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Moneyline vs Run Line Betting: How they Compare

by Docsports.com - 6/19/2023

Houston Astros Pitcher Justin Verlander

If you want to bet sides in baseball, you have two options - the moneyline or the runline . It is a very straightforward choice if you understand them , and it makes baseball betting approachable. For some reason, though, people often struggle to know the difference between the two and, more importantly, when using one or the other makes the most sense.

Fear not, though - if you are one of those who is confused, I am here today to show you the light. Here are the basics you need to know when comparing baseball moneyline betting and runline betting.

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How To Bet Moneyline In Baseball

If you are just a casual baseball bettor, you likely are just familiar with moneyline betting. You might see a moneyline that has the favorite at something like -140 and the underdog at +120. That means that if you were going to bet on the favorite, then you would have to bet $140 to win $100. And if you were going to bet on the underdog, then you would win $120 for every $100 you bet. Obviously, a favorite of -200 would be seen to be much more likely to win than -140, and an underdog of +200 would be much less likely to win than one that is +120.

What Is A Runline In Baseball Betting?

Runline betting is simply a moneyline bet to which a point spread is added. Unlike other sports, though, it is always a standard point spread - 1.5 runs. The favorite has to win by more than 1.5 runs in order to pay off, while the underdog can lose the game by a single run and the bet on them still pays off.

Runline betting can appeal to casual bettors, because heavy favorites can go off at a much more attractive price. But, as we will see, that's not typically the best use for this type of bet.

What’s The Difference Between Runline And Moneyline Betting?

When you are betting the moneyline in baseball, you are simply betting on which team will win. When you bet the runline, your wager factors in the 1.5 runs. If you bet a runline favorite, your team needs to win by two or more runs. If you bet an underdog on the runline, you win your wager if your team wins outright or if they lose by a single run.

It would be easier if there were a straightforward comparison between the two bets - a moneyline price of X means a runline bet of Y. That isn't the case, though, as things like the total for a game, the location, the weather, the pitchers, and so on can have an impact on how the two lines are set and how they relate to each other. You can, however, perform a simple trick that will give you at least an indication of where the value is in the bet. If the home team is favored, you can take the moneyline and move it by 90 cents. If the home favorite is at -140 on the moneyline, then you would expect it to be at about -1.5 +150 on the runline. If it is significantly different than that, then there is something going on worth checking out. And if it's a road favorite, then the shift is 55 cents.

Why the difference between home and road favorites? Well, a runline is easier for a team to cover on the road than at home. There are two big reasons for this. First, if a home team is leading in the ninth, then they get one fewer chance to hit than the road team - one fewer chance to score runs. And, if they are trailing going into the ninth and then start to score, the game ends as soon as they have a one-run lead. Even if there were no outs and the bases were loaded, and it was very likely that they were going to be able to pile on runs to cover the runline, it wouldn't matter. So, a home team has fewer chances to cover a runline, which makes them less attractive.

When you are betting on the runline, you have to be very aware of the total. The higher the total is in a game, the more points a team can give up and still win by two runs, so there is a bigger margin for error for the pitching staff. Of course, those totals are going to be factored into how the line is set, so you can't go overboard when thinking about these totals.

Runline Vs. Moneyline Betting In Baseball

As we said earlier, casual bettors will be drawn towards betting favorites on the runline because it can be a way to get a much more attractive price - especially when a team is very heavily favored on the moneyline. Betting a favorite at -1.5, +110 can be much more appealing than wagering on that same favorite on a -220 moneyline. 

Betting Underdogs On The Runline

That might not always be the best way to use the bet, though. It varies narrowly from year to year, but approximately 30 percent of all games are won by one run, and the percentage is slightly more than that when the home team wins. And the heaviest favorites are typically at home, which has the issues we have already discussed. So, it is very easy for the value to disappear entirely from a runline favorite. It is quite often a much less attractive bet in these cases than the moneyline despite the better price.

Where the runline can be more attractive, though, is in taking the underdog. This is counterintuitive, because often you will be giving up a price better than even money, and instead be giving up juice on a bet. But that extra run can make a big difference - especially when they are on the road or when you have respect for the starter.

A lot of people tend to have a strong opinion one way or the other about runline betting. Either they will think that it is a great way to go, or they will tell you that you would have to be an idiot to bet them. As with most things in sports betting, neither thing is typically true. The truth lies somewhere in between. The runline can be very useful in several different situations, and the more you explore them the more of those you will be able to find.

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