Rinya Nakamura vs Muin Gafurov Pick, 01/18/2025 Predictions UFC 311 Odds

by Josh Schonwald - 1/15/2025

Rinya Nakamura vs Muin Gafurov

UFC 311

Intuit Dome in Inglewood, CA

Saturday, January 18, 2025

Rinya Nakamura will enter the Octagon with Muin Gafurov at UFC 311 on Saturday, January 18, 2025. The line has Nakamura priced at -500 while Gafurov is coming in at +380.

Rinya "Hybred" Nakamura holds a mark of 9-0-0. The 29-year-old weighs 135 lbs and measures 5'7". The southpaw fighter reaches 68". Muin "Tajik" Gafurov comes in at 5'7" and weighs in at 135 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a victory to his record of 19-6-0. The 28-year-old has a reach of 68". In the category of significant strikes, Rinya Nakamura connects on 3.53 per min and Muin Gafurov is landing 3.03 significant strikes per minute. Nakamura lands 54% of the significant strikes he attempts while Gafurov lands 47%. Regarding defending in the cage, "Hybred" allows 1.38 significant strikes per minute while "Tajik" allows 2.25. Nakamura also prevents 67% of the significant strikes his opponents throw his way while Gafurov is able to curb 50% of the shots thrown his way.

ufc picks Rinya Nakamura ufc predictions best bet odds

UFC 311	Rinya Nakamura	Muin Gafurov
Opening Odds	-500	+380
Record	9-0-0	19-6-0
Average Fight Time	7:16	11:33
Height	5'7"	5'7"
Weight	135 lbs	135 lbs
Reach	68"	68"
Strikes Landed Per Minute	3.53	3.03
Striking Accuracy	54%	47%

In terms of wrestling, Rinya Nakamura is the more efficient wrestler as he takes his opponents down 3.72 times per 15 min. Nakamura is taking his opponents to the canvas on 90% of his tries and is defending 85% of takedowns his opponents have attempted. Gafurov is getting his opponent to the mat on 27% of the takedowns he attempts and stopping 68% of all takedowns attempted by his opposition. In terms of submissions, Nakamura is the more experienced of the two fighters by trying 1.6 subs per 15 min while Gafurov looks to get 0.7 subs per 15 minutes.

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In his previous fight, Rinya Nakamura squared up with Carlos Vera and wound up taking home the win via unanimous decision in round 3. Vera landed 55 of 79 total strikes attempted in that contest. Nakamura walked away from this fight having landed 73 of 114 total strikes. In the significant strikes category, Vera ended up landing 12 of 25, which gave him a rate of 48%. He finished the fight landing 7 of 19 significant strikes directed at the head. On the other side of the Octagon, Nakamura landed 54% of his significant strikes by sticking 38 of 70. In terms of accuracy for the significant strikes, he landed 30 of 61 to the head. 50% of the significant strikes landed by Vera and 18% of them connected on by Nakamura were done at a distance.

In the last bout for Muin Gafurov, he battled Kyung Ho Kang and wound up taking home the win by way of unanimous decision in round 3. Kang ended up connecting on 91% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance and Gafurov ended up connecting on 53% of his significant strikes at distance. Gafurov connected on 66% of his significant strikes attempted by connecting on 47 of 71. He ended up connecting on 27 of 45 significant strikes to the head. Kang ended up landing 12 of 35 significant strikes in that fight. Of those significant strikes, he landed 8 of 28 to the head. When discussing total strikes that he let go in that contest, Kang ended up connecting on 119 of 152 and Gafurov ended up landing 110 of 144 of the strikes he threw in total.

Other fights on the card to watch

Another fight to keep an eye on is when Ricky Turcios goes up against Benardo Sopaj. Turcios will be looking to add a victory to his record of 13-4-0. The 31-year-old is fighting at 135 lbs and comes in at 5'9". The orthodox fighter has a wingspan of 71". Sopaj measures 5'6" and is fighting at 135 lbs. The orthodox fighter holds a record of 11-3-0. The 24-year-old reaches 66". In the grappling category, Ricky Turcios gets a takedown 0.89 times per 15 minutes and Benardo Sopaj scores a takedown 3.06 times per 3 rounds. In terms of striking, Turcios is connecting on 4.63 strikes/minute and landing 37% of the strikes that he throws. On the other side of the cage you've got Benardo Sopaj, who lands 52% of the strikes that he throws and lands an average of 3.06 per min.

If you're into fun fights, you're going to want to see when Clayton Carpenter is set to fight Tagir Ulanbekov. Ulanbekov will be looking to add a win to his career total of 15-2-0. The 33-year-old steps on the scale at 125 lbs and comes in at 5'7". The southpaw fighter reaches 70". Carpenter comes in at 5'6" and is fighting at 125 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the Octagon holding a mark of 8-0-0. The 28-year-old has a reach of 66". In the category of takedowns, Tagir Ulanbekov is able to stop 61% of the takedowns his opponents go for and is getting his opponent to the mat on 46% of his tries. Carpenter is taking his opponents to the mat on 55% of his tries and is able to deflect 15% of takedowns his opponents have tried. With reference to striking, Ulanbekov takes 3.30 strikes per minute while he lands 3.22 strikes/min. Carpenter, on the contrary, absorbs 2.71 strikes per min and lands 4.56 per minute.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Rinya Nakamura (-500)

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Rinya Nakamura vs Muin Gafurov Pick, 01/18/2025 Predictions UFC 311 Odds

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