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What is Closing Line Value (CLV) in Sports Betting? Why is Closing Line Value Important?

by August Young - 6/4/2024

sportsbook layout

In this article, we’re going to discuss Closing Line Value and its importance when betting on sports.

First, we need to understand WHAT closing line value is, before we can utilize it as a tool and incorporate it into our handicapping process.

In its most basic form, Closing Line Value (or “CLV”) essentially means the value you obtained on your initial wager, compared to where the market closed.

If that sounds complicated, we can break it down in more simple terms…

Sportsbooks have what is known as the ‘opening line’ and the ‘closing line’.

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Opening Line: This is the very first number that is set on a game. For example, if Circa Sports here in Las Vegas released initial odds for the Baltimore Ravens -2.5 (-110) at home vs. the Detroit Lions; then their opening line was -2.5.

Closing Line: This is the same line, but instead of the first number that is set – it is the final number that is available to bet moments before kick-off. For example, Circa Sports have odds for the Baltimore Ravens -4 (-110) at home mere moments prior to kick-off. The closing line is -4.

We’ll get back to both of those in a moment… but for now it’s important to understand that Closing Line Value is a tool that all professional sports bettors use to gauge whether they can expect to remain winning sports bettors in the future.

You want to always attempt to achieve good Closing Line Value.

Now, sportsbooks move their lines in the time between the Opening Line and the Closing Line for a variety of reasons, and this is known as Line Movement.

However, the reason for Line Movement is not what most think. And if you’re interested in the real reason for the movement in lines and odds, you can click the following link which will take you to another article that covers this topic in detail:

If you want to understand more about the topic of Why Lines Move, be sure to read the following link, which covers the topic in detail.

We highly recommend reading this as the reason for line movement, goes hand-in-hand with why Closing Line Value is so important and will give you a fuller understanding into this topic.

Now we have some of the basics out of the way; let’s dive deeper…

When it comes to Closing Line Value, you want to always ensure you are achieving Positive (+) Closing Line Value, and not Negative (-) Closing Line Value.

So, what is Positive, and Negative Closing Line Value?

Positive Closing Line Value (+CLV) (also known as Good Closing Line Value) This would be when you bet/lay -2.5 (-110) on the Baltimore Ravens on a Thursday, and by the time kick-off rolls around, the Ravens are now -4 (-110). This would be +CLV and is a very good wager that WILL win you money long-term.

Negative Closing Line Value (-CLV) (also known as Bad Closing Line Value) This would be when you bet/lay Baltimore -2.5 (-110) on Thursday, and by the time kick-off approaches, the Ravens are now a pickem’. This is NOT good Closing Line Value, and over the long haul will be a losing proposition and losing wager.

Positive Closing Line Value is the name of the game long-term!

Now, it’s also very important not to look at the line movement and simply pay attention to the overall point move.

For example, back to our example of betting a -2.5 that closes -4. You could look at that situation and say you achieved 1.5 points of Closing Line Value.

That is true… however; it’s vital to understand that not all points are created equal.

There is a reason that sportsbooks will tax you extra vig for buying on, and off the key number of 3.

It’s because that number is more important than others.

For example, if you bet -2.5 and by kick off the number is -3.5; that is a one-point move but is worth approximately 16% of Good Closing Line Value.

However, if you decided to lay -7.5, and the line closed –8.5; that is still a one-point move, but only worth approximately 5% of +CLV.

In both situations, we achieved one-point of CLV, but the -2.5 to -3.5 is more than 3x more valuable than the move from -7.5 to -8.5.

This is very important to understand as this can alter your plan of attack, and how successful you can expect your wager to be from a ROI standpoint.

Professional sports bettors will always keep track of where the line closed in relation to their wager, as this is a key component in if you have an edge and if you can expect to win long-term.

The reason for this is simple…

In the short-term, winning and losing is irrelevant.

You may have a winning record spanning 20 or 30 games and think you are a winning sports bettor. However, if you are not achieving +CLV, then you are almost certainly getting lucky opposed to making good bets.

The reason for this stem back to the other article we mentioned above which covers the exact reason sportsbooks move their lines and odds.

Sample size is everything when it comes to gauging your true success and edge, and it’s a lot bigger than most realize.

For example, results only start to show more signal than noise, north of 2,000 to 3,000 wagers.

This means you could be profitable over a 200 to 300 game sample size, which could easily be explained by pure luck and positive variance.

If you are getting Negative Closing Line Value on the majority of your wagers and still winning; 99% of the time, in the future, you will find that your bankroll and results trend towards the mean and you will lose money due to the built-in bookmakers vig.

On the flipside, if you are getting Positive Closing Line Value but losing over the short term (let’s assume 100 game sample size) that is more than OK!

The fact you are getting +CLV is a good sign that you know what you are doing and can expect to be a winning sports bettor if you continue to follow the same methods and process that is providing you with Positive Closing Line Value.

This theory has been proven time and time again by data scientists and professional sports bettors alike, all arriving at the same conclusion.

Positive Closing Line Value = Profit

Negative Closing Line Value = Loss

Trust us when we say that every single professional sports bettor in the world will tell you the importance of achieving Closing Line Value.

Now, there is a small caveat which is worth mentioning…

There are an elite, select few who can win long-term WITHOUT +CLV, but they are far and few between, and there are many reasons for that which we will perhaps save for another day for an advanced dive into this topic.

However, it’s safe to assume that everyone reading this article does not fall into this category.

To Summarize; Closing Line Value essentially means ensuring the number that you bet, is better than the number at the start time of the event.

If you manage to do this, you’re golden.

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