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Kentucky Derby Picks, Tips, Expert Betting Predictions


Get our 2025 Kentucky Derby Picks and coverage including Guaranteed Expert Picks and Odds

California Chrome and Jockey Victor Espinoza


by Trevor Whenham - 4/25/2018

In most circumstances this is the kind of horse you would pay very little attention to heading into the Derby. His breeding doesn't jump off the page. His career has been undistinguished - marked by a history of aiming high and falling short. His connections aren't terrible but aren't at all inspiring, either. He seems outclassed. To get any attention at all a horse like this would have to do something particularly noteworthy. And on April 19 this horse did just that. That morning he had a truly ridiculous work at Churchill Downs - ridiculous in a good way.

Kentucky Derby contenders will Run for the Roses.


by Trevor Whenham - 4/25/2018

In a year when so many of the storylines are about a shortage of experience and what impact that will have on the race, it is somewhat refreshing to see a grinder like Flameaway come along. That's three times as many starts as Justify, and only My Boy Jack has run more. This colt has done a little bit of everything, too, which certainly has given him exposure to a whole lot of different things. He hasn't had the shiny success that some top runners had, but he's well bred and has strong connections. Can he overcome his shortcomings and deliver some big value at a fat price? Or will he fall short?

Some horses have a better chance than others to win the Kentucky Derby on May 2


by Trevor Whenham - 4/25/2018

Remember the story of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde? It will come in handy when you handicap Promises Fulfilled heading into the Kentucky Derby. Depending on the race, he can look like a world-class speed horse that could cause headaches for the best horses in this field, or he could look like a totally immature mess of a horse that is in so far over his head that it is ridiculous. The trick for us here it to figure out if the good version of the colt or the bad is likely to show up. It's not an easy and obvious question, but the answer might not be that difficult to come by in the end.

Jockey Brian Hernandez jr


by Trevor Whenham - 4/24/2018

Since 2013, the UAE Derby, run on the Dubai World Cup undercard in late March, has been a Kentucky Derby points race. The winner gets enough points to make the Derby field, and the runner-up does as well. Despite that ticket to the big time, and the incredible wealth owners have in Dubai, we have yet to see a horse from the race really threaten in Louisville. Last year's winner Thunder Snow was arguably the best horse that has come over, but he quit running right out of the gate. It has been a good practice for bettors to be skeptical about horses coming out of this race.

American Pharoah, racehorse


by Trevor Whenham - 4/18/2018

This is shaping up to be a great Kentucky Derby. The field is very deep, and the top end is exceptional. The 10th-place horse this year could be better than Always Dreaming was to win the Derby last year. That means that this is not going to be an easy Derby to bet on. Far from it. And that's what makes it so exciting. A winning bet here will offer real bragging rights - it will be an impressive handicapping feat. So, you obviously need to be betting on this race. But where? Need some advice on where to bet on the Kentucky Derby? You have come to be the right place. Here are your options:

Kentucky Derby winner Always Dreaming


by Trevor Whenham - 4/17/2018

I want to write about this horse not because I think he is a factor in the Kentucky Derby - he absolutely isn't. But My Boy Jack did what I have been waiting for a horse to do - use the Lexington Stakes as a Derby springboard. He had had a decent-but-unspectacular spring and had 32 Derby points - which would have him right on the Derby bubble. Instead of hoping that that was going to be enough, or heading to a tough race in the Arkansas Derby, his connections sent him to a soft spot in the Lexington at Keeneland.

Some horses have a better chance than others to win the Kentucky Derby on May 2


by Trevor Whenham - 4/11/2018

The last of the major Kentucky Derby prep races for 2018 takes place at Oaklawn Park on Saturday. In the last 15 years this has become a very important stop on the road to the Triple Crown. And I literally do mean the Triple Crown - American Pharoah won this race in 2015 as his last stop before his historic three wins to step into history forever.

Mario Gutierrez rides I'll Have Another


by Doc's Sports - 4/10/2018

The Kentucky Derby is as much about the storylines as it is about the two minutes of excitement that follows when the 20 best three-year-olds burst out of the starting gates at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May. Ahead of the most storied race in the world, here are three key things you need to know ahead of the run for the roses.

Lookin At Lucky


by Robert Ferringo - 5/5/2017

The 143th running of the Kentucky Derby commences at 6:24 p.m. on Saturday, May 6 at Churchill Downs. The Run For The Roses marks the open of the Triple Crown racing season and is one of the most highly-anticipated sporting events of the spring. The post draw took place on Wednesday afternoon without the usual fanfare. Kentucky Derby organizers have, in the past, tried to "liven up" the post draw with gimmicks such as allowing owners to pick their own post or having the draw in primetime. But this year's draw was a quiet affair that took all of five minutes this morning.

Some horses have a better chance than others to win the Kentucky Derby on May 2


by Trevor Whenham - 5/5/2017

After countless hours thinking about the Kentucky Derby, and tens of thousands of words written about it, the best two minutes in sports is now just a short time away. And it promises to be a very tough race. There are a few horses that have no chance - Fast and Accurate is a bad joke, and I have no love for Untrapped or Patch (though my dislike of Patch does not mean I am discriminating against him because he only has one eye - I'm not a monster).

