How to Bet Super Bowl Props

by Robert Ferringo - 2/6/2025

I don’t know that anyone can say with much certainty who is going to win Super Bowl LIX.

But whoever wins, it will be historic.

Philadelphia will take on Kansas City at 6:30 p.m., Sunday, Feb. 9 at Super Bowl LIX at the Superdome in New Orleans. The Chiefs are currently a tenuous 1.5-point favorite and the total for this game is set at 48.5.

For the Chiefs, the goal is nothing short of football history and immortality. Kansas City is attempting to become the first team to ever win three consecutive Super Bowls and the first team since the 1965-67 Green Bay Packers to earn three straight championships.

There have been eight other teams to win back-to-back Super Bowls, but none have been able to scale the mountain for a third straight time.

Philadelphia is aiming for more than just the role of spoiler. The Eagles are aiming for revenge for their Super Bowl loss to these same Chiefs just two years ago. Philadelphia lost 38-35 on a last-second field goal in LVII.

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All types of bettors, experienced and novice alike, are gearing up for The Big Game. Reports have suggested that Americans will wager nearly $2 billion on the Super Bowl through legal channels. The actual amount of money bet on this game will likely be more than 10 times that amount.

Betting on the Super Bowl used to be a pretty straightforward task: you would either bet on the side (the team you like to win or cover the spread) or the total (the combined number of points).

However, now betting on Super Sunday involves navigating a labyrinth of stats, odds and projections.

At one point, 90 percent of the Super Bowl handle would be dedicated to the side or total in the game. However, now proposition wagers, also called "prop bets”, have overtaken the traditional modes of Super Bowl betting as the most popular ways to wager.

These prop bets range from the mundane to the bizarre, with odds on everything from Taylor Swift’s total time on camera to length of the longest field goal.

These odd opportunities do offer value to intrepid bettors, though, and savvy gamblers are certain to find some hidden gems among the literally thousands of prop bets being offered on Sunday’s matchup.

Here are a few tips and tricks to help you bet on Super Bowl props:

Align Your Bets With Your Game Vision: If you think the game is going to be a high-scoring shootout then you should be looking at several offensive props going 'over.' Conversely, if you anticipate a low-scoring defensive battle, target 'under' bets for the star offensive players. Don’t get caught cross-betting, meaning you think the defenses will dominate but you get caught with a bunch of ‘over’ bets on player props.

Identify Your "Guy": Look beyond the star players and identify potential game-changers among both teams’ role players. Try to hone in on overlooked and undervalued players with the potential to exceed their low prop numbers.

Cluster Your Bets: Commit to your plays by clustering your bets around specific players or scenarios. If you don’t think that Saquon Barkley is going to have a big game then don’t just bet on him to go ‘over’ on his rushing yards. Consider also betting his receiving yards and touchdown props accordingly. Look, either you are going to be right or you are going to be wrong. If you are right, make it pay out.

Know Your History: In his four Super Bowl starts, how many times has Patrick Mahomes topped 290 yards passing? Which does Mahomes have more of in his Super Bowl career: touchdown passes or interceptions? Who was the last quarterback to throw for more than 300 yards in a Super Bowl? Before you place a bet in The Big Game you need to know a little background into what the norms are in Super Bowl performances. Granted, records are made to be broken. And past norms aren’t a sure indicator of future results. But you need to set a baseline for expected performance for players and teams before you can accurately gauge how the books have done setting their numbers. Study how players have been used during the season and you also need to know what Super Bowl history has taught us about the likelihood of things like 300-yard passers, 100-yard rushers and receivers with six or more catches. Those performances are much rarer than you’d think.

Discretion Is The Better Part Of Valor: With an overwhelming array of prop bets available, show some restraint and avoid impulse betting. I normally love in-game betting. But the Super Bowl is not the place you want to get caught betting moment-to-moment and living play-to-play. Come up with a plan, focus your efforts on the props where you see an edge, and once you’ve placed your bets step away from the window (in person or online).

Don’t Bet The Coin Toss: Oh yeah, if you bet the coin toss you are an idiot. Not only are you at a statistical disadvantage but you are also a degenerate and you give the rest of us a gamblers a bad name. Get it together.

Other than that - enjoy the game, bet responsibly, and don’t do anything I wouldn’t do.

Carpe diem. Good luck.

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Start:	February 6, 2025 @ 7:30 PM
Expert:	Nick Menken
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