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Kentucky Derby Picks, Tips, Expert Betting Predictions


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Garrett Gomez will be aboard Pioneerof the Nile in the 2009 Preakness Stakes at Pimlico.


by Trevor Whenham - 4/27/2016

The Kentucky Derby is my favorite thing to bet on each year - and it's not even close. That's not a rational decision by any means - there are few events as tough to handicap effectively as this one. Horses are being asked to run further than they ever have before, and they have to do it in a ridiculously full field in front of 160,000 screaming people drunk on mint juleps. These horses come from all over the country, and few have seen each other before this race.

American Pharoah, racehorse


by Trevor Whenham - 4/27/2016

I have been a huge sports fan for most of the last four decades. Nothing in that time has been as special or memorable as last year's Triple Crown win by American Pharoah. I had waited for a truly special horse to do the almost impossible when I was old enough to appreciate it - I was alive for Seattle Slew and Affirmed, but still in diapers - and had had my heart broken so many times by close calls.

Mario Gutierrez rides I'll Have Another


by Trevor Whenham - 4/27/2016

Every class of three year olds is completely unique. That is just one of the many things that makes handicapping the Kentucky Derby so difficult. Over the years, though, trends have emerged that have helped us narrow the field down to find more likely winners. These trends aren't ironclad guarantees, and there are exceptions to each, but lately they have proven more likely to point out a winner or not.

I'll Have Another


by Trevor Whenham - 4/27/2016

This is an odd Kentucky Derby field in so many ways. There are a lot of intriguing horses, but none - with the possible exception of Nyquist if you are more optimistic than me - that seem to be on the road to superstardom. There is certainly no American Pharoah here, and the number of horses that seem to be potentially exceptional is fewer than in most years. On the other hand, though, the level of talent doesn't drop off nearly as steeply this year as most years. The top three horses aren't as strong as most years, but the 16th horse in the field this year is much more competitive than that level of horse is most years.

Kentucky Derby contender Eskendereya


by Trevor Whenham - 4/26/2016

Sir Barton. That is the horse that Trojan Nation and his connections need to be motivated by. The great Triple Crown winner of 1919 had raced six times before the Kentucky Derby without a win. He wasn't even entered to win the Derby. He was supposed to set a fast pace for a closing stablemate. He got the lead early and never looked back, running away with the win - and then two more to follow. It is a story out of fairy tales.

Kentucky Derby contenders will Run for the Roses.


by Trevor Whenham - 4/25/2016

This is a very odd Kentucky Derby. Most years when I sit down to write this particular article it isn't too tough to pick the five or six elite contenders from the rest of the field. This year, though, it is tough to spot the truly elite horses and tougher still to find five or six that you could definitively say have little chance. Despite the presence of a likely strong favorite in Nyquist, this is as wide-open a field as I remember in a while.

Trainer Todd Pletcher


by Trevor Whenham - 4/25/2016

The horses do the work. The jockeys make the decisions in the race that let the horses do that work. The trainers try to make the horses as ready as they possibly can to do their work. It's a partnership with three crucial parts. The trainers are the only ones that frequently have to worry about more than one horse in the field. They are also the ones that can make the most money - but also face the most stress. This year's Kentucky Derby has an interesting collection of characters in the role as trainer - from the very familiar to the completely obscure. Here are the highlights:

Some horses have a better chance than others to win the Kentucky Derby on May 2


by Trevor Whenham - 4/25/2016

As we traditionally do every year, I have assembled a collection of very tough Kentucky Derby trivia questions and answers for you to test yourself with. If you get more than five of these right then you really know your stuff - and you might want to get a hobby outside of horse racing.

Jockey Mike Smith


by Trevor Whenham - 4/20/2016

When Danzig Candy was pointed to the Kentucky Derby, which was no certainty after his last race, we were sure of at least one thing - there is going to be some early speed in the race. Likely favorite Nyquist and Wood Memorial winner Outwork both have early speed, but both have also shown that they don't need to be in the lead if things don't work out that way.

Beholder, racehorse


by Trevor Whenham - 4/20/2016

In eight career starts Creator has won only twice and just once outside of maiden company. On the road to the Kentucky Derby, though, it's often not about how many races you have won. It's about when you won them. His had been a largely underwhelming career through seven races. He looked nothing like a Derby contender. That eighth race, though, was the Arkansas Derby - one of the small handful of major Kentucky Derby prep races. By winning that race, and doing it pretty impressively against a deep field, he suddenly became a Derby contender - and nothing that came before mattered.

