Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction, 10/3/2021 WNBA Pick, Tips and Odds

Game: Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury

Date: Sunday, October 3, 2021

Location: Desert Financial Arena in Tempe, AZ

TV: ABC

Odds/Point Spread: Las Vegas (-1.5)

The Phoenix Mercury (19-13) host the Las Vegas Aces (24-8) at Desert Financial Arena on Sunday in Game 3 of their series. The series is tied 1-1. Las Vegas opens this game as 1.5 point favorites. The over/under has been set at 169.5.

The Aces ended up losing by a score of 117-91 in Game 2. Las Vegas ended having earned a 52.2% field goal percentage (36 of 69) and buried 4 out of their 16 three-point shots. At the charity stripe, the Aces converted 15 of 22 shots for a rate of 68.2%. In regard to pulling down rebounds, they collected a total of 23 with 3 of them being of the offensive sort. They also doled out 21 dimes for the matchup as well as forcing the other team into 14 turnovers and having 10 steals. In reference to defense, Las Vegas allowed 60.6% from the field on 40 out of 66 shooting. Phoenix recorded 5 dimes and had 3 steals in this game. Additionally, Phoenix grabbed 36 rebounds (5 offensive, 31 defensive) and earned 5 blocked shots. Phoenix walked away from this one shooting 95.8% at the charity stripe by making 23 of their 24 shots. They buried 14 out of their 26 shots from long range.

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Chelsea Gray is one player who came through for this contest. She recorded 10 points on 4 out of 9 shooting. She played 29:17 minutes played and also totaled 1 rebound. Gray finished shooting 44.4% from the floor and also totaled 7 dimes. Someone else that was a major contributor in this game for the Aces was A'ja Wilson. She snagged 9 rebounds in 27:18 minutes on the hardwood. She ended up shooting 50.0% from the floor in this matchup by shooting 4-of-8 (12 points). When all was said and done, Wilson accounted for 7 assists.

Las Vegas enters this one with a win-loss mark of 24-8 on the year. They average 89.3 pts per contest (1st in the league) while connecting on 47.2% from the floor. The Aces are shooting 37.5% on three-point attempts (162 of 432) and 81.9% from the free throw line. As a team, Las Vegas is pulling down 38.6 boards per game and has accounted for 667 dimes this season, which has them ranked 3rd in the WNBA in terms of passing the ball. They are turning it over 11.6 times per game and as a unit are committing 14.2 fouls on a nightly basis. On the defensive end, the Aces are able to force 11.4 turnovers on a nightly basis and they draw 18.8 personal fouls. They are conceding 30.6% on 3-point shots while they are 5th in the WNBA in PPG allowed (80.2). The Aces defensively are giving up an opponent FG percentage of 41.5% (365 of 603) and they surrender 34.9 boards per game as a basketball team. They currently rank 7th in basketball in giving up assists to their opponents with 622 surrendered so far this year.

In their Game 2 win, the Mercury were able to collect 31 defensive boards and 5 offensive rebounds totaling 36 in this game. They also gave up possession of the ball 14 times, while recording 3 steals for this game. The Aces had 16 fouls in this matchup which got the Mercury to the free throw line for a total of 24 tries. They were able to knock down 23 of the free throw tries for a rate of 95.8%. With regard to shots from distance, Phoenix converted 14 of their 26 attempts (53.8%). Overall, the Mercury ended up shooting 40 out of 66 from the field which gave them a percentage of 60.6%. The Mercury permitted the Aces to knock down 36 of their 69 attempts from the field which left them shooting 52.2% in this matchup. They finished 25.0% from beyond the arc by hitting 4 of 16 and finished the game at 15 out of 22 from the free throw line (68.2%). In the matter of cleaning up the glass, Phoenix allowed Las Vegas to grab 23 in total (3 on the offensive side).

Brianna Turner ended up being a major contributor for the Mercury for this contest. She buried 2 out of 3 in the matchup giving her a field goal percentage of 66.7%, and added 8 rebounds. Turner recorded 4 points in her 28:43 mins on the court and had 3 dimes in the game. Another player that was important for Phoenix was Skylar Diggins-Smith. She wrapped the game up with 5 dimes in 27:52 mins on the court, and she shot 6 of 12 from the floor. Diggins-Smith finished going 50.0% from the field as well as totaling 17 points and 2 rebounds.

Phoenix has a win-loss record of 19-13 for the season. When it comes to executing on offense, the Mercury are connecting on 45.0% from the field, which is ranked 4th in the WNBA. Phoenix has tallied 2,626 pts on the year (82.1 per contest) and they pull down 36.2 boards per contest. They are earning an assist 19.7 times per contest (5th in the WNBA) and they are turning it over 12.8 times per game. The Mercury are committing 16.3 fouls per contest while shooting 79.8% from the free throw line. The Mercury on defense are ranked 4th in basketball in points per game surrendered with 79.5. They relinquish 17.1 dimes and 34.9 rebounds per game, which is ranked 3rd and 5th in basketball. The Phoenix defense concedes 32.2% on shots from 3-point land (227 of 705) and their opponents are making 81.3% of their foul shots. They have forced 10.1 turnovers per game and have allowed teams to shoot 41.7% from the floor (3rd in basketball).

Who will win tonight's WNBA game against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Phoenix (+1.5)

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