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Kentucky Derby Picks, Tips, Expert Betting Predictions


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Some horses have a better chance than others to win the Kentucky Derby on May 2


by Trevor Whenham - 4/27/2017

As I see it, the first Saturday in May is the reason betting was invented. There is nothing I like to bet on more than the Kentucky Derby. That means I'm not very smart, because it is also one of the toughest things to bet on most years. Horses have to run further than they have ever run before and further than many of them are really bred to run.

Midshipman with jockey Garrett Gomez


by Trevor Whenham - 4/27/2017

You can never get bored handicapping the Kentucky Derby, because every year is completely different. Getting down to 20 horses that enter the gates means that we watch hundreds of horses through the winter and spring. Some years we see horses dominate. Other years, like this year, horses take turns winning key races. In 2015, for example, I knew for months that only two horses mattered, and the only challenge was ordering Dortmund and American Pharoah.

Breeders' Cup Blind Luck


by Trevor Whenham - 4/27/2017

Untrapped had to wait to get his spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate. In fact, as I write this he isn't technically even in, but two horses above him are poised to scratch and he needs only one to make way for him. While he will take the spot if it is offered, and you can't blame any owner or trainer who gives the race a shot, this is one of those horses who seems like he would be more appropriately aimed for a different spot than this one.

2013 Kentucky Derby


by Trevor Whenham - 4/26/2017

About 10 days before the Kentucky Derby every year I write this same article about horses that can win the Kentucky Derby. Never has it been tougher to write, because never have I felt like I knew less. There are 20 horses that are likely to enter the Kentucky Derby. And about 18 that you could make a pretty solid case for. This race is almost comically wide open this year.

American Pharoah, racehorse


by Trevor Whenham - 4/26/2017

I can still close my eyes and watch American Pharoah storm down the stretch at Belmont to break a long string of heartbreak and claim his place in immortality. It was one of the great days of my life. It also spoiled us. Casual racing fans are again able to forget just how incredibly tough winning the Triple Crown is. It's absolutely brutal, and it's take an extremely special horse to do it. When you look back at past winners you realize that they didn't become greats by winning it - they won it because they were great. So, I will bravely face the same question I get every year - will there be a Triple Crown winner in 2017? The short answer is simply "no". Here are four good reasons why:

Rachel Alexandra is one of only three fillys to race in the Preakness Stakes in modern times.


by Trevor Whenham - 4/26/2017

When it comes to the Kentucky Derby, experience factors right up near the top of the list of things I consider when deciding to back a horse or not. It's right alongside breeding and the connections - with actual performance a step behind. Horses really struggle to overcome less-than-ideal amounts of experience when it comes to this race. There are two main Kentucky Derby experience factors that we have to focus on in particular:

Tepin, racehorse


by Trevor Whenham - 4/19/2017

The Curse of Apollo is going to be discussed a lot when it comes to this horse leading into the Kentucky Derby, so we might as well discuss that first. In 1882 Apollo became the eighth winner of the Kentucky Derby. He had not run as a two year old - all thoroughbreds have a Jan. 1 birthday regardless of when they were actually born. In the 134 years since, no horse has repeated the feat - every other winner of the Derby ran at least once at two. Patch ran for the first time on Jan. 15. That's not good.

Midnight Lute, a horse


by Trevor Whenham - 4/18/2017

I really hope that this preview is a wasted effort on my part. As it stands now all indications are that this horse is heading to the Kentucky Derby. On one hand, I get it - it's really, really tough to get into this race, so if a horse earns the points to get in then it's really tempting to take a shot. It's not like you can hold off and try again later. Some horses just don't have much of a chance, though, and this is definitely one of them. There are definitely things to like about him, but like too many of the Todd Pletcher horses this year he's raw, unpolished and just not ready for this challenge at this time. If I was making the decisions he would be saved for a much better spot than the Derby instead of risking so much in a race that just doesn't suit him.

Kentucky Derby Winner Mine That Bird.


by Trevor Whenham - 4/18/2017

What a strange trip to the Kentucky Derby this has been for Classic Empire. He was the dominant and impressive two-year-old champion, and unlike some horses that earn that honor he had the look of a true Kentucky Derby contender. It seemed like he was in cruise control. But then things got rocky. A terrible race. Injuries. Bad behavior. Spotty training. He went from incredible to very easy to doubt. In a salvation tale worthy of Disney, though, he finally returned to the track for the Arkansas Derby, and he did everything one could have hoped.

Jockey Frankie Dettori.


by Trevor Whenham - 4/18/2017

I feel a bit like a broken record as I write the previews for each potential Kentucky Derby horse. This is an obviously talented and well-bred colt from the Todd Pletcher barn that doesn't have enough depth of experience to make him easy to trust. Just like Patch. And Malagacy. Unlike those two, though, at least this colt doesn't have to worry about the curse of Apollo - no colt since Apollo in 1882 has won the Derby without running as a two year old, but this colt ran twice at two.

