NHL Predictions: Regular Season Point Totals
by George Monroy - 10/3/2013
The new NHL season is finally underway, and it will be the first time in nearly two years that fans will get to experience a full-slate of 82 games. Not to take anything away from the Chicago Blackhawks, but lockout-shortened seasons—in any sport—tend to be viewed with a bit of an asterisk. Those condensed schedules can be brutal and derail any team’s championships hopes. But now that there is a full season of games to play, injuries and slow starts are no longer excuses. For bettors, there are plenty of ways to wager on hockey throughout the year, and futures or prop bets can be an excellent way to stay invested the entire season without having to bet on a daily basis.
One intriguing prop bet that gamblers might find interesting is the regular-season point totals. The wager is a simple “over/under” bet on the number of points a team will score throughout the season, and of course there is a line for every team in the league. So even if your hometown team is not expected to be very good this year, there is still a way to bet on them and make a profit at the same time. Here is a quick look at the regular-season point totals for the best, worst and middle-of-the-road teams. All odds come from Sportsbook.ag.
The best
Chicago Blackhawks: 111
Pittsburgh Penguins: 109.5
Boston Bruins: 104.5
Los Angeles Kings: 103.5
St Louis Blues: 103.5
New York Rangers: 101.5
Thoughts: The Blackhawks and Penguins are expected to be the juggernauts of the league, and both will probably surpass their expected point totals. Last season both teams were on pace to score more than 120 points—the Blackhawks were on pace for 131. And since most experts do not expect much of a drop off for either team this year, expect both to go over. The Los Angeles Kings, on the other hand, are on the third year of a solid run and might be playing tired and with the heavy burden of expectations on their collective shoulders. Last season the Kings were only on pace for 100 points and might fall short of 103.5 this season.
The middle
Anaheim Ducks: 96
Philadelphia Flyers: 94.5
Phoenix Coyotes: 90.5
Columbus Blue Jackets: 88.5
Dallas Stars: 87.5
Thoughts: The Ducks were on pace to score 112 point last season and are essentially returning the same team. And considering that a 16-point drop off seems a bit extreme, the Ducks are a solid bet to go over on 96 points. The Dallas Stars, on the other hand, were only on pace to score 82 points last season and are not expected to be much better this season, so taking the under on 87.5 seems like the right play to make. Dallas added a few new players to the roster, but chances are that they won’t be enough to make up the five-point difference from last season.
The worst
Nashville Predators: 83.5
Colorado Avalanche: 82
Buffalo Sabres: 77.5
Florida Panthers: 72.5
Calgary Flames: 66.5
Thoughts: The Calgary Flames are expected to be one of the worst teams in the league, and truth be told, they probably will be. The question is if they can score more than 66.5 points. Last season the team was on pace to score 82 points, but they are now in the middle of a rebuilding process. The Flames have a couple of young and talented players to be excited about, yet it is difficult to figure out how that will translate into wins. During last year’s lockout-shortened season, the lowest-scoring team in the league was on pace to score 61 points, and that is probably the type of season that Calgary is looking forward to—take the under.
Read more articles by George Monroy