Santiago Ponzinibbio vs Daniel Rodriguez Pick, 05/03/2025 Predictions UFC Des Moines Odds
Santiago Ponzinibbio vs Daniel Rodriguez
UFC Des Moines
Wells Fargo Arena in Des Moines, IA
Saturday, May 3, 2025
Santiago Ponzinibbio will take on Daniel Rodriguez at UFC Des Moines on Saturday, May 3, 2025. The line has Ponzinibbio priced at -120 while Rodriguez is coming in at +100.
Santiago "Argentine Dagger" Ponzinibbio comes into this fight holding a mark of 31-8-0. The 38-year-old weighs in at 170 lbs and comes in at 6'0". The orthodox fighter has a reach of 73". Daniel "D-Rod" Rodriguez comes in at 6'1" and steps on the scale at 170 lbs. The southpaw fighter steps into the cage holding a record of 18-5-0. The 38-year-old extends his reach 74". In terms of significant strikes, Santiago Ponzinibbio connects on 4.80 per minute while Daniel Rodriguez lands 7.50 significant strikes per minute. Ponzinibbio is landing 41% of the significant strikes he tries and Rodriguez is landing 49%. Regarding defending in the Octagon, "Argentine Dagger" takes 4.61 significant strikes per minute and "D-Rod" absorbs 5.47. Ponzinibbio also stops 61% of the significant strikes that are aimed in his direction and Rodriguez is able to deflect 58% of the strikes thrown his way.
| UFC Des Moines | Santiago Ponzinibbio | Daniel Rodriguez |
|---|---|---|
| Opening Odds | -120 | +100 |
| Record | 31-8-0 | 18-5-0 |
| Average Fight Time | 11:20 | 11:38 |
| Height | 6'0" | 6'1" |
| Weight | 170 lbs | 170 lbs |
| Reach | 73" | 74" |
| Strikes Landed Per Minute | 4.80 | 7.50 |
| Striking Accuracy | 41% | 49% |
Regarding grappling, Santiago Ponzinibbio is not as effective of a wrestler as he takes his opponents to the canvas 0.56 times per 15 minutes. Ponzinibbio is scoring a takedown on 32% of the times he tries and is stopping 71% of all takedown tries against him. Rodriguez is scoring a takedown on 54% of his takedown attempts and is stuffing 57% of the tries against him. When it comes to going for the submission, Ponzinibbio is the more skilled of the two fighters by attempting 0.5 subs per 3 rounds while Rodriguez attempts 0.1 subs per 15 min.
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In his last bout, Santiago Ponzinibbio squared up with Carlston Harris and took home the victory by way of a punch to the head in round 3. Harris landed 78 of 211 total strikes attempted in that contest. Ponzinibbio walked away from this fight having landed 76 of 175 total strikes. In regard to significant strikes, Harris landed 73 of 196, which gave him a rate of 37%. He ended up landing 40 of 142 significant strikes aimed at the head. On the other side of the Octagon, Ponzinibbio ended up landing 43% of his significant strikes by landing 76 of 175. Out of all the significant strikes thrown, he landed 57 of 151 aimed at the head. 100% of the significant strikes landed by Harris and 94% of them connected on by Ponzinibbio were done at a distance.
In the last bout for Daniel Rodriguez, he went up against Alex Morono and wound up getting the win by split decision in round 3. Morono ended up landing 100% of the significant strikes he took from distance while Rodriguez ended up landing 95% of his significant strikes at distance. Rodriguez landed 47% of the significant strikes he attempted by landing 123 of 257. He ended up landing 44 of 153 significant strikes directed at the head. Morono ended up connecting on 74 of 257 significant strikes in that contest. Of all the significant strikes, he ended up landing 58 of 228 directed at the head. Regarding total strikes attempted in that contest, Morono landed 91 of 276 and Rodriguez ended up landing 126 of 260 of the strikes he threw in total.
Other fights to watch
One more match to look forward to is when Montel Jackson goes up against Daniel Marcos. Jackson has a mark of 14-2-0. The 33-year-old records a weight of 135 lbs and stands in at 5'10". The southpaw fighter stretches 75". Marcos stands 5'7" and weighs in at 135 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a win to his career total of 17-0-0 (1 NC). The 32-year-old has a reach of 69". When it comes to grappling, Montel Jackson takes his opponents to the mat 3.41 times per 3 rds while Daniel Marcos gets a takedown 0.59 times per 3 rounds. When it comes to striking, Jackson connects for an average of 3.39 strikes/minute and is connecting on 53% out of all the strikes he attempts. On the other side of the cage we have Daniel Marcos, who tags the opposition on 53% of the strikes he has attempted and is landing 5.90 per min.
If you're going to be watching the fights, don't miss when Serhiy Sidey is set to fight Cameron Smotherman. Smotherman comes into this fight with a mark of 12-4-0. The 27-year-old is weighing in at 135 lbs and stands in at 5'9". The orthodox fighter stretches 69". Sidey stands 5'11" and weighs in at 135 lbs. The switch fighter walks into the cage holding a record of 11-2-0. The 28-year-old has a wingspan of 72". Regarding takedowns, Cameron Smotherman is thwarting 50% of the takedowns his opponents go for and is taking his opponents to the mat on 15% of the times he tries. Sidey is finishing his takedown tries on 15% of the tries he takes and thwarts 20% of the takedowns his opponents try. With reference to striking, Smotherman is absorbing 4.56 strikes/minute while he is connecting on 6.25 per minute. Sidey, in contrast, is absorbing 4.44 strikes/minute and deals 4.87 per min.
Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?
Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Santiago Ponzinibbio (-120)
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