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The NFL’s Most Jaw-Dropping Upsets in Playoff History

by Jeremy Block - 1/21/2025

Jaw dropping NFL Playoff upsets Dak Prescott Dallas Cowboys

Let’s face it - NFL Playoffs are supposed to be predictable, right? The best teams rise to the top, the stars shine, and we all watch in awe as the most deserving squads march toward the Super Bowl. But oh no, not so fast. Sometimes, just when you think you’ve got everything figured out, the universe hits you with an upset so wild that even the most seasoned fans are left screaming at their TVs. The NFL’s playoff history is littered with jaw-dropping moments. And let’s be honest, they make for some pretty good stories.

If you think you know how things will go, just wait. Here’s a look at some of the most shocking, hair-pulling, “Did that just happen?” upsets in NFL Playoff history. Spoiler alert: it’s not always the favorites that walk away with the win.

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1. 2017 AFC Wild Card - Tennessee Titans def. Kansas City Chiefs 

The 2017 AFC Wild Card was supposed to be a snoozer. The 10-6 Kansas City Chiefs, led by QB Alex Smith, were -7.5 point favorites against a 9-7 Tennessee Titans team. On paper, it wasn’t even close. But the NFL Playoffs have a way of ignoring logic. The Chiefs jumped out to a 21-3 lead, and it seemed like they were cruising toward a win. Then, something happened. The Titans, led by Marcus Mariota, pulled off one of the most shocking comebacks in NFL history, winning 22-21.

Mariota, far from a household name at the time, threw for 205 yards -- and let’s not forget the most bizarre touchdown pass of the season, when he threw the ball, and then caught it himself to score. The Chiefs, in typical postseason fashion (at the time), completely fell apart, and the Titans capitalized.

It was a Cinderella moment for Tennessee, one that got quickly crushed by the Patriots in the following round, but still -- this was the kind of upset that makes you ask, “Did that just happen?”

2. 2023 NFC Wild Card - Green Bay Packers def. Dallas Cowboys 

Any time the Dallas Cowboys are sent home early from the playoffs, it feels like a win for humanity. The 2023 Cowboys, coming off a strong 12-5 season, were favored by -7.5 points against the Green Bay Packers, who barely squeaked in at 9-8. But in a wild shootout, Green Bay pulled off the win 48-32, stunning the Cowboys. Packers QB Jordan Love threw for 272 yards and three touchdowns without throwing a single interception or getting sacked. Meanwhile, Dak Prescott had one of those games that made Cowboys fans reconsider their life choices, throwing two interceptions and getting sacked four times.

The Packers’ victory wasn’t just a win for the franchise, it was the ultimate reminder that in the NFL Playoffs, anything can happen, no matter what your record is. For the Cowboys, it was yet another bitter postseason failure. However, for Green Bay, they proved that Cinderella still gets to go to the ball.

3. 2012 AFC Divisional - Baltimore Ravens def. Denver Broncos 

Let’s talk about “The Mile High Miracle.” The 2012 AFC Divisional game between the Baltimore Ravens and Denver Broncos was supposed to be a Peyton Manning coronation. With a 13-3 record, Manning had led the Broncos to the top of the AFC. And the Ravens, at 10-6, were just happy to be there. Denver was favored by -9 points, and it seemed like a routine win for the Broncos.

But then, with 31 seconds left and Denver leading 35-28, QB Joe Flacco dropped a 70-yard bomb to Jacoby Jones to tie the game, sending it to overtime. Flacco finished the game with 331 yards and three passing touchdowns.

In overtime, the Ravens sealed the 38-35 victory with a Justin Tucker field goal. The Broncos, who had been heavily favored by -9 points and had one of the most explosive offenses in the league, were left stunned as their season ended in the most unpredicted fashion. Baltimore would go on to win the Super Bowl that year, but this game became the stuff of legends.

4. 2011 AFC Wild Card - Denver Broncos def. Pittsburgh Steelers 

How can we forget about Tim Tebow? The 2011 AFC Wild Card featured the 8-8 Denver Broncos, led by Tebow, who wasn’t exactly known for his passing accuracy. Meanwhile, the 12-4 Pittsburgh Steelers, with Ben Roethlisberger at QB, were favored by -8 points and ready to steamroll the Broncos. But then, in a game that defied all expectations, Tebow threw for 316 yards, including an 80-yard touchdown pass to Demaryius Thomas on the first play of overtime to win, 29-23.

The Steelers’ defense, which had been one of the toughest in the league all year, was helpless against Tebow’s magic. In fact, that touchdown on the first play of OT was the only completion he made in overtime, but it was all they needed to seal the upset. Denver’s victory was a testament to playoff unpredictability and a day that will forever haunt Steelers fans.

5. 2019 AFC Divisional - Tennessee Titans def. Baltimore Ravens 

In 2019, the Baltimore Ravens were 14-2, with QB Lamar Jackson at the helm and an offense that seemed unstoppable. Meanwhile, the 9-7 Tennessee Titans had barely snuck into the playoffs, but they weren’t intimidated. The Ravens were favored by -9.5 points, but they got steamrolled by an unexpected Titans performance.

Derrick Henry ran for 195 yards on 30 carries, and the Ravens’ offense never had a chance to keep up. The Titans’ defense sacked Jackson four times and picked him off twice, en route to a 28-12 victory.

Tennessee controlled the game clock with Henry’s punishing runs, and Jackson could do nothing to counter. It was a shocking upset that sent the Ravens packing and gave the Titans a huge confidence boost heading into the AFC Championship. Even the most die-hard Titans fan didn’t expect this win, but it’s a reminder that the NFL Playoffs never play by the script.

6. 2007 Super Bowl - New York Giants def. New England Patriots 

And finally, the granddaddy of all upsets: Super Bowl XLII. The New England Patriots were 16-0 and on the brink of history. Tom Brady was playing out of his mind, and their offense was nearly unstoppable. They were favored by -12 points, and nobody expected them to lose. Then, in came the New York Giants, with a 10-6 record and Eli Manning at the helm. Nobody gave them a shot -- except the Giants themselves.

Eli Manning came out solid, throwing for 255 yards on 19-of-34 pass attempts, including two touchdowns. As for the Big Blue’s defense? They pressured Brady into an uncharacteristic performance, sacking him five times and limiting him to just one touchdown pass. But the real magic happened when Manning, under pressure, found David Tyree for a 32-yard catch -- the famous "helmet catch" -- that set up the game-winning touchdown pass to Plaxico Burress. 

The Giants won 17-14, giving the Patriots their first loss of the season and one of the biggest upsets in Super Bowl history. The Giants proved that sometimes, being the underdog is the best position to be in.

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