March Madness Betting Strategy
Top College Hoops Handicappers |
NCAA Tournament – March Madness Betting Strategy |
NCAA Tournament Betting Strategy |
Robert Ferringo |
Ride The Hot Hand |
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Doug Upstone |
Hot vs. Cold Teams |
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Strike Point Sports |
Be Aware Of Letdowns |
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Indian Cowboy |
Let The Lines Speak To You |
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Griffin Murphy |
Make Sense of the Chaos |
It is NCAA Tournament betting time! March Madness is here and every sports bettor wants a piece of the action. Things happen at a fast and furious pace this time of the year and it is important to go into March Madness with a solid plan. Planning and preparation are everything and there are a variety of NCAA Tournament betting strategies that can help gamblers show a profit betting on college basketball this time of the year.
Here are five strong NCAA Tournament betting strategies from our team of top college basketball handicappers:
Robert Ferringo: "Momentum is absolutely crucial in March. You never want to bet against a hot team in the NCAA Tournament. But you also don't want to be shy about riding a team that is on fire at the window, especially if they are one of the best teams in the country. The public loves betting underdogs this time of the year. But the teams that have won national championships and dominated this time of the year have also been absolutely devastating at the window during March Madness. Over the last eight tournaments the eventual national champions are a combined 39-9 ATS in the NCAA Tournament. The teams that have cut down the nets have combined to go 46-14 ATS the last 10 years, 72-18 ATS the last 15 years and an astounding 96-24 ATS in NCAA Tournament games the past 20 seasons. When you think you've tabbed the eventual title team go to the well until the well is dry."
Doug Upstone: The very first aspect I track is how a team has played the last month. If a club is 3-4 and lost their first game in their conference tournament and is facing an opponent who was 7-1, was second in their league and won the conference tournament, that has my attention in the first game for both teams. Always look closely at 5 vs 12 matchups. The five-seed is nearly always moving down, while a 12-seed is a conference champion. In the first weekend games, look for 10-seeds to cover more often than 7-seeds against 2-seeds, as they can be taken more lightly. Also, look for underdogs in the 7-11 point range. Once you get to the Sweet 16, identify teams that have an NBA quality big man, NBA quality point guard and team(s) that had a 10 or more game winning streak, as those are profiles of teams most likely to keep winning and covering spreads.
Strike Point Sports “I know it is strange to think about a team having a letdown in the NCAA Tournament. After all, these teams spend their whole season trying to get into The Big Dance so you would think they would give their best efforts once they get there! That’s not always the case though. Some teams exert a lot of energy in their conference tournaments. Teams get beat up playing three games in three days or even four games in four days. These powerhouse teams that cut down the nets in their league tournaments and then turn around and have to play four or five days later as a massive favorite against some no name school; that is a recipe for an upset or a game that is closer than expected. And if a team from a major conference makes a magical run to pull an upset and win their conference tournament they may find themselves out of gas when the NCAA Tournament starts just a few days later. ”
Indian Cowboy: "Let the line speak to you. Ever look at a line and think, ‘Why in the world is this good team getting nearly double-digits against this other very good team?’ Or, ‘Wow, the oddsmakers are crazy giving all these free points with this good team and this must be a mistake?’ Let it be known: The oddsmakers and books simply never give free points. So, take a moment and consider why is this team favored over this other team by so much if there are no new injuries to speak of.”
Griffin Murphy - "March Madness is called that for a reason. March Madness is chaotic but extremely profitable. Anybody can win on any given day, so your best bet is always to follow teams entering the tournament on win streaks. I consider a win streak four games in a row or more. Once you have your hot teams, identify the mismatch. Look for power conference teams playing smaller schools. It’s okay to bet on heavy favorites early on in the tournament, as this will give you a smooth up flow to know which teams should be there and which teams snuck their way in. Once the first round is finished, you will have a much better idea of which teams are going to be contenders and worth betting on, versus teams that shouldn't be there."
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