comes into this game 4th best in wRC+ in 2023 versus LHP.

The White Sox will counter with Lucas Giolito on the hill. Giolito posted a solid 3.47 ERA from 2019-2021 but he regressed to a 4.90 ERA in 2022. He dropped 35 lbs in the off-season and changed his mechanics coming into this season and those changes have really helped as his walk percentage has been cut in half from last season and his velocity has went back up. Giolito does have a 6.00 ERA in three starts this season but his xERA and FIP are actually more than two full runs lower overall. He's been hurt by some bad luck this season as his BABIP currently is above .400 despite the fact his hard hit percentage ranks among in the best 25% in the league. Giolito is also coming in off his best start of the season last time out allowing just 1 earned run at Minnesota in 6 innings pitched while striking out 7 hitters.

Play the Chicago White Sox.

Vernon Croy - How I make my MLB picks:

We always start and focus on the pitching matchup to begin with in every pick we release in MLB as that is obviously the most important aspect. Teams that have had success against pitchers in the past usually have success against them in the future. We also look to see how a pitcher has been doing lately if they are dialed in or if they are coming off a tough start. We also see how a team has done over the last several games in regards to hitting and we look at certain aspects there as well. Did they face a very good pitching team in their last series like Toronto did against New York and also the series before that against Houston who was also a very good pitching team. Similar to Chicago playing a very good Tampa Bay in their last series which would explain why their bats have cooled off. Now we have 2 pitchers that have struggled somewhat this season coming into this game and I really feel that both teams bats come alive here tonight given this pitching matchup and the fact that both teams just faced 2 very good pitching teams. We also look at the bullpens for each team along with the starting lineups, and if it was an open ballpark we would look at the weather which is not a factor here tonight in Toronto. We would also look at how each team has done against righty or lefty starter's this season depending who is starting the game as some teams have problems with lefty starter's however that is not a factor in the prediction below as we have ready on right here tonight. We also look at certain situational factors and trends as you can see in the analysis below as Toronto has not had a game go over the posted total in their last 6 games and that is because they faced 2 very good pitching teams. Similar to Toronto, Chicago has faced 2 very good pitching teams as well and they have just one game going over the posted total in their last 6 games along with one push. So this would be a very good example of how I would make a prediction on the total in MLB.

Vernon Croy MLB Pick Example:

5-Unit Play - #965-966 Chicago/Toronto GAME TOTAL OVER 9.5+100 (Tuesday, April 25, 2023, 7:00 PM)

Take Chicago/Toronto GAME TOTAL OVER as my top MLB pick for Tuesday night. I expect to see lots of runs here tonight given the way these 2 teams match up against each other and this pitching matchup. The game yesterday really should’ve gone over as well as they stranded 16 baserunners so just a matter of time until the floodgates open and Toronto has not had a game go over the posted total in their last 6 games as they faced 2 very good pitching teams with New York and Houston. Toronto has averaged 4.6 runs per game this season hitting .256 as a team and they have allowed 4.6 runs per game this season. Chicago is definitely a much better team than their record indicates and they have averaged 4.2 runs per game this season with opponents averaging 5.7 runs per game against them. Chicago's bullpen has an ERA of 6.10 this season and a WHIP of 1.707. Berrios has an ERA of 6.23 this season and he has struggled in 2 of his 4 starts this season giving up 15 hits and 12 earned runs in 9.2 innings of work in those 2 starts that he has struggled in this season. Chicago has also hit .324 lifetime as a team against Berrios with an on-base percentage of .361 and slugging percentage of .559. Opponents have hit .275 against Clevinger on the road this season and he is coming off a tough start going up 6 hits, 3 earned runs and 2 homeruns over just 3 innings of work against Philadelphia. Play the OVER

Arun Shiva (Indian Cowboy) - How I make my MLB Picks:

Here is our theory on MLB and how we approach it from a handicapping perspective.

