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Kentucky Derby Picks, Tips, Expert Betting Predictions


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Belmont Stakes entrant Unlimited Budget


by Trevor Whenham - 4/10/2017

Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer is a legend, but the last four year he has been snakebit when it comes to the Triple Crown. He has arguably had the best three year old in training in three of the last four years, and he hasn't managed to get one to Kentucky on the first weekend in May yet. In 2014 the previous year's two year old champion Shared Belief was injured on the way to Derby and missed the Triple Crown entirely.

Ria Antonia


by Trevor Whenham - 4/6/2017

The Wood Memorial used to be one of the great races in the country. Four Triple Crown winners won this race en route to the Kentucky Derby -- Gallant Fox, Count Fleet, Assault, and Seattle Slew. Almost countless other Triple Crown race winners and horses that went on to be legendary sires have won it as well. In recent years, though, the race just hasn't been the same.

Master of Hounds


by Trevor Whenham - 4/6/2017

State of Honor will never be mistaken for the best horse in this Kentucky Derby field, but he's the kind of horse you can't help but respect. He has just one win in 10 career starts, but since breaking his maiden in his fifth race he has run only in stakes races, and he has finished second four times and third once. He hasn't proven to be quite good enough, but he always finds a way to be a part of things. He's a warrior.

Midshipman with jockey Garrett Gomez


by Trevor Whenham - 4/6/2017

Every year we face the same challenges when it comes to handicapping the Kentucky Derby. In this case, we need to know how to deal with a massively talented and most impressive colt coming off a very much sub-optimal performance. Were we too optimistic about his real chances heading into the last race, or was that just a bad day that doesn't reflect what he really is?

American Pharoah, racehorse


by Trevor Whenham - 4/5/2017

In recent years the Santa Anita Derby has been a hugely-important step on the Triple Crown trail. I'll Have Another won this race and both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness in 2012. California Chrome pulled off the same triple two years later. Dortmund won this race in 2015, and though he finished third in the Derby he was good enough to win it any year that the freakish American Pharoah wasn't entered. Last year Exaggerator won both the Santa Anita Derby and the Preakness. It's a real reversal for this race, which was mostly irrelevant for the period that it was run on a synthetic track.

Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner California Chrome


by Trevor Whenham - 4/5/2017

Todd Pletcher is likely heading to the Kentucky Derby with a big group of runners again, and Always Dreaming may be the best of the group. He doesn't have a whole lot of experience to draw from, and he has only one stakes win, but the three races the horse has run in 2017 have been wildly impressive. So, will this horse succeed where so many prior Pletcher horses have failed? The one thing we know for sure is that in this mostly underwhelming group of horses this year there are certainly a lot of horses less likely to win the Derby than this one.

Beholder, racehorse


by Trevor Whenham - 4/5/2017

It's not exactly accurate to say that Fast and Accurate is fast. Or inspiring. Or particularly deserving of a spot in the Kentucky Derby. Yet here he is. He has the points to get in and an owner who is rich enough and crazy enough to pay the $200,000 late nomination fee because the horse was not even Triple Crown nominated heading into his Kentucky Derby prep race.

Animal Kingdom


by Trevor Whenham - 4/5/2017

If I owned a horse that earned enough points to run in the Kentucky Derby, I'd be there no matter how slow the horse was, how small his chances were, and how questionable the way I earned those points. I mean, think about it - owners get great seats, invitations to all the parties, barn passes, and so much more. It's like the ultimate VIP experience. That, I assume, is the thinking behind sending Hence to the Kentucky Derby.

Nyquist, Kentucky Derby winner


by Trevor Whenham - 4/4/2017

I have to start by saying how great it is to have the Blue Grass Stakes actually mean something again. From 2007 to 2014 Keeneland was a synthetic track, and a quirky one at that, so the race produced Kentucky Derby entrants but none that were particularly relevant. This is the third time they have run the race since returning, mercifully, to dirt, and now again this is a very important prep race. And it should be - this is the race that has produced some historic heroes over the years.

Kentucky Derby winner I'll Have Another


by Trevor Whenham - 3/2/2017

It seems like the Gulfstream Park set of Kentucky Derby prep races - the Holy Bull, Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby - are often the most interesting. We've seen memorable performances in each in recent years, and there is never a shortage of good horses enjoying the winter sunshine and looking to book their ticket to Churchill Downs.

