Phoenix Mercury vs Chicago Sky Prediction, 10/17/2021 WNBA Pick, Tips and Odds

Game: Phoenix Mercury vs Chicago Sky

Date: Sunday, October 17, 2021

Location: Wintrust Arena in Chicago, IL

TV: ESPN

Odds/Point Spread: Phoenix (+4)

The Phoenix Mercury (19-13) go to Wintrust Arena on Sunday where they'll take on the Chicago Sky (16-16) in Game 4 of the WNBA Finals. The Sky lead the series 2-1. Chicago opens this game as 4 point favorites. The O/U has been set at 164.5.

The Mercury took a loss by a final of 86-50 in Game 3. Phoenix finished having earned a 25.8% FG percentage (16 out of 62) and buried 5 of 20 3-pointers. From the free throw line, the Mercury made 13 of 14 attempts for a rate of 92.9%. Regarding grabbing rebounds, they collected a total of 33 with 12 of them being on the offensive end. They also recorded 11 assists in the game while forcing the opposition into 12 turnovers and getting 8 steals. When talking about the defense, Phoenix allowed the other team to go 50.0% from the field on 30 out of 60 shooting. Chicago doled out 22 assists and had 13 steals for this contest. Furthermore, Chicago grabbed 34 boards (7 offensive, 27 defensive) and had 5 blocks. Chicago finished the game shooting 81.8% from the free throw line by burying 18 of 22 tries. They also knocked down 8 of their 18 shots from three-point range.

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Brittney Griner is one player who came through for this game. She notched 16 points on 7 of 17 shooting. She saw the court for 29:46 mins and collected 2 rebounds. Griner finished the game at 41.2% from the field and distributed 1 assist. Another player that came through in this matchup for the Mercury was Skylar Diggins-Smith. She grabbed 2 rebounds in 25:18 min played on the night. She ended up shooting 22.2% from the floor for the contest by connecting on 2-of-9 (7 points). When this game wrapped up, Diggins-Smith accounted for 3 assists.

Phoenix will play this game with a win-loss record of 19-13 so far this season. They average 82.1 points per contest (5th in the league) while hitting 45.0% from the floor. The Mercury are hitting 34.6% on shots from beyond the arc (241 of 697) and 79.8% from the free throw line. As a team, Phoenix is snagging 36.2 rebounds per game and has accumulated 629 dimes so far this year, which is 5th in basketball in terms of passing. They turn it over 12.8 times per game and as a squad they commit 16.3 fouls per contest. Defensively, the Mercury are forcing 10.1 turnovers per contest and they draw 18.2 fouls. The Mercury defensively are giving up an opponent FG percentage of 41.7% (322 of 583) and they relinquish 34.9 boards per game as a team. They are currently ranked 3rd in the league in allowing assists to the opposition with 546 conceded this year. They are surrendering 32.2% from beyond the arc while they are 4th in the WNBA in opponents PPG (79.5).

In their Game 3 win, the Sky were able to corral 27 defensive boards and 7 offensive rebounds for a total of 34 for this game. They turned the ball over 12 times, while getting 13 steals in this matchup. The Mercury committed 16 personal fouls in the matchup which got the Sky to the free throw line for 22 shots. They were able to convert 18 of the free throw attempts for a percentage of 81.8%. When discussing shooting from distance, Chicago knocked down 8 of their 18 tries (44.4%). When the final whistle blew, the Sky finished 30 out of 60 from the floor which had them shooting 50.0%. The Sky allowed the Mercury to make 16 of 62 attempts from the field which gave them a rate of 25.8% in the matchup. They finished 25.0% from distance by shooting 5 out of 20 and walked away from this one shooting 13 out of 14 from the charity stripe (92.9%). In the matter of cleaning up the glass, Chicago permitted Phoenix to collect 33 in total (12 offensive).

Courtney Vandersloot ended up being important for the Sky in the game. She buried 2 out of 3 for the matchup for a field goal rate of 66.7%, and had 3 rebounds. Vandersloot had 4 points in her 25:26 mins on the court and had 10 dimes for the game. An additional player who was a determining factor for Chicago was Kahleah Copper. She ended up finishing with no assists in 23:57 mins played, and she shot 6 out of 10 from the floor. Copper walked away from this one going 60.0% from the floor while also contributing 22 points and 1 rebound.

Chicago has a record of 16-16 so far this season. As an offense, the Sky are shooting 44.1% from the field, which is ranked 6th in the WNBA. Chicago has accounted for 2,664 pts for the campaign (83.3 per contest) and they pull in 34.9 boards per contest. Their rate of dishing out assists is at 21.8 times per game (1st in basketball) and they turn it over 13.8 times per game. The Sky are committing 19.0 fouls per game and they connect on 84.5% from the free throw line. The Sky are ranked 8th in the WNBA in points per game surrendered with 81.9. The Chicago defense concedes 35.2% on shots from 3-point land (210 of 597) and their opponents are making 78.1% of their free throw attempts. They have conceded 18.9 assists and 35.9 rebounds per game, which has them ranked 5th and 8th in the WNBA. They are able to force 14.8 turnovers per game and allow teams to shoot 43.3% from the field (7th in basketball).

Who will win tonight's WNBA game against the spread?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Phoenix (+4)

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