If you've ever seen the movie "Moneyball", it focuses on Billy Beane's philosophy of baseball and how he was able to build a successful ballclub with minimal spending. His philosophy was "a walk is as good as a hit". Also "a batter hit by pitch" is as good as a hit. Don't forget "reaching on an error is as good as a hit". So essentially, it does not matter how the batter gets to first base - just that he gets there one way or another. Remember that general pitching statistics in MLB such as ERA, WHIP and wins and losses, all do not necessarily show a pitcher's true performance. There are many other statistics one can use to dive deeper such as FIP, wOBA, IR-A, HR/9 and on and on.

Another thing we look at is general situational spots. Is the pitcher off of a terrible outing, and is he likely to bounce back? Is the pitcher off a tremendous outing, and will he likely have a letdown after doing so well? How did the pitcher do vs the team he's facing the last time he pitched against them? Is the pitcher's team in dire need of a win? These are all things you can familiarize yourself with, that we have found to be successful.

Remember MLB is a marathon, not a sprint. Slow and steady wins the race. Try to stay in the wheelhouse of +130 underdogs to -130 favorites, and do not be afraid to take underdogs, especially if the public is all over the favorite. Underdogs cash in MLB and if you pick your spots, it can be highly profitable.

Arun Shiva (Indian Cowboy) MLB Pick Example:

7-Unit Play. #915. Take Boston Redsox +100 over New York Yankees (Sunday 6/12/2023 @ 7:10pm est)

We roll with the Red Sox here as they hook up against the Yankees. Remember, what you have here is a Redsox team with Bello who comes off a rare loss despite pitching well against Tampa Bay. He went 6 innings, 6 hits and 3 runs, and this was off the heels of a 4-inning, 5 hits and 1 run game against Cincinnati. Bello also went 7 innings, 6 hits and 2 runs against the Reds and has not won in his last 3 starts. This is a guy that went 6 innings, 6 hits and 2 runs against Atlanta and 5 innings, 3 hits and 1 run against Seattle. So he is due for a great start here so why not take Boston off a loss here with Bello who is motivated too? Clarke Schmidt pitches today and note that he comes off a couple of losses too but he has been shaky a bit when it comes to his walks. For example, he has given up 12 walks in 7 games, including a hit per inning in most of those games. I think this is a great spot for both Boston and Bello to bounce back given the consistency of Bello and his potential dominating nature and I think he comes through here today.

FAQ:

What are MLB picks?

MLB picks refer to predictions or selections made by individuals regarding the outcome of Major League Baseball (MLB) games. These picks can involve various aspects of the game, such as the winning team, run totals, player performances, and other related outcomes.

Who makes MLB picks?

MLB picks can be made by a variety of individuals, including baseball analysts, professional handicappers, passionate fans, and even bettors. These picks are based on extensive research, statistical analysis, knowledge of the sport, and sometimes personal intuition.

What is the purpose of making MLB picks?

The primary purpose of making MLB picks is to increase the overall entertainment value of a Major League Baseball game by having you become more "invested" in the outcome you chose to wager on. And for serious bettors, the purpose is to make a profit with MLB baseball picks.

Can MLB picks help me win bets?

MLB Picks can certainly HELP you win, but just as in life, there are no guarantees out there.

How do people make MLB picks?

Handicappers correlate a wealth of information and make comparisons between the teams, in order to narrow down the criteria and provide you with the pick that has the best chance of success.

Are there different types of MLB picks?

Yes, there are various types of MLB picks that cater to different preferences and risk levels. Some common types include money line picks (predicting the winning team), run line picks (combining a money line bet with a point spread), over/under picks (predicting the total score of the game), player prop picks (involving specific player-performances), and parlay picks (combining multiple individual picks into a single bet).

Where can I find MLB picks?

MLB picks can be found in a variety of sources, including sports analysis websites, online forums, sports betting platforms, professional handicappers, and even through personal research and analysis. Docsports.com is one of the most trusted sources of MLB Picks in the sports information industry.

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