Kentucky Derby Picks, Tips, Expert Betting Predictions

2015 Kentucky Oaks Picks with Odds and Expert Betting Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 4/29/2015

It’s an oversubscribed field of 15 horses entered in the Kentucky Oaks on Derby eve this year, but only 14 will run. Don’t ask me why they limit the Oaks to 14 while 20 can enter the Derby — it makes no sense. It isn’t the greatest field ever set for the race, but it’s more than solid and respectable. Oaks day can be an excellent warmup for bettors and a chance to get a sense of how the track is playing and what it could mean for the next day when all the marbles are on the line.

Todd Pletcher in the 2015 Kentucky Derby
by Trevor Whenham - 4/29/2015

It’s time now for what has become an annual tradition in recent years. This is where I tell you why betting on Todd Pletcher in the Kentucky Derby is a lousy idea despite the fact that he could have as much as 20 percent of the field racing under his name this year. He is the most successful trainer in North America and a seemingly annual winner of the Eclipse Award for top trainer.

Will there be a Triple Crown Winner in 2015? Odds and Expert Betting Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 4/28/2015

This time of year — the week of the Kentucky Derby — is when thoughts of a Triple Crown winner really intensify. Well, really, those thoughts reach their peak after the Derby has been run and we can judge whether we think the winner is worthy of joining Secretariat, Seattle Slew and the other all-time legends. Looking at it now is a bit more fun, though, because we aren’t bound by reality — we can dream about whatever horse we think is best and consider their chances accordingly.

2015 Kentucky Derby Handicapping: Champion Pedigrees
by Trevor Whenham - 4/28/2015

One of my favorite things to do during the lead up to the Kentucky Derby is to study the pedigrees of the runners. For one thing, the quality of horses that are good enough to race at this level is usually very impressive. Each year there are different trends and tendencies that emerge that will be good subplots for the race.

Keen Ice Odds to Win the 2015 Kentucky Derby with Picks and Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 4/28/2015

You can’t win the Kentucky Derby unless you are in the Kentucky Derby. That’s just a fact. That fact almost became an insurmountable barrier for Keen Ice. He didn’t have enough points to get into the field on his own and only made it in after Todd Pletcher chose not to enter Madefromlucky. He’s getting his chance now, though, and his connections believe in him.

Handicapping the 2015 Kentucky Derby Trainers
by Trevor Whenham - 4/23/2015

As is always the case, there is no lack of good storylines surrounding the trainers in this year’s Kentucky Derby. Trainers are interesting — they are the biggest factor in the development of the horses and their ability to race on the big day, but on the actual race day, and especially in the race itself, there is nothing they can do to help their horse reach the finish line first. It is out of their hands — and you can tell that it drives most of them crazy.

Bolo Odds to Win the 2015 Kentucky Derby with Picks and Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 4/23/2015

There are so many horses in the Kentucky Derby that are tough to figure out because they are so well-matched and competitive. Luckily, there are others, like Bolo, which we don’t need to spend too much time worrying about. He showed promise earlier in his career, but now he just doesn’t seem fast enough or particularly suited for the dirt track he’ll have to run over.

Kentucky Derby Trivia Questions and Answers for 2015
by Trevor Whenham - 4/23/2015

As has become a tradition, I have assembled some really tough Kentucky Derby Trivia questions and answers for you. If you get five of the eight correct then you really are a champion in your own right. So here are some trivia questions and answers for 2015:

2015 Kentucky Derby Betting Tips and Expert Wagering Advice
by Trevor Whenham - 4/22/2015

In the best of years, winning money betting on the Kentucky Derby requires a much bigger dose of luck than most races — and much more luck than most handicappers would admit. When the field is as deep and talented as this year, though, the difficulty factor ratchets up even higher. To try to decipher this brutally-tough field this year — just deciding between the two Bob Baffert horses is next to impossible, never mind the other 18 runners — here are five Kentucky Derby betting tips to keep in mind:

2015 Kentucky Derby Handicapping: Experience and the Curse of Apollo
by Trevor Whenham - 4/22/2015

If you have been following the Kentucky Derby for any amount of time then you have probably heard of the Curse of Apollo. To put it simply, this is as airtight a trend as you will ever see in sports of any kind. Apollo was a presumably great race horse, though one far before my time — and I can’t exactly check him out on YouTube.

