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2025 Kansas City Royals Predictions with World Series Odds and Season Win Total Picks

by Ryan Cobbett - 2/20/2025

Kansas City Royals predictions Cole Ragans

Last season, the Kansas City Royals came out of nowhere, like the Detroit Tigers, and showed they were ahead of schedule and a highly competitive ball club. They went on to post a 86-76 record, which was good enough for second place in the AL Central. Despite the improvement, they actually finished six games worse than their expected record of 92-70. Nonetheless, the Royals season was an incredible improvement, as the team went on to clinch a wild card spot and then upset the Baltimore Orioles in the Wild-Card Game Series, sweeping the round. Unfortunately, their magic ended there, as they would go on to lose to the New York Yankees in the ALDS.

Bobby Witt Jr. had himself an incredible year, as he finished second in the AL MVP voting as he finished with a 9.4 WAR that was second to only Aaron Judge. He joined the 30/30 club after clubbing 32 homeruns and stealing 31 bases. Witt also led the team with 109 RBIs and 125 runs. Salvador Perez was a solid compliment to Witt, as the veteran catcher recorded a 2.6 WAR after hitting 27 homeruns and recording 104 RBIs. Vinnie Pasquantino finished behind Witt and Perez in homeruns (19), RBIs (97), and OPS (.760). Witt was joined by teammates Maikel Garcia and Dairon Blanco as the three Royals to record more than 30 stolen bases, as Garica led the team with 37 and Blanco had 31. As a team, the Royals ranked 11th in stolen bases, 13th in runs, 20th in homeruns, and 14th in OPS.

The Royals pitching staff fared much better and was a big reason for their success. They ranked eighth in ERA (3.76), 10th in walks allowed (472), and 13th in WHIP (1.24). Seth Lugo emerged as the leader for the pitching staff, as he led the way with a 5.3 WAR, a 3.00 ERA, and 22 quality starts. Cole Ragans also dominated last season as he recorded a 4.9 WAR and had a 3.14 ERA while picking up 21 quality starts across his 186.1 innings of work. Michael Wacha and Brady Singer also had impressive numbers, with both starters recording a WAR of 3.1 or better while also pitching more than 165 innings each and finishing the season with a sub-4.00 ERA.

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Kansas City Royals Key Additions/Losses

At the end of the season, the Royals lost Yuli Gurriel, Tommy Pham, Will Smith, Robbie Grossman, Garrett Hampson, and Paul DeJong to free agency. Soon after, they traded Singer to the Cincinnati Reds for second baseman Jonathan India and outfielder Joey Wiemer. Outside of the slew of veteran free agents and the Singer deal, the offseason was relatively quiet for Kansas City.

The club did bring in India and Wiemer, which should immediately boost the lineups potential. Kansas City also took fliers on utility man Cavan Biggio, relievers Junior Fernandez, Thomas Hatch, and Taylor Clarke, as well as starter Ross Stripling, and catcher Luke Maile, signing these players to minor league deals. The Royals also invested in a closer, bringing in Carlos Estevez on a two-year deal.

Kansas City Royals Prospect Outlook

The Royals have a fairly young roster with Witt and Ragans cemented as the franchise cornerstones. However, the farm system currently ranks 22nd in the MLB, as the Royals have just three prospects listed in MLB’s Top 100 Prospect Rankings. First baseman Jac Caglianone is the highest rated prospect in the Royals system and is the 22nd ranked prospect overall. Though a year or two away from contributing at the big-league level, Caglianone will be a formidable homerun hitter when he does finally make the Royals roster. Catcher Blake Mitchell is the second prospect in the Kansas City farm system, and he is the 48th rated prospect overall. Mitchell has plus power potential and an arm that rivals Yadier Molina’s. Backstop mate Carter Jensen rounds out the list of Royals prospects on the Top 100 list as he is the 86th ranked prospect.

Kansas City Royals X-Factors

Salvador Perez & Hunter Renfroe- Perez is set to begin the season at age 34, while Renfroe is right behind him at 33. These two veteran bats are an important presence in the Royals lineup, as these two have the best power potential behind Witt. Adding India and a healthy Pasquantino will also elevate the lineup around Witt. However, if Perez and India can provide some pop, despite their age, then this lineup could find themselves near the Top 10 in most major offensive categories.

Kyle Wright- Wright is a former 20-game winner when he was with the Atlanta Braves. Unfortunately, injuries have kept him off the mound for extended periods of time and limited his ability to produce. However, if Wright can return to form this season, he could be an incredible presence out of the Royals bullpen. Their bullpen could use another arm after ranking 20th in the league in ERA.

Kansas City Royals Expectations

The Royals are ahead of schedule in terms of their rebuild, and they have taken steps to improve their roster by acquiring India, signing Estevez, and bringing back Michael Lorenzen. Their depth might be questionable, as the bottom half of their lineup is less than impressive, and their bullpen, outside of Estevez and John Schreiber, are not proven. However, the rotation is impressive, and their lineup has enough pop to it that will keep the Royals in the playoff picture. They would benefit from adding a power bat to the lineup before the deadline. However, even if they didn’t, they should be pushing for a wild card spot once again this season. The AL Central is anyone’s game, with the Minnesota Twins, Detroit Tigers, Cleveland Guardians and the Royals all closely rated on paper. If guys like Lucas Erceg can emerge as a reliable option out of the bullpen or Pasquantino can live up to expectations, the Royals could win the division.

Kansas City Royals Notable Odds:

Win Total: 82.5

World Series Champions- +4000

Pennant Winners- +1500

Division Winners- +310

AL MVP- Bobby Witt Jr. +350

AL MVP- Vinnie Pasquantino +8000

AL Cy Young- Cole Ragans +1100

AL Rookie of the Year- Jac Caglianone +7000

2025 Kansas City Royals Predictions

Let’s start with the win total. The Royals won 86 games last season. And based on their production, their expected win total ended up being 92. This team did not get any worse. And with the addition of India, the Royals made some improvements offensively. The over on this win total is a strong pick for Kansas City, as they have the ceiling of winning around 95 games. At +310, they have great value as a division winner pick. And with the Yankees regressing, the AL Central can be anyone’s league, so the Royals as a dark horse pennant winner at +1500 is incredibly enticing and worth a flier. As for the player future, stay away from Caglianone as the AL Rookie of the Year winner as he may not even get a chance to put on the Royals uniform this season. Witt Jr. as AL MVP seems like a solid futures pick to invest in, as he is a Top 5 talent in the MLB and has the potential to be a consistent 30/30 guy, not to mention an above average glove. Witt will be in the MVP conversation, barring injuries, for the next five years or more.

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