California Chrome and Jockey Victor Espinoza


by Trevor Whenham - 4/12/2017

The last major Kentucky Derby prep race of the 2017 season is upon us. This race has always been my favorite of the Derby preps, and since 2004 it has been on a very productive run. That year Smarty Jones won the race and then nearly won the Triple Crown. The 2005 winner, Afleet Alex, should have won the Triple Crown - he somehow finished a short length behind the underwhelming Giacomo in the Derby, won the Preakness, and then just crushed the field in the Belmont.

Stay Thirsty, trained by Todd Pletcher


by Trevor Whenham - 4/11/2017

The UAE Derby has, for the last several years, offered enough Kentucky Derby points that the winner can run in the Kentucky Derby. After Regal Ransom became the first in 2009 to make the trip, four of the last five winners have made the trip - Daddy Long Legs, Lines of Battle, Mubtaahij and Lani. None of those five horses has been a particular threat in the Derby. Sooner or later, though, a horse based in Dubai is going to do some damage in the Derby. It's one of the world's great races, and one of the huge-money owners over there will want roses for their mantle.

Kentucky Derby contender Eskendereya


by Trevor Whenham - 4/11/2017

Tapwrit is the Zack Greinke of this three-year-old class. When Greinke has his head on right and is into his game he's a freakish talent - the match of any pitcher on the mound. With all of his demons, though, you can never trust that he'll be present when needed, and as a result the guy has wasted a stunning amount of talent over the years. He'll frustrate you endlessly, but you can't give up on him because you know what he can do when he is in his zone.

Rachel Alexandra is one of only three fillys to race in the Preakness Stakes in modern times.


by Trevor Whenham - 4/11/2017

One of the very tough parts of handicapping the Kentucky Derby is that so often you have to make judgment calls about horses. J Boys Echo is a perfect example. He has run one really good race. Strong. And three other graded stakes that were less impressive. So, do you assume that the one race was him at his full potential and that he can replicate that in the Derby? Or do you just figure that he caught lightning in a bottle that one day and the other performances are closer to what we can expect.

Breeders' Cup Blind Luck


by Trevor Whenham - 4/10/2017

Irish War Cry has only three career graded stakes race starts, yet in that short time he has sent those, like me, who like him on a real rollercoaster ride. He convincingly beat a strong cast in the Holy Bull and it seemed like he was among the very best in the country. Then he was a disastrous seventh in a no-show performance in the Fountain of Youth and you had to wonder if he was really capable of performing at the highest levels after all. Then he came out and won the Wood Memorial with a very professional effort, and again it's fairly easy to believe in him.

Kentucky Derby Winner Animal Kingdom


by Trevor Whenham - 4/10/2017

If everything goes according to plan then Girvin will become the first Louisiana Derby winner since Grindstone in 1996 to win the Kentucky Derby. There have been some good horses since that have fallen short - Peace Rules was third in 2006, and Pants on Fire, Pyro and Circular Quay were all nice horses who didn't have their best day in Louisville. Is Girvin, the colt who has won three of four career starts, including the two biggest Derby prep races at Fair Grounds, the horse to restore the reputation of the race that brought us the great Preakness and Belmont winner Risen Star, among others?

Super Saver


by Trevor Whenham - 4/10/2017

I never entirely believe in giving a horse a mulligan for an underwhelming race, but with McCraken I come as close as I ever come. After his wins in the Kentucky Jockey Club in November and the Sam F. Davis in February I was comfortable with the argument that this colt was as good as any in the country this year. But then a minor injury leading into the Tampa Bay Derby caused him to miss that race, and suddenly he was forced to come into the Blue Grass Stakes off a two-month layoff. Long breaks like that are never really ideal, but especially not for a young, inexperienced horse just looking to learn the game and develop a base of race fitness.

Midshipman with jockey Garrett Gomez


by Trevor Whenham - 4/10/2017

I've hated a lot of things about this frustratingly dismal Kentucky Derby prep season, so when I say that I hated the Santa Anita Derby most of all, it really means something. It was just a total dog of a race - slow, ugly, and impossible to draw meaning from. It would be disappointing for any meaningful major Derby prep to be that lousy, never mind one that has produced five Triple Crown race wins in the last five years - two each from I'll Have Another and California Chrome, and one from Exaggerator.

Kentucky Derby Owners Box


by Trevor Whenham - 4/10/2017

It's easy to forget when looking at Kentucky Derby contenders just how young these horses are. Though they all have an official birthday on Jan. 1, many don't turn three until much later. Practical Joke, for example, was born on April 15. A three year old still isn't fully mature, either. In human terms, it's like we start paying attention to these horses when they are just grade schoolers, and the Derby comes up before they are even in college.

Kentucky Derby contender Eskendereya


by Trevor Whenham - 4/10/2017

Strange things happen with horses that finish fourth in the Sunland Derby. Keep in mind, of course, that the Sunland Derby is about as far outside of the mainstream as you can get with a Kentucky Derby prep. The elite horses don't go there in the first place, so finishing fourth in that race isn't exactly a crowning accomplishment. Yet in 2009 Mine That Bird was a dismal fourth in that race, and he came back to win the Kentucky Derby in truly shocking fashion.

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