NFL Power Rankings Week 17
by Robert Ferringo - 12/24/2024

It’s a big holiday week (mazel tov to those celebrating Hanukkah and “cool” to those celebrating Kwanzaa) so that means time is short. So rather than wasting your time with one of my witty, yet informative, introductions focusing on a trend, trait or zeitgeist of the NFL at the moment, I will let you get to the rankings.

NFL Power Rankings Week 16
by Robert Ferringo - 12/17/2024

NFL underdogs have covered the number in barely over 47 percent of all NFL games this season. And if you take out the league’s most dominant dog, the Pittsburgh Steelers, then NFL underdogs are beating the number in only 46.7 percent of all games this season. If the season were to end today, then that would be the worst showing for underdog in pro football this decade.

NFL Power Rankings Week 15
by Robert Ferringo - 12/10/2024

Scarcity equals value. The rarer something is, the more valuable it is. That’s one of the real powers (but not the only one) of the NFL and one of the reasons for its gargantuan popularity. Because there are fewer games than any of the other sports, every play, every quarter and every game receive enormous scrutiny and outsized analysis.

NFL Power Rankings Week 14
by Robert Ferringo - 12/3/2024

Mama told me there would be weeks like this. Just because I am a professional doesn’t mean that I am immune to the grotesque and indiscriminate whims of the Gambling Gods. And I have to say, last weekend was a doozy. I’ve had worse weekends. I’ve lost more money. But this one took a particular bite for some reason.

NFL Power Rankings Week 13
by Robert Ferringo - 11/26/2024

It’s Thanksgiving Week, which is the busiest gambling week of the season. As such, I’m going to keep this short and sweet. Also, this week we will be releasing our football picks at 6 p.m. on Wednesday, Nov. 27, to accommodate the Thanksgiving holiday. Happy Thanksgiving to each of you and your loved ones and good luck this week!

NFL Power Rankings Week 12
by Robert Ferringo - 11/19/2024

It is time to pay homage to Mike Tomlin. I’m not going to deep dive into his coaching achievements and his career. I’m not going to stage the debate of whether or not he’s a “great” coach or why if he’s so great he hasn’t won more Super Bowls. I don’t really care about any of that. What I do care about, and what deserves to be recognized, is that Tomlin may be the greatest underdog coach in NFL history.

NFL Power Rankings Week 11
by Robert Ferringo - 11/12/2024

Does anyone remember way, way back in the good old days of Week 1 and Week 2 of this NFL season? Remember when big underdogs were absolutely crushing it for bettors through the first month of the season? Fifteen of the first 17 underdogs of 6.0+ this season beat the number. In the first five weeks of the season, these big dogs were absolutely an automatic play.

NFL Power Rankings Week 10
by Robert Ferringo - 11/5/2024

Choices have consequences. Don’t worry – I’m not here to give you some kind of half-cocked lecture about the election. Like you, I am looking forward to this rotten business being behind us. As much as I am going to miss daily e-mails from Gretchen Whitmer and Marco Rubio, nothing will bring me more joy this winter than being able to watch a full weekend of college and pro football without seeing a single political-oriented ad.

NFL Power Rankings Week 9
by Robert Ferringo - 10/29/2024

I have been writing about football for more than two decades, and for me the bottom line has always been the same. Football is a violent, physical game. The team that is more violent and more physical is going to win more than they are going to lose.

NFL Power Rankings Week 8
by Robert Ferringo - 10/22/2024

Parity has long been one of the NFL’s superpowers. A thin spectrum of talent and ability throughout the league helps keeps things interesting. The league wants close, competitive games. They want “any given Sunday” to ring true. They want upsets and intensity and surprises to keep people coming back for more.

NFL Power Rankings Week 7
by Robert Ferringo - 10/15/2024

The North remembers. Last year the best division in the NFL was clearly the AFC North. The division sent three teams to the playoffs, including the conference’s No. 1 seed, Baltimore. All four teams in the 2023 AFC North finished above .500, and the group combined to go 43-25 straight up and 41-27 against the spread. This year the league’s best division is clearly the NFC North. And they may surpass all the gaudy numbers the 2023 AFC North produced.

