Making Money with the MAC
By Max of Doc's Sports
The MAC has always been under appreciated in the college football world. But the conference has gained respect in recent years - especially with opposing coaches and athletic directors who have scheduled MAC teams for non-conference play. During the early part of the college football season most MAC teams will schedule BCS conference teams with the hopes of pulling of a David vs. Goliath upset. The games are usually played on the road and the pointspread is usually high. But lately most BCS Conference/MAC games have been very competitive and have even produced a few straight-up upsets. The sharp bettors have been all over MAC teams in non-conference play, and for good reason. The following will show some key factors to look for and then we will analyze a few teams that have the potential to upset a heavy favorite - or at the very least to cover the spread.
Since the MAC is located right in the middle of Big Ten country, a majority of the non-conference games are played between these two entities. The first thing to look at in these match-ups is the strength of the MAC team's defense. Is the defense able to stop the run? If not, a twenty-plus point spread is probably the right number. Since the Big Ten is a run-dominated conference with the exception of Purdue, opposing teams must to be able to stop the run or they will be in for a very long day. Teams that can stop the run will force their opponent to switch to an aerial attack. The odds of stopping a third and long are much greater then the odds of stopping a third and short; where a team can just plow over the defensive line for a couple of yards. Since there are so many new quarterbacks in the Big Ten, keeping them in third and long will force them to make plays and eventually lead to turnovers that can change the tempo of the game.
The next thing to look at in this type of match-up is the strength of the quarterback for the MAC team. Since the offensive line will be outweighed by a Big Ten team's defensive line, it will be extremely tough to run the ball. Therefore the entire offense needs to be dictated through the quarterback by either passing or running the ball. A team that can throw the ball can create major problems for Big Ten teams since they are unfamiliar with that style of play. Last year there was a prefect scenario of a MAC quarterback dominating the game in Miami (OH) at Northwestern. Miami Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger threw for 368 yards as the Redhawks held the Wildcats to just 41 yards rushing. Miami dominated that game and wound up winning 41-14. This is a textbook example of how to win games against Big Ten teams.
The last thing to look at is the motivation of the MAC team. Since most of these games will be played early in the season, teams will be brimming with confidence and some may not even know how bad they actually are. Intrastate rivalries tend to produce competitive games since most MAC players were turned away by the Big Ten in-state school and had to settle for a smaller program. These players have a chip on their shoulder and will be ready to show that the Big Ten made a mistake by not recruiting them. These games tend to be close and well within the point spread.
MAC Teams to Watch Early in the Season
1) Akron - The Zips have the best offensive player in the Conference with quarterback Charlie Frye. Last season Frye completed 64.8 percent of his passes and threw for over 3,500 yards. If Akron can shore up their run defense (it was suspect last season, allowing 178 yards per game) expect them to be competitive early in the non-conference schedule. On this year's schedule for the Zips are Penn State and Virginia and they will be hefty underdogs in both.
2) Marshall - The Thundering Herd look to return to the top of the conference after a one-year absence. The main question mark going into this season is the health of quarterback Stan Hill. Hill, who has been compared to Byron Leftwich, got hurt early last season and the team was never the same. In limited action Hill threw for 1,767 yards and had better then a 2-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Their defense allowed only 327 yards of total offense. I would keep an eye of them as they play Ohio State and Georgia early this season.
3) Miami (OH) - The Redhawks had a magical season last year as they went 13-1, topping off the season with a victory in the GMAC Bowl against Louisville. During the non-conference season they went 1-1 ATS against the Big Ten and I look for a better showing this season as they will be large underdogs against Michigan and Cincinnati. If Josh Bets can do half of what Roethlisberger did at quarterback last season this will be a strong team that could repeat as champions. They have superior talent that returns at all skill positions. The Redhawks will certainly challenge Marshall for the MAC Title.
4) Kent State - The Golden Flashes will be a team to stay away from during the non-conference season. Their defense has allowed more than 200 yards on the ground the last two seasons and the outlook for this year's defense does not look much better. This is countered with a passing game that is under a 50 percent completion rate. They do not fit the profile of a team that I think can compete against the stronger conferences. It may be worth going against them early even though they will be getting double-digits alongside Iowa and probably Rutgers as well.
The MAC Conference is a strong conference that most people do not know about. The less the public knows about a team the easier it is to handicap them. Doc's will be keeping a close eye on them early in the season and we are confident winners will come about because of our knowledge in this area. If interested in winners from this conference contact Max or any of our Doc's sports representatives at (800) 356-9182.
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