2015 Kentucky Derby Betting Trends and Handicapping Advice
by Trevor Whenham - 4/22/2015

In a good year the Kentucky Derby is very tough to handicap. In years like this one, though, it’s almost impossible. Both American Pharoah and Dortmund look like they could be generational talents. To win, though, they will not only have to beat each other but also a top end field as deep and talented as we have seen in a long time. Carpe Diem would be favored any other year, and horses like International Star, Froster, Materiality, Mubtaahij, and Firing Line are far easier to like than your typical random Derby entrant.

Ocho Ocho Ocho Odds to Win the 2015 Kentucky Derby with Picks and Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 4/16/2015

I was intrigued and even excited by this horse heading into the Blue Grass Stakes. I didn’t expect him to beat the very good Carpe Diem, but I thought he could be second best. In a race with some really great horses at the top like this Derby, I am always on the lookout for longer-priced horses that offer some value.

Itsaknockout Odds to Win the 2015 Kentucky Derby with Picks and Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 4/16/2015

I should admit a bias right up front. I am passionate about almost all things Kentucky Derby. One thing I absolutely can’t stand, though, is a second-tier Todd Pletcher horse. Pletcher struggles to get even his best horses to perform on Derby day, and in his pursuit of quantity over quality he often puts horses in the race that would be much better suited in other, lower-profile spots.

Far Right Odds to Win the 2015 Kentucky Derby with Picks and Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 4/16/2015

Far Right is a nice horse. On his best day he could be a factor in big races. That is precisely the problem with the Kentucky Derby this year. There are just so many good horses running — and a few that could be absolutely exceptional — that it will be much harder than normal for horses like this one to break through and for bettors to figure out what to do with them.

Mr. Z Odds to Win the 2015 Kentucky Derby with Picks and Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 4/16/2015

Mr. Z is the worst of the three horses that Zayat Stables is aiming for the Kentucky Derby. First, though, you can’t have too much sympathy for Zayat — or any other owner who is in position to start three horses in the biggest race there is. Second, there is no shame in being third best behind the decent El Kabeir and the truly brilliant American Pharoah. So, can Mr. Z eclipse his stablemates and win the Kentucky Derby? Oddsmakers don’t think so — at 85/1 in early futures action at BetOnline he is tied for the longest odds in the field. That’s not that flattering.

Tencendur Odds to Win the 2015 Kentucky Derby with Picks and Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 4/16/2015

In a very deep, talented and highly-memorable field for the Kentucky Derby this year, if there is one horse that fades into the background for me it’s Tencendur. It’s not that I think he is the worst horse in the field — far from it, actually. He’s maturing quickly and coming off a strong race. It’s just that he doesn’t elicit any real emotion. Others either strike me as potential megastars, or in the case of Itsaknockout and others I just don’t feel like they belong.

American Pharoah Odds to Win the 2015 Kentucky Derby with Picks and Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 4/15/2015

Wow. Just wow. If American Pharoah had completely and utterly bombed last weekend, this would still be one of the most impressive Kentucky Derby classes in the last decade or more. Of course, American Pharoah, the reigning two-year-old champion, did not bomb. Far from it. In fact, he really couldn’t have looked any better than he did in the win. In a year of great and dominating prep race wins, his was the greatest and most dominating.

Danzig Moon Odds to Win the 2015 Kentucky Derby with Picks and Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 4/15/2015

I will certainly not complain, but if there is a problem with having a Derby field as deep and talented as this one it’s that it makes it hard to back a horse like this one that in most years I would really like in the Derby. He has a lot of development he needs to do between now and that race, but I have liked a lot of what I have seen, accept excuses for the disappointments, and think he could be sitting on a big race. I’m not convinced that he is good enough to beat the likes of American Pharoah, Dortmund, or Carpe Diem, though.

El Kabeir Odds to Win the 2015 Kentucky Derby with Picks and Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 4/15/2015

The path to the Kentucky Derby reminds us each year just how much of a factor timing is. If the race was in early February, or even early March, instead of early May, then this horse would be a much bigger factor in the betting than he is likely to be now. He hasn’t been terrible since then, but the enthusiasm has certainly dimmed somewhat. Now he sits at 40/1 to win the race according to BetOnline.

2015 Arkansas Derby Picks with Odds and Expert Betting Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 4/10/2015

We are down to the final moment before the biggest of moments. The Arkansas Derby, taking place on Saturday at Oaklawn Park, is the last of the major Kentucky Derby preps. A first- or second-place finish provides enough points to get into the Kentucky Derby field, and other horses with points already could earn enough from a lower finish to wind up in the field. After this race ends, all we have left to do is wait for the Kentucky Derby, watch the training, and second guess ourselves a hundred times before finally placing our bets.