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Kentucky Derby Picks, Tips, Expert Betting Predictions


Get our 2025 Kentucky Derby Picks and coverage including Guaranteed Expert Picks and Odds

Comma to the Top


by Trevor Whenham - 4/12/2019

The Kentucky Derby this year is shaping up as a bit of an international affair. There are sires from Japan, Canada and the U.S. represented, along with a British great that brings us Code of Honor. Sires from outside of Kentucky can and do produce winners of this race, and the connections of this one will be hoping it happens again. Code of Honor is a nice colt, but one who is hard for us to really get a sense of. Is he good enough to win the Kentucky Derby?

Midnight Lute, a horse


by Trevor Whenham - 4/11/2019

In the Derby every year, there is always a horse or two that is simultaneously both a serious contender and a lovable upstart. They have some real accomplishments and wouldn't look out of place in the winner's circle, but their story also has some Disney elements to it. This colt hasn't followed a straight line to this point, but there is enough to like that he is worth a closer look. Can Vekoma win the Kentucky Derby?

I'll Have Another, a horse


by Trevor Whenham - 4/11/2019

The Road to the Kentucky Derby this spring has been equal parts frustrating and underwhelming for long stretches. Horses that we expected a lot from have often found ways to disappoint. And a lot of big races have been won by horses who weren't exactly at the forefront of our minds before the race. The Louisiana Derby certainly fit into that category, and now By My Standards - a horse that didn't even make it into the preview of the race I wrote - is heading to the Kentucky Derby.

Justify in the Kentucky Derby


by Trevor Whenham - 4/10/2019

The Arkansas Derby is the last major Kentucky Derby prep of the year, and this year's edition has shaped up as a strong one. That's nothing new in recent years. Most notably, Triple Crown winner American Pharoah made his final preparations for his trip into history here in 2015. The next year Creator won this race and the Belmont.

American Pharoah, racehorse


by Trevor Whenham - 4/10/2019

The Lexington Stakes is not a major Kentucky Derby prep race, but it has had its moments of intense relevance. 1988 winner Risen Star and 1991 winner Hansel went on to win both the Preakness and the Belmont. Touch Gold won this race in 1997 and then became an enemy to many - including me - when he ended Silver Charm's Triple Crown bid by winning the Belmont.

2010 Preakness Stakes


by Trevor Whenham - 4/10/2019

It's no surprise that the comparisons to Justify are flying hot and heavy when people talk about Roadster. It's a bit of a lazy comparison, but there is enough in common between the two horses for it to make sense. They are both trained by Bob Baffert. They both won the Santa Anita Derby impressively after being very lightly raced. Both are ridden by Mike Smith, and both have the magical chemistry with the rider that only he can have.

Breeders Cup Classic


by Trevor Whenham - 4/10/2019

Bob Baffert must laugh at his luck at times. He has two of the likely favorites for this race already set, and as I write this Improbable hasn't run his last prep yet and could be another Derby favorite with a bit of luck as well. This horse is the reigning Two-Year-Old Champion, his breeding is spectacular, and he can run any kind of race.

Kentucky Derby entrant Mucho Macho Man


by Trevor Whenham - 4/10/2019

Bob Baffert is going to be the biggest story of this year's Kentucky Derby, as he regularly is. That's what happens when you win the Triple Crown. Twice. And while Maximum Security is not trained by Baffert, he still has an interesting connection to the white-haired master trainer. This colt is sired by New Year's Day. Baffert trained that colt in 2013, winning the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and finishing second to Shared Belief in Champion Two-Year-Old voting.

Curlin, race horse


by Trevor Whenham - 4/10/2019

This horse pioneered a path to the Kentucky Derby that other colts are sure to try to follow. He had been off to a very disappointing start to his three-year-old campaign on the Derby trail in the U.S., so instead of trying another prep race here, he headed to Dubai for the UAE Derby. It's a major Derby prep points race - the same as the big races like the Florida Derby or the Santa Anita Derby.

Firing Line, horse racing


by Trevor Whenham - 4/10/2019

The presence of this horse in this race is a total and absolute farce. There is no way around that. He doesn't belong, and he is stealing a spot from a more deserving horse. But money makes the world go around, and this horse represents a whole lot of money.

Jockey Rosie Napravnik


by Trevor Whenham - 5/1/2018

The Kentucky Derby is the main event this weekend at Churchill Downs, but the Kentucky Oaks at the heart of Friday's card is a heck of a race in its own right. If you are actually in Louisville then Oaks day is actually the more enjoyable day than the Derby in some ways - more manageable crowds, slighter fewer big hats, but just as much bourbon and a pile of good races.

