by Mike Hayes - 03/06/2006
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With selection Sunday just days away there are more than 20 teams with their sights set on the few remaining spots in the NCAA Tournament field of 65.
There appear to be 52 locks for the tournament - give or take a team - with 23 of those coming from conferences that can likely expect to get just one invitation to the Big Dance. Add the 28 teams that have credentials that cannot be ignored by the selection committee and you're left with just 13 at-large bids.
In five of the 23 one-bid conferences there is a team that will receive an at-large bid in the event they are upset in their conference tournament, further shrinking the number of at-large bids up for grabs.
So teams that find themselves on the bubble as conference tournaments are decided will be rooting hard for George Washington in the Atlantic-10, Bucknell in the Patriot League, Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference, Nevada in the Western Athletic Conference and Memphis in Conference USA.
Realistically, though, one or more of these teams, with NCAA bids in the bank, will be upset by an upstart looking to get to the tournament the hard way, so there might actually only be 12 or so at-large bids to be decided this week.
Here's a look at each conference, who's likely in and who's on the bubble.
ACC - Locks here are Duke, Boston College, North Carolina and North Carolina State.
Bubble: Florida State, Maryland.
Projection: Both of these need to do some work. Maryland, 17-11, RPI 54, has the best chance due to a strength of schedule (SOS), considered 11th best in the nation, but will probably need two more wins for serious consideration.
BIG EAST - Connecticut, Villanova, West Virginia, Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Marquette.
Bubble: Seton Hall, Syracuse, Cincinnati, Louisville.
Projection: Seton Hall's win at Pittsburgh last week virtually assures the Pirates are tournament bound, thanks to their 5-4 mark against top 50 teams. Cincinnati, with an RPI of 31 and the fourth-ranked schedule in the nation, is also virtually assured a berth thanks to a nice win against West Virginia. Syracuse probably should get in, both on reputation and because of an RPI of 43 and a strength of schedule ranked 9th best in the nation, but a 40-point loss at the hands of DePaul last week has the Orange headed for the NIT without a couple of wins in the Big East Tournament. Louisville needed to beat Connecticut Saturday to have a realistic shot. Now the Cardinals will have to put on a hell of a show, if not win the Big East Tournament, which begins with a first round game Wednesday against Pittsburgh.
BIG-10 - Michigan State, Iowa, Illinois, Ohio State, Wisconsin.
Bubble: Indiana, Michigan.
Projection: At this point it's hard to make a case for one of these without the other as they are very similar in terms of RPI and SOS, so barring a first round nightmare in the conference tourney both are in.
BIG-12 - Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas.
Bubble: Texas A&M, Colorado.
Projection: Texas A&M probably played its way in by beating Texas last week. Colorado, 19-8, RPI 52, could use a couple more wins to pad its resume.
CAA - George Mason.
Bubble: UNC-Wilmington, Hofstra.
Projection: I find it hard to believe the 10th ranked conference will be represented by 3 teams so Hofstra had better hope it gets by UNC-Wilmington in the CAA tournament Monday.
PAC-10 - Arizona, UCLA, Washington.
Bubble: California.
Projection: Cal, 18-9, RPI 59, needs at least two wins in the PAC-10 Tournament.
SEC - Florida, Tennessee, LSU.
Bubble: Kentucky, Alabama, Arkansas.
Projection: Alabama, with a SOS of 12, is all but in and Arkansas is probably one win away from being a lock. If that's the case, Kentucky, with a better RPI than both, is also a win away from joining the lock list.
MVC- Northern Iowa, Missouri State, Southern Illinois.
Bubble: Wichita State, Bradley, Creighton.
Projection: This one is really interesting because there is little difference among the six teams, but only four will get in. Regular season conference champ Wichita State is the most likely to join the party.
Others with slim hopes of an invitation, due mostly to a SOS schedule of better than 100 are, Air Force, 22-5, RPI 37; BYU, 19-7, RPI 55; Western Kentucky, 20-6, RPI 49; University of Alabama Birmingham, 21-5, RPI 44; Wisconsin-Milwaukee, 19-8 RPI 57 and Utah State, 20-7, RPI 53.
Send questions or comments to mike@docsports.com.
The views expressed in this article are not necessarily those of Doc's college basketball picks service.
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