Rachel Alexandra is one of only three fillys to race in the Preakness Stakes in modern times.


by Trevor Whenham - 5/4/2017

The Kentucky Derby is the king of all races for the history, the glamour, and the thrilling challenge of handicapping it every year. From a pure race consistency and quality level, though, Friday's Kentucky Oaks often outshines Saturday's big event. The Oaks is the highlight of Friday's card and the second-biggest race of the weekend at Churchill Downs. It is the equivalent of the Derby in that only three year olds can run, but it is exclusively for fillies - female horses - while the Derby is open to fillies but run almost exclusively by males.

Uncle Mo


by Trevor Whenham - 5/1/2017

The pace makes the race. Like most good clichés it's a cliché because it's true. A horse can be by far the most talented in the race, but if he doesn't dictate the pace, and that pace sets up in a way that works against him, then he can be beaten. On the flipside, If a relatively average horse gets a perfect trip he can win a race when he is nowhere close to the best in the field. That's how Giacomo won. And Super Saver. And I'll Have Another. Mine That Bird, Sea Hero, Lil E. Tee - the list isn't a short one. So, for handicappers, understanding potential Kentucky Derby pace scenarios and how they would impact different horses is key to picking a winner. And that's what we're here for today:

Zenyatta and Mike Smith.


by Trevor Whenham - 5/1/2017

The littlest men often play the biggest role in the Kentucky Derby. Jockeys have to be just insane to do what they do on any random Wednesday. On a Derby day, though, with too many young horses fired up by a massive, drunken, screaming crowd, they are truly taking their lives in their own hands. If they win they will become immortal in the annals of the sport. But that just happens for one guy each year, and a large number of the other 19 will be blamed for their horse losing. It's a very tough way to make a living.

Kentucky Derby Winner Mine That Bird.


by Trevor Whenham - 5/1/2017

There is no doubt that long shots can win the Kentucky Derby. Giacomo and Mine That Bird are clear proof of that. And this could be a good year to look for long shots to bet. The field is wide-open, and all of the top contenders have faults that make them vulnerable. Any one of 15 or 16 horses could win this field, so finding horses you like at a big price is a good way to spend your time in this race. Of course, these longer shots have even more flaws than the favorites in most cases, but they make up for it with price - or at least that's what you hope.

Garrett Gomez riding Lookin At Lucky


by Trevor Whenham - 5/1/2017

I'm a big geek when it comes to thoroughbred pedigrees, and it doesn't get any better than at Kentucky Derby time, when the best of the best bloodlines are on display. I love perusing the pedigrees because it is a portrait of the history of this great sport. More importantly, though, spending the time to get to know the pedigrees can let you know which horses have plenty of stamina in their blood and which ones could be challenged by the grueling mile and a quarter of the Derby.

Trainer Todd Pletcher


by Trevor Whenham - 5/1/2017

I have a tradition every year - one of many - that happens in the first week of May. Each year I write an article about the mess that is Todd Pletcher's history in the Kentucky Derby. It's the lowest of low-hanging fruit, but bettors need to hear it. If they are attracted to the otherwise stellar record of Pletcher then they can find themselves betting a price that doesn't accurately reflect Pletcher's massive struggles here. And no, it's not that I hate Pletcher. Actually, I have endless respect for him. It's just incredibly frustrating to see him do the same things every year in this race, getting the same dismal results, and not learning from it. I demand a lot from him because I know that he is more capable than almost any trainer alive.

Kentucky Derby contender Eskendereya


by Trevor Whenham - 5/1/2017

Part of me was waiting for Lookin at Lee to gain a spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate, and part of me was dreading it. He did not have enough points to get in on his own, but with Saturday's scratches of Malagacy and Battalion Runner by Todd Pletcher he found his way in. I've liked this horse for a long time now, and I have lost money consistently betting on him. There is a lot to like, but he has yet to be quite good enough, and he'll have to have the best day of his life next Saturday if he wants to finally prove himself.

Kentucky Derby winner Orb


by Trevor Whenham - 5/1/2017

A maiden is a horse that has never won a race. Most horses good enough to be in the Derby get their first win knocked off early in their career. In fact, it's exceptionally rare for a horse to make it all the way to the Derby without a win. Only three maidens have won the race, and none are exactly recent - Buchanan in 1884, Sir Barton, who went on to win the Triple Crown, in 1919, and Brokers Tip in 1933. Since then just 10 horses have even tried - most recently Trojan Nation last year, who was a dismal 16th. Only four of those 10 maidens have been since 1979. It just doesn't happen very often.

Trainer Todd Pletcher


by Trevor Whenham - 4/28/2017

It's both a typical and very abnormal year when it comes to Kentucky Derby trainers. Todd Pletcher has a big group of horses entered as he always does, but Bob Baffert has none. The latter will take some getting used to, and it means that this race - or at least the week leading up to it - just won't be as interesting as it could be. There are plenty of other trainers here, though, and plenty of talent among them. Let's take a look at the most interesting and compelling storylines:

Mike Smith gets the chance to ride Mine That Bird in the Preakness.


by Trevor Whenham - 4/28/2017

One of my favorite things of this time of year is writing these Kentucky Derby trivia questions and answers. I ramble, explore all sorts of interesting things, and ask questions that only other Derby geeks could come up with - or even care about. I went easy on you and only came up with eight instead of the 10 I have done in past years. If you get half of these right then you know your stuff:

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