NFL Power Rankings Week 6
by Robert Ferringo - 10/8/2024

Experience matters. When it comes to the NFL, I want adults at the helm. It leads to a more stable product and more consistent outcomes. NFL owners and executives have proven over and over and over again over the last quarter-century that they really don’t know what they are doing when it comes to finding and grooming head coaches and quarterbacks, with quick-tempered owners and know-nothing fan bases usually driving decision-making.

NFL Power Rankings Week 5
by Robert Ferringo - 10/1/2024

Last week we touched on the prevalence of ‘unders’ in the new, lower-scoring NFL. Quite naturally, the ‘under’ went just 7-9 last week. That’s how regression and the market works. By the time that bettors lock on to a trend, the books have already adjusted the numbers the other way. So just when natural statistics revert toward the mean, the odds have already gone in the opposite direction. This week I wanted to touch on the other marquee early season trends: underdogs.

NFL Power Rankings Week 4
by Robert Ferringo - 9/24/2024

Don’t let Monday Night Football’s two high-scoring results fool you. Scoring is still way down in NFL games this year. Through three weeks, the ‘under’ has gone 29-19 in all NFL games. Over the last two weeks, the ‘under’ is 22-10 (68.8 percent), and I don’t expect to see an eruption of scoring across the league any time soon. There are plenty of analysts that have tried to break down why scoring is down across the NFL. The proliferation of the Shanahan Offense – which is more about efficiency than big plays – and the comeback of the Cover-2 defense with two deep safeties are two major league-wide trends that have depressed scoring. Pathetic quarterback play (due to lack of proper development) is another culprit.

NFL Power Rankings Week 3
by Robert Ferringo - 9/17/2024

I’m going to continue to do this every year. I’m not going to do it as of way of patting myself on the back or showing how smart I am. I’m going to keep bringing this topic up until enough people see it and slowly but surely the general public consensus on NFL rookie quarterbacks changes. I have been talking about it for a decade, and I wrote about this very issue last season. Bottom line: starting a rookie quarterback is a terrible idea.

NFL Power Rankings Week 2
by Robert Ferringo - 9/10/2024

The satisfaction of a full weekend’s worth of NFL action, from the season-opening thriller between the Ravens and Chiefs, through a full Sunday of adrenaline, to the Monday night beatdown, was like a visit from an old friend. The true joy of last weekend was in the familiarity. Getting together with friends. Hanging out with your football-interested kids. Talking about your bets. Talking about your fantasy teams. Complaining about too many penalties. Complaining about (or begging for) Taylor Swift shots. Listening to friends second-guess offensive and defensive play-calls. Drinking. Snacking. Laughing.

NFL Power Rankings Week 18
by Robert Ferringo - 1/3/2024

So, last week I warned you against getting conned into betting on NFL teams that were in “must-win” situations. Cleveland, San Francisco, Jacksonville and Houston all came through with games that they absolutely had to have. However, the Cowboys, Rams, Colts, Eagles, Bucs, Falcons, Bills and Bengals all flopped against the spread in games that they absolutely had to have for one reason or another.

NFL Power Rankings Week 17
by Robert Ferringo - 12/26/2023

We are still in the throes of the holiday season for one more exhausting, family-oriented week, so I am going to keep this short and sweet. My advice over the next two weeks is this: good teams don’t put themselves in must-win situations. One of the primary aspects that bettors and handicappers consider when wagering on any team in any sport is motivation. “What are these guys playing for and how hard are they going to play?”

NFL Power Rankings Week 16
by Robert Ferringo - 12/19/2023

The only certainty in the NFL is constant change. Nowhere is this truism better reflected than the yearly turnover of NFL playoff teams. Dating back over the last 30 years, an average of five teams that make the playoffs one season do not make it back the next year. Usually, about half of the playoff teams don’t return. And that number is rarely, if ever, below one-third.

NFL Power Rankings Week 15
by Robert Ferringo - 12/12/2023

Instead of using this space for my normal insightful-yet-entertaining introduction, I thought I would do some house cleaning. OK, so Doc’s clients know that all of our handicappers release their football plays at 6 p.m. EST every Thursday and that covers games through to the following Wednesday, with college football and the NFL included in one package.