by Jeremy Martin
If the opening round was any indication, betting on the NCAA Basketball Tournament is as popular as ever.
According to Bob Scucci, Race & Sportsbook manager for the Stardust in Las Vegas, the handle for the opening round was equal to last year and the 2004 NCAA Basketball Tournament was the best ever at the Stardust, as well as many other sportsbooks across Nevada (no official records for tournament handle are kept by the Nevada Gaming Commission). Most of the hotels in the city were booked solid last weekend and Scucci estimates there were as many as 200,000 individuals in town specifically to wager on NCAA basketball.
"It was almost identical to last year, which was our best year ever," he said. "The handle was there, the volume was there, the people were there and we got some favorable results." The opening rounds were huge for underdogs as there were a handful of straight out upsets as well as a lot of teams that were getting many points that wound up covering the number. While this is usually the formula for a hugely successful weekend for the books, Scucci said that the public did not follow their typical betting patterns. The first two rounds of the tournament have been considered a "public betting event" in the past by most oddsmakers.
The public, considered "squares" by those behind the betting counter, have always bet the favorites at such a high rate during the NCAA Basketball Tournament that the bookies must "shade" the favorite or add points to the line, therefore giving more value to the underdog. During the regular season there is not much shading going on because the bookies must be weary of professional bettors that are looking for that extra value in the lines. But for the first two rounds of the tournament, there are so many squares betting the games that the handle that comes in from these public bettors far outweighs the handle that comes from the professionals or "wise guys." The public, at least at the Stardust, didn't follow their usual pattern this year.
Public bettors at the Stardust were on some of the big underdogs, which came as a huge surprise to Scucci. He actually needed Duke, which has traditionally been one of the biggest public betting teams, to cover the line against Delaware State because so many public bettors were backing the Hornets. And it was not just this game that shocked the Stardust manager. The public also heavily bet Vermont against Syracuse as well as Bucknell against Kansas.
"There were a lot of underdogs that covered, and that is usually pretty good for the house," Scucci commented. "I will say I was surprised at how many novice bettors and recreational players were on unknown teams. (The Duke/Delaware State game) was one of our biggest losses. The public is getting (savvier) -- I will give them that. Who would have thought, five years ago, that we would have needed Kansas against Bucknell and that we would need Duke against Delaware State?"
The Stardust manager credits the Internet and sports talk shows for the public's newfound sports wagering smarts.
"They are getting more educated so when they listen to all these talk shows and all these analysts and they find out that a lot of these unknown teams that they haven't seen all throughout the season are actually very competitive and they match up well," he said. "They read on the Internet and they hear people talking and then when they see 27 points it looks attractive. I just give them credit for being (more) educated."
Scucci did have some big wins over the course of the weekend and they outweighed some of those surprising losses. The biggest game of the weekend for the house was the Alabama-Birmingham/Louisiana State pairing on Friday night. The public was all over the favored Tigers and the Blazers won the game big.
"It was the first night of the opening round and it was a late game," commented Scucci. "Usually the late games are the biggest decisions because everyone is trying to get even and it is one of the only games left to bet on. So it usually draws a lot more volume. That was by far the biggest game for us."
The handle for this weekend's Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight will be much smaller, according to Scucci. Most of the tourists like to come into town for the opening weekend because of the high volume of games but the second weekend of the NCAA Basketball Tournament is not typically as big of a draw. While the bookies shade the favorite during the opening rounds, this weekend they will likely be once again be cautious of the wise guys.
"You are going to see a lot more shading toward the underdog and less shading on the favorite because you are not going to have all those thousands of people in town that are just going to blindly bet favorites," Scucci added. "You are going to get more sophisticated play and that usually means more underdog play."
Click Here for Doc's NCAA Basketball Tournament picks.