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2024 New York Mets Predictions with World Series Odds and Season Win Total Picks

by Ryan Cobbett - 3/6/2024

New York Mets predictions Pete Alonso

Summary of Last Season

Last season, the New York Mets put up one of the most disappointing seasons in MLB history. No, they were by no means the worst team in the league, not even close. However, they had to be the biggest loser after spending a lot of money in the offseason to bring in future Hall of Famers like Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer, just to trade them away. Despite the big spending last offseason, the Mets limped their way to a 75-87 record, finishing fourth in the NL East. They finished 23rd in the league standings.

The lineup was top heavy, and there was no supporting cast outside of the top four. Francisco Lindor went off last season, posting a 6.0 WAR en route to a 30/30 season and tallying 98 RBIs and a team-leading 108 runs. Pete Alonso led the team with 46 homeruns and 118 RBIs despite a lowly batting average of .217. Brandon Nimmo and Jeff McNeil rounded out the top four of the lineup, with the two combining for a 6.3 WAR with 35 homeruns, 123 RBIs. Francisco Alvarez broke out on the scene and clubbed 25 homeruns in just 123 games and is sure to be a big part of the lineup going forward. As a team, the Mets ranked 20th in runs, 27th in hits, 18th in OPS, 18th in walks, and 10th in homeruns.

Despite being slotted behind Verlander and Scherzer, the best performance out of the rotation came from Kodai Senga. Senga posted a 2.98 ERA across 166.1 innings with a 12-7 record, 202 strikeouts, and a 4.5 WAR. Scherzer and Verlander combined for a 4.3 WAR with the Mets before being dealt to the AL West. The other four starters to record double-digit starts were Tylor Megill, David Peterson, Jose Quintana, and Carlos Carrasco, who combined posted a 5.03 ERA with only 21 quality starts out of 79 starts. The bullpen was a strength for this club. David Robertson led the team with 14 saves and a 2.05 ERA before being traded, while Adam Ottavino finished the season in the closer role and recorded 12 saves and a 3.21 ERA. Brooks Raley was also a steady presence out of the bullpen, leading the team with 25 holds across 54.2 innings with a 2.80 ERA.

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New York Mets Key Additions/Losses

Carlos Carrasco, Adam Ottavino, Trevor Gott, Luis Guillorme, and Daniel Vogelbach all hit the free agent market after the end of the season.

Ottavino would end up coming back to New York, along with multiple reinforcements, as the Mets try to field a competitive roster to go against the Phillies and Braves. The Mets would bring in former Yankees Harrison Bader and Luis Severino on one-year deals. They would also sign multiple veterans like Joey Wendle, Luke Voit, Ben Gamel, Jake Diekman, Sean Manaea, Trayce Thompson, Jorge Lopez, Michael Tonkin, Kyle Crick, and Austin Adams. Adrian Houser and Tyrone Taylor were brought via a trade with the Brewers, giving the Mets a lot of nice pieces to fit in their roster.

New York Mets Prospect Outlook

The farm system is not loaded with top-end prospects, but there are a few names who are sure to have a notable impact in the years to come. Outfielder Drew Gilbert (2nd), infielder Luisangel Acuna (3rd), utility man Ronny Mauricio (6th), and outfielder Alex Ramirez (16th) are all bats that are knocking at the door of the big-league roster, while Mike Vasil (11th) and Nate Lavender (24th) are names to keep an eye on that could reinforce the Mets pitching staff this season.

New York Mets X-Factors

Health- Health is the most important thing to the success of this club. The pitching depth was nonexistent last season, and the Mets did a fine job filling up the rotation with Severino, Manaea, and Houser. However, there are not a lot of names that can plug in to the rotation in the event of an injury. Kodai Senga already went down with an injury, and his season could shortened as a result. The outfield was thin last season, as Brandon Nimmo was the only outfielder to play in more than 100 games. This season, Starling Marte and Harrison Bader are expected to join him, but injuries have both been frequent in their careers.

Pete Alonso- Alonso’s future forecast has been a rollercoaster to study. There are an even number of rumors about him staying and going. The Mets find themselves in a situation with their franchise star, similar to the Braves with Max Fried, that is hard to predict. Do they trade him and try to contend, or is a playoff appearance a good enough return if he walks away in free agency? If the Mets repeat their performance from a season ago, he will be traded, but the real decision comes in late July when the Mets are within five games of the division lead and in a wild card spot.

New York Mets Expectations

The expectation is to find their way back to the playoffs. This offseason, the Mets were busy trying to add veteran depth pieces, while striking gold with Luis Severino (if he stays healthy) and they may have one of the best bullpens in baseball with the return of Edwin Diaz and the additions of Jake Diekman, Jorge Lopez, and Michael Tonkin. The problem is the Mets aren’t young, and their competitive window is being elongated ever so slightly by ownerships pockets. However, with aging stars at some point the money will not work with the established core. It’s a win now situation for a team who won 75 games last season.

New York Mets Notable Odds:

World Series Champions- +5000

Pennant Winners- +2100

Division Winners- +1200

NL MVP- Pete Alonso- +2500

NL MVP- Francisco Lindor- +3000

New York Mets Predictions

Another disappointment, in a different way. Heading into last season, all the hype was around the Mets usurping the Braves. And that obviously didn’t happen as they finished 29 games back. This year there will be improvement, but the disappointment will stem from a near miss of the playoffs. I don’t expect this team to compete for the division title, and right now they are going to be the odd man out of the playoffs, missing the last wild card spot by a few games. Their current win total sits at 80.5 and I like the over, but not by much.

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