Stay Thirsty, trained by Todd Pletcher


by Trevor Whenham - 3/2/2017

While the smart New York-based trainers escape the harsh winner and general dullness of Aqueduct and head south to Florida for the winter, there are those who bravely choose to stay behind. For them the Gotham Stakes serves as both a way to earn a ticket to the Kentucky Derby and a warmup for the Wood Memorial. Unfortunately, the New York prep races haven't been hugely relevant in recent years, but hopefully things change this year.

Kentucky Derby contender Eskendereya


by Trevor Whenham - 2/23/2017

The path to the Kentucky Derby enters a new phase with the Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds in New Orleans this weekend. This is the first domestic race with 50 Derby qualifying points available to the winner. That has been more than enough to get into the Derby field ever since this new qualifying format was launched, so this is the first of the de facto win-and-you're-in races.

Oxbow, ridden by Gary Stevens


by Dave Schwab - 5/6/2016

While picking "to win" bets in the annual "Run for the Roses" probably account for much of the betting action this race pulls in, some of the best chances to actually cash in on a winning ticket revolve around the betting odds that are released for any number of special prop bets in conjunction with horse racing's biggest betting event of the year.

I'll Have Another, a horse


by Trevor Whenham - 5/5/2016

I feel a sense of dread right now. A big one. For the last few weeks - more than I want to admit - I have been doing little other than thinking about and getting ready for the Kentucky Derby. Now, with the post positions drawn and everything set, I find myself with less of an idea of how things are likely to turn out than I have had for years. This is one muddy field.

Trainer Todd Pletcher


by Trevor Whenham - 5/5/2016

Every year I sit down and write an article about why betting on Todd Pletcher in the Kentucky Derby is a truly lousy idea. I talk about how he is a great trainer yet how he is spectacularly not great on the first Saturday in May. I pull out the stats of just how bad he is in the race, and update them with the latest numbers so that they get even worse.

Mike Smith gets the chance to ride Mine That Bird in the Preakness.


by Trevor Whenham - 5/4/2016

I remember Kentucky Derbies as tough as this one to handicap, but I certainly don't remember any harder. Last year we were so spoiled - the clear class of the field was obvious, and all you had to do was figure out how to deal with the two or three truly elite horses. This year, though, there isn't an elite horse in these eyes, but there are 15 or 16 that stand a reasonable chance, if everything goes their way, of winding up wearing roses. That makes picking a winner mind-numbingly challenging.

Rachel Alexandra is one of only three fillys to race in the Preakness Stakes in modern times.


by Trevor Whenham - 5/4/2016

The Kentucky Oaks kind of sucks this year. Harsh, but true. Typically a great race, this year's edition was robbed of all excitement when Songbird fell ill and was scratched. She is the best three year old in training right now - of either gender - and it's not even close. She's one of those effortless freaks that makes the sport look far too easy.

Kentucky Derby contenders will Run for the Roses.


by Trevor Whenham - 5/3/2016

There is nothing more important when it comes to handicapping the Kentucky Derby than understanding the pace - where horses want to be during the race, how likely they are going to be able to be there, and what it means for the race. Unfortunately, because of the size of the race, the distance which is new to every horse, and the general craziness of the Derby, there are also few things tougher than handicapping the pace in the Derby. All you can do, really, is chart where you expect horses to be, try to figure out what it all means, and then hope for the best.

Kentucky Derby entrant Done Talking


by Trevor Whenham - 5/3/2016

Studying pedigrees is an art and science that takes a lifetime to understand. At the heart, though, handicappers study pedigrees for one reason - to try to understand if a horse is capable of doing something it hasn't done before. That's especially important in a race like the Kentucky Derby when every horse is being asked to run further than they ever have - and further than most horses are capable of doing effectively. By looking at the bloodlines of runners we can get a sense of which horses are well-suited, and which ones could be over their heads.

Mike Smith gets the chance to ride Mine That Bird in the Preakness.


by Trevor Whenham - 5/3/2016

The littlest guys in the Kentucky Derby are often the most interesting. The jockeys can make or break the race. A good ride can turn a contender into a winner, and a bad ride has doomed many great horses in this event. In a race as wide open as the 2016 edition of the Kentucky Derby is, it's more than likely that after the race we will be talking about a rider and the difference they made in the end. It is, as always, a compelling group of riders assembled this year. Here's a snapshot of 11 of the more interesting stories:

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