Super Bowl Betting History: Handicapping Defending Champs
by Trevor Whenham - 1/27/2015

We are told time and time again just how tough it is to be the reigning Super Bowl Champion. Time and again teams have fallen short of making the playoffs — never mind repeating as champions — the year after winning it all. There are plenty of reasons for that — contract situations after the big game can force a roster overhaul, egos can get out of control, the immense pressure can be too much for teams that play in tough environments, every team is out to knock the target off your back every time you play, increased media and promotional obligations can cut down on preparation time, a lack of hunger can limit how hard players work, and so on.

2015 Super Bowl Cross-Sports Props Expert Picks vs. NBA
by Alan Matthews - 1/27/2015

On Monday this week in my NHL Week Ahead story, I looked at some hockey cross-sport props with Super Bowl XLIX. I love these things so I will continue today with NBA options against the Patriots-Seahawks Super Bowl from both Bovada and Sportsbook.ag. I really wish these sites did more of these for big events. All options are pick'em and -115 unless noted.

Super Bowl Coin Toss Betting: History and Trends
by Trevor Whenham - 1/27/2015

There is not a dumber bet out there than betting on the Super Bowl coin toss. Over the long term you are just throwing money away. There is no skill involved and no chance of winning in the long term. As much as I know that it’s a waste of time, I am fascinated by it. I love that people still bet on it — quite aggressively, for that matter. So, while it’s a silly bet that I would never actually make myself, I can’t resist breaking it down and looking at the history of it — just in case I can find an edge. Which I can’t, of course — this is as random as it gets. Still…

2015 Super Bowl MVP Odds: Picks and Predictions for Betting Value
by George Monroy - 1/27/2015

The Super Bowl MVP has morphed into a quarterback’s award over the last decade. If a team with a transcendent quarterback wins the game, it’s almost certain he will be the one to win the award. Over the last eight years only two non-quarterbacks have won the award—Malcolm Smith in 2014 and Santonio Holmes in 2009—which is a far cry from the previous eight year’s where four non-quarterbacks won the award.

2015 Super Bowl Teasers Betting: Picks and Predictions for Big Game
by George Monroy - 1/27/2015

Most of the hype and media attention heading into Super Bowl week has focused on Tom Brady, Bill Belichick and “Deflate-gate”, while the rest of it has focused on Richard Sherman and the infamous “You Mad Bro?” game. However, what has been lost in the shuffle over the last few days is the actual analysis of the matchup. For bettors, the Super Bowl will be the last chance to wager on a football game for nearly seven months.

2015 Super Bowl Prop Bet Predictions and Picks: Rushing Props Wagering Odds
by Trevor Whenham - 1/27/2015

The Super Bowl is all about prop betting. Most years it seems like the most interesting of those props to break down are the rushing props. On the surface, rushing is such an easy thing — you grab the ball and run until you can’t run anymore. There is so much that goes into a successful running game, though — how well the offensive line is playing against the opposing line, whether the running back is finding gaps and making people miss, how aggressively the offensive coordinator is looking to establish the run, what the score is and what that means for game strategy on both sides, how healthy the teams really are at running back, the temperature and field conditions, and so on.

2015 Super Bowl Injuries: Handicapping and Analysis
by Trevor Whenham - 1/27/2015

What is remarkable about this Super Bowl when it comes to injuries is just how few there are. We hear all the time about how tough the season is on players between the preseason, 16 games and the playoffs. While that is unquestionably true, this year does not provide evidence to support that case. In fact, it is almost shocking how little of a factor injuries play in this game — or at least how little of a factor we can be certain that they will play.

2015 Super Bowl Props Picks: Passing Special Odds and Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 1/27/2015

This quarterback matchup is a good one. A very good one, in fact. One of the all time greats up against a new star. An old guy against a young buck. Two guys who both have Super Bowl titles and who were both drafted much later than they should have been. A traditional passer against more of a new-age quarterback. It’s got a bit of everything — and both guys just keep winning. All of the QB intrigue in this game should make it an interesting — and hopefully lucrative — one for bettors. Here’s a look at some of the more interesting Super Bowl passing props this year (odds are from Bovada):

Expert Super Bowl Picks: Matchup Props Odds for Seattle vs. New England
by Trevor Whenham - 1/27/2015

When it comes to Super Bowl prop betting, I love matchup props. Trying to figure out how two different players in the game match up requires you to not only think of those two players but also how you expect the game to turn out and what impact that would have on the performance of the players. When the matchup props are cross-sport then you have to first figure out what the prop is really asking and then how that lines up with your perception of the game. Either way, these can be both fun and oftentimes profitable.

2015 Super Bowl Props Picks with Betting Odds
by Alan Matthews - 1/23/2015

Unless you were a Seattle Seahawks fan, I'm presuming you probably didn't even know who linebacker Malcolm Smith was entering Super Bowl XLVIII last year at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey. Perhaps some 49ers fans knew him as the guy who corralled the interception -- off a Richard Sherman tip -- of a Colin Kaepernick pass in the end zone to clinch last season's NFC Championship Game against San Francisco.