Game on Dude


by Trevor Whenham - 4/30/2018

Instilled Regard is just lucky to be in the starting gate for the Kentucky Derby. After all of the prep races had ended the colt sat 22nd in points and seemed to be stuck on the outside looking in. In one day, though, Quip was aimed for the Preakness and Gronkowski suffered an infection, and suddenly the door was open. He's got a new lease on life and a shot at the toughest and most important race in North America there is to win. But is he capable of making the most of this unexpected opportunity?

Belmont Stakes winner Racjel Alexandra.


by Trevor Whenham - 4/26/2018

If you are paying attention to the media coverage heading up to the Kentucky Derby then chances are pretty good that you have heard about the Curse of Apollo. And if you haven't yet then you are going to. It applies both to heavy favorite Justify and strong contender Magnum Moon, so it is more of a factor than it usually is. Therefore, our job here today is to offer Kentucky Derby expert betting advice, so you understand what the curse is and what it means to us in 2018.

Beholder, racehorse


by Trevor Whenham - 4/26/2018

When the connections of Quip correctly decided that the Kentucky Derby wasn't the right fit for their horse, the door was opened for Combatant to make the starting gate. It's not a move that will excite anyone other than the connections of the horse. The well-bred colt hasn't made a real mark on the Derby trail, only sticking around for enough of a piece to pick up a few points here or there. To imagine him being a real factor in this incredibly deep and tough Kentucky Derby would require a far more active imagination that I have. The horse earned his spot in the starting gate fair and square, but he's not going to get the win. Not even close.

Belmont Stakes entrant Unlimited Budget


by Trevor Whenham - 4/26/2018

Firenze Fire is a reminder of how dramatically things can change in horse racing in a fairly short time. Heading into the Breeders' Cup Juvenile last year the horse had just won Grade 1 race, beating Kentucky Derby hopefuls Good Magic and Enticed, and he seemed like a decent value play at 11/1. Since then, though, he has gone from solid and interesting Triple Crown contender to the horse most likely to go off at triple-digit odds in the Kentucky Derby.

Kentucky Derby contenders will Run for the Roses.


by Trevor Whenham - 4/25/2018

The bad news is that this colt has lost his last three races - including the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, in which he was the favorite. But it could be worse. He has been beaten by just four horses in those three races - three that are in the Derby, including the favorite, and one who would have been among the top favorites if he hadn't been hurt. So, when he loses it is to top horses, and he never gets blown out. But being close isn't going to be good enough in the Derby - not in a field this strong.

American Pharoah, racehorse


by Trevor Whenham - 4/25/2018

Audible won the Florida Derby in his fifth career race to extend a winning streak and to come into the Derby with a lot of momentum. Do you know who else that describes? Always Dreaming, Audible's older stablemate, who won the Kentucky Derby to stretch his win streak to four. Audible has already won four in a row, so he's already a step ahead.

Oxbow, ridden by Gary Stevens


by Trevor Whenham - 4/25/2018

There are many handicappers who are always drawn to the 'other' horse. They could very well be looking at Solomini. When a stable has one highly-touted horse in the field, and then the trainer slips another horse into the race, it seems a little amazing how often it is that other runner that pays off - and often at a big price. Bob Baffert runs multiple horses in lots of races, so he is a frequent target of such bettors. And with the very heavily, and legitimately by these eyes, hyped Justify towering over this field, Solomini is definitely the 'other' Baffert horse.

Paynter, Breeders' Cup entrant


by Trevor Whenham - 4/25/2018

Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum is perhaps the most powerful owner of thoroughbreds in the world. Between his Godolphin and Darley operations he has won most races in the world worth winning. He is the driving force behind the Dubai World Cup, for example, and has won his own race a ridiculous nine times. Despite an international presence, the one area where he has not had a lot of success is in Triple Crown races. He won the 2006 Preakness with Bernardini, and that is the sum total of it. He had high hopes last year with UAE Derby winner Thunder Snow, who went on to win the Dubai World Cup this spring, but that colt bizarrely stepped out of the gate last year and refused to run.

Super Saver


by Trevor Whenham - 4/25/2018

There are so many reasons to question Magnum Moon. He is trying to win the Kentucky Derby despite not having run a race as a two-year-old. In a trend so pronounced that it has a fancy name - the Curse of Apollo - no horse has been able to do that since Apollo did it way, way back in 1882. Many have tried, including some that have gone on to become legends, like Curlin, but none have pulled it off. He's also started only four times.

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