Uncle Mo


by Trevor Whenham - 4/20/2016

Heading into the Kentucky Derby, Suddenbreakingnews has a bit of a problem. This year he has alternated good races and bad, and he is coming off a pretty good one. That could suggest that he won't be at his best in the biggest race on the planet. Of course, the sample size is small, and we need to rely on much more than simple little patterns when it comes to handicapping the Derby.

Comma to the Top


by Trevor Whenham - 4/20/2016

Sometimes success doesn't come from being the best. It comes instead from just showing up consistently and being pretty good. Good attendance plus decent talent - it's not inspiring, but it was enough to get Whitmore in the Kentucky Derby. That's more than all but 20 horses a year can claim. So, is just showing up and being somewhat talented going to be enough to allow this horse to make a statement in the Kentucky Derby? Or is this when Whitmore runs into too much talent and pretty good is no longer good enough?

Kentucky Derby contenders will Run for the Roses.


by Trevor Whenham - 4/14/2016

The Lexington Stakes is not a major Kentucky Derby prep race. Not even close - the Florida Derby, Louisiana Derby, Arkansas Derby, Wood Memorial, Santa Anita Derby and Blue Grass Stakes award 100 Derby points to the winner and 40 to the runner-up. In this race only 10 points are up for grabs for the winner. It is likely going to take more than 30 points this year to get a spot in the Derby starting gate, so winning this race alone doesn't help.

Beholder, racehorse


by Trevor Whenham - 4/14/2016

My Man Sam is looking to become the next Palace Malice. Or Street Sense. Or Louis Quatorze. Or Gato del Sol. All four of those horses, like My Man Sam this year, finished second in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland leading up to their Kentucky Derby appearance. All four then went on to win a Triple Crown race - the Derby for Street Sense and Gato del Sol, a Preakness for Louis Quatorze, and the Belmont for Palace Malice.

Master of Hounds


by Trevor Whenham - 4/13/2016

From now on the Arkansas Derby will always be known as the last prep race that American Pharoah ran before he went on to win the Triple Crown. It's a worthy distinction for a great race, but it isn't the only thing that has made this race remarkable over the last dozen years or so. Smarty Jones won the race in 2014 then won the Derby and Preakness. The next year Afleet Alex won, inexplicably bombed in the Derby, then won the Preakness and Belmont handily.

Take of Verve, racehorse


by Trevor Whenham - 4/13/2016

For so long the Blue Grass Stakes was a truly great Kentucky Derby prep race. I mean, Northern Dancer won the freaking thing! Recently, though, a synthetic track at Keeneland robbed the race of virtually any meaning at all. The dirt is back, though, and with it, hopefully, the glory of this race. It only makes sense that it should be great - what better place to prep for the Kentucky Derby than just 80 miles down the road. So, will Brody's Cause, the 2016 winner, be the one that turns the tide and makes the race important and legendary again? Or will we still be waiting for another year?

Garrett Gomez riding Lookin At Lucky


by Trevor Whenham - 4/13/2016

To type the name Shagaf you don't need to venture beyond the first six letters on the middle row of your keyboard. For a guy who punches a keyboard as much as I do that's a pleasing fact. Irrelevant, but pleasing. How does it affect him heading into the Kentucky Derby? Probably less than not at all. That doesn't mean that our time was wasted talking about it, though.

Jockey Joe Bravo


by Trevor Whenham - 4/12/2016

Todd Pletcher is heading back to the Kentucky Derby with more than one horse. That's hardly a breathtaking revelation - this is the fourth year in a row and the 12th year in the last 13 that he has entered multiple horses in the race. It hasn't always gone well for him, of course - he has just one win over that stretch despite 35 tries. He seems to think that quantity is key, though, and with Outwork's win in the Wood Memorial he has his second horse heading to Churchill Downs, joining Destin.

Kentucky Derby contenders will Run for the Roses.


by Trevor Whenham - 4/11/2016

Bob Baffert is heading back to the Kentucky Derby, but it won't be quite the same as last year. Last year he had the two best horses in the field heading into the race, and one of them went on to win the Triple Crown. He could have two more horses this year, but with respect to Mor Spirit and potentially Cupid, neither is American Pharoah. That's no insult, of course - very few horses in my lifetime have been anything like American Pharoah.

Kentucky Derby contenders will Run for the Roses.


by Trevor Whenham - 4/11/2016

Last year was supposed to be the dream year on the Triple Crown for the Desormeaux brothers - trainer Keith and jockey Kent. They had won the 2014 Breeders' Cup Juvenile with Texas Red, and the breeding of the horse made it seem like he had only scratched the surface of what was possible. As is so often the case, though, things didn't work out. The horse struggled with injuries, and another California-based runner won the Triple Crown.

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