2015 Super Bowl Betting: Public Bias Can Move Point Spread
by Trevor Whenham - 1/22/2015

When you are betting any reasonably high-profile game you need to be very aware of what biases and tendencies the general public is likely to have so that you can understand what impact that could have on how the lines are set and how they move. For a game as high-profile as the Super Bowl, though — and especially with two popular, strong teams like this — you have to be particularly concerned about what the public could be thinking and what it could mean for your search for value.

2015 Super Bowl Coaches: Handicapping the Men in Charge
by Trevor Whenham - 1/22/2015

The head coaches in the Super Bowl are usually a pretty big storyline heading up to the game. That is especially the case this year. There aren’t two coaches in the NFL who are any higher-profile than these two. There also couldn’t be two that are any more different. Both guys obviously know how to win a lot more than they lose, but while Pete Carroll is generally flamboyant and likeable, Bill Belichick is the human equivalent of the emperor in Star Wars.

2015 Super Bowl Quarterbacks: How Signal-Callers Shape Wagers
by Trevor Whenham - 1/22/2015

As is the case pretty much every year, the quarterbacks are going to get the bulk of the attention from fans and bettors heading into the Super Bowl this year. This year’s combination is almost tailor-made to draw attention and debate. Tom Brady is no worse than the second most popular player in the league, though there are many people who love to hate him as there are fans. Russell Wilson is divisive — some are stunned by what he has accomplished, with two Pro Bowl nods and two Super Bowl appearances in just three seasons when he was far from the most highly-touted pivot in his draft class, while others think he is just a game manager in an ideal situation.

2015 Super Bowl Halftime Betting Expert Advice and Strategy
by Trevor Whenham - 1/22/2015

I’m a fan of betting at the half of football games at the best of times. It only makes sense that you can, at times, make a solid decision when you have the wisdom of having watched an entire half to draw on. In the Super Bowl, though, my love of halftime betting increases dramatically. It is, in my eyes, the best part of betting on the biggest game of the year. To help you maximize your chances of success, here is some Super Bowl halftime betting advice and strategy.

Super Bowl Player Props Odds and Predictions: Shopping for the Best Proposition Lines
by Dave Schwab - 1/21/2015

One of the best things about the Super Bowl is the opportunity to wager on any number of proposition bets that the various sportsbooks release odds for surrounding the NFL’s biggest game of the year. However, before you run off and bet a ton of cash on these types of wagers, it’s probably in your best interest to shop the odds with a few of your favorite books.

2015 Super Bowl Handicapping: Avoid Distractions
by Trevor Whenham - 1/21/2015

One of the biggest challenges when it comes to handicapping the Super Bowl is that there’s just too much time leading up to the game. With two weeks to break everything down and only one game to look at, it can be far too easy to be distracted by stories that sound more significant than they are. The fact of the matter is that absolutely no one needs two weeks to break down a single game — or even close. One of the biggest keys to success betting on this game, then, is avoiding those distractions.

Super Bowl Betting and Money Management
by Trevor Whenham - 1/20/2015

More money is bet on the Super Bowl — by a wide margin — than any other sporting event in the United States. If you are reading this article then chances are that you plan to bet on the game, and there is a good chance that it will be among your biggest betting days of the year. There are a lot of things that go into having a successful betting day at the Super Bowl, but none are more important than Super Bowl betting money management. If you take care of your cash then you could come out on top even if you only have a decent day. If you are reckless with your cash, though, then you have very little chance of betting success — at least over the longer term.

Tips and Expert Advice for Betting on Super Bowl Prop Bets
by Trevor Whenham - 1/20/2015

Betting on the Super Bowl is the highlight of the year for most NFL bettors. What makes it most attractive for most people is the crazy number of prop bets that are available to choose from. Prop bets easily offer some of the best value available on Super Bowl Sunday. For every very attractive bet, though, there are many that aren’t worth your money.

2015 Super Bowl Opening Point Spread and Totals Line
by Trevor Whenham - 1/19/2015

This is a different type of Super Bowl than we often see. These are two titans facing off — teams that the public both really likes and which many people expected to be here before the season even started. The defending Super Bowl Champion against the only quarterback ever to play in six Super Bowls. It’s hard to get more chalky than that. In these playoffs we have gotten used to large, lopsided spreads. With the Super Bowl opening point spread and totals line it’s very clear that large spreads are not what is to be expected here. This game is tight, and early line movement would suggest that people aren’t exactly sure what to expect.

2015 Super Bowl Handicapping: Making the Best Betting Decisions
by Trevor Whenham - 1/19/2015

We’ve made it. After a long, twisty NFL season that seemed to be as much about what happened off the field as on it, we are finally ready for the biggest game there is. The Super Bowl in the end of the season, but it in so many ways it is a completely unique best to bet on. Super Bowl handicapping requires a different mindset than normal games, and an awareness of what makes this game so different.