by Greg Melikov - 02/14/2006
The renovated main course at Gulfstream Park is playing much differently than previous years.
Early speed, which thrived for decades at the South Florida track even before the surface was redone and enlarged to 1 1/8 miles in time for the 2005 meeting, is taking a back seat five weeks into the season.
For instance, 36 percent of winners in 209 races at six furlongs led at every call during 2004. In the first month of last year, 39 percent of 59 sprints were wire jobs. For the entire meeting, 38 percent of the six-furlong races were captured by front-runners.
This year through the first week in February, pacesetters won only 30 percent of 50 races at six furlongs.
The average is lower in other sprints while the best running style appears to be stalking. Wire-to-wire winners in 79 races at 6 ½ furlongs were 32 percent in '05. For the first 27 races this year, the figure is only 22 percent, a point higher than horses winning fewer races at longer sprints.
I'm not sure why this is happening unless the new track is responsible. Gulfstream's main track has been 85½ percent sand and 14½ percent clay, with a 3 ¾-inch sandy cushion, ever since I've been going there and writing about it.
However, the cushion, once supported by a 3-inch sand/clay pad, now has a 7-inch pad of the same material. The once 10-inch clay/silt/sand base on top of a 6-inch lime rock/sand mixture was replaced with a 12-inch sand base on top of 8 inches of road rock.
So far, the figures are equally surprising concerning routes. Last year, for example, 27 percent of the 173 one-turn mile winners wired the field. For the first 48 races this year, only 19 percent of the horses led at every call.
Horses going 1 1/8 miles in 65 races last year won 29 percent. For the first 23 races this year, the figure drops dramatically to 13 percent.
So far, the turf course is playing about the same for routers as last year when 13 percent of 222 winners went wire to wire while stalking is the dominant running style. This year 14 percent of 57 winners have led all the way while closers are doing best.
Last year at 1 1/16 miles on the grass, pacesetters accounted for 17 percent of the 124 victories. The winning percentage at this year's meeting is 4 points lower for 30 races.
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