Raul Rosas Jr. vs Vince Morales Pick, 03/29/2025 Predictions UFC Mexico City Odds

by Guy Bruhn - 3/26/2025

Raul Rosas Jr. vs Vince Morales

UFC Mexico City

Arena CDMX in Mexico City

Saturday, March 29, 2025

Raul Rosas Jr. will face off against Vince Morales at UFC Mexico City on Saturday, March 29, 2025. The opening moneyline has Jr. at -395 while Morales is coming in at +310.

Raul "El Nino Problema" Rosas Jr. will be looking to add a win to his career total of 10-1-0. The 20-year-old will fight at 135 lbs and measures in at 5'9". The switch fighter has a wingspan of 67". Vince "Vandetta" Morales comes in at 5'7" and steps on the scale at 135 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the cage holding a record of 16-9-0. The 34-year-old has a reach of 70". Concerning significant strikes, Raul Rosas Jr. is landing 1.55 per minute and Vince Morales is connecting on 3.84 significant strikes per min. Rosas Jr. lands 43% of the significant strikes he attempts and Morales is connecting on 37%. In terms of defending in the Octagon, "El Nino Problema" allows 1.43 significant strikes per min while "Vandetta" allows 4.29. Rosas Jr. also stops 51% of the significant strikes his opponents throw his way while Morales prevents 53% of the shots thrown in his direction.

ufc picks Raul Rosas Jr. ufc predictions best bet odds

UFC Mexico City	Raul Rosas Jr.	Vince Morales
Opening Odds	-395	+310
Record	10-1-0	16-9-0
Average Fight Time	9:20	12:35
Height	5'9"	5'7"
Weight	135 lbs	135 lbs
Reach	67"	70"
Strikes Landed Per Minute	1.55	3.84
Striking Accuracy	43%	37%

In the grappling category, Raul Rosas Jr. is the better grappler as he is averaging a takedown 4.02 times per 15 minutes. Rosas Jr. is getting his opponent to the mat on 39% of his attempts and thwarting 15% of the takedowns his opponents attempt. Morales is getting his opponent to the mat on 35% of the takedowns he attempts and is stopping 60% of all takedowns attempted by his opposition. When it comes to sub attempts, Rosas Jr. is the more skilled technician by trying 1.3 submissions per 15 minutes while Morales goes for 0.3 submissions per 3 rds.

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In his last bout, Raul Rosas Jr. squared up with Aoriqileng and ended up getting the victory by way of unanimous decision in round 3. Aoriqileng landed 80 of 118 total strikes that he let go in that fight. Jr. walked away from this fight having landed 98 of 158 total strikes. In terms of significant strikes, Aoriqileng landed 22 of 54, which means his percentage was 40%. He finished the fight landing 12 of 43 significant strikes directed at the head. Statistically, Jr. ended up landing 43% of his significant strikes by landing 41 of 94. Out of those significant strikes, he landed 21 of 59 aimed at the head. 100% of the significant strikes connected on by Aoriqileng and 65% of them connected on by Jr. were tallied at distance.

In the last Octagon appearance for Vince Morales, he squared up with Elijah Smith and walked away in defeat via unanimous decision in round 3. Smith landed 92% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance and Morales landed 90% of the significant strikes he attempted from distance. Morales landed 46% of his significant strikes attempted by landing 40 of 86. He connected on 30 of 74 significant strikes to the head. Smith ended up connecting on 40 of 97 significant strikes in that contest. Out of all the significant strikes thrown, he ended up landing 29 of 81 aimed at the head. When discussing total strikes thrown in that contest, Smith connected on 52 of 110 while Morales landed 42 of 90 of all the strikes he threw.

Other bouts to watch out for

Another fight to keep an eye on is when David Martinez squares up with Saimon Oliveira. Martinez will be looking to add a victory to his career total of 11-1-0. The 26-year-old weighs in at 135 lbs and measures in at 5'6". The orthodox fighter has a reach of 66". Oliveira measures 5'4" and tips the scales at 135 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the cage holding a mark of 18-5-0. The 33-year-old reaches 72". Regarding grappling, David Martinez is able to score a takedown 0.80 times per 15 min and Saimon Oliveira gets a takedown 1.21 times per 3 rds. Regarding striking, Martinez lands an average of 5.27 strikes per min and is connecting on 49% of the strikes that he throws. The other fighter in this bout is Saimon Oliveira, who connects on 41% of the strikes he has thrown and connects on 2.82 per min.

If you're going to be watching the fights, don't miss when Kevin Borjas is set to go up against Ronaldo Rodriguez. Rodriguez has a mark of 17-2-0. The 25-year-old steps on the scale at 125 lbs and measures 5'6". The orthodox fighter stretches 65". Borjas measures 5'5" and will fight at 125 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the Octagon with a mark of 9-3-0. The 27-year-old extends his reach 68". Regarding takedowns, Ronaldo Rodriguez is able to deflect 64% of his opponents' takedown tries and is scoring a takedown on 50% of his attempts. Borjas is finishing his takedowns on 15% of his tries and is able to thwart 61% of all takedown attempts. With regard to striking, Rodriguez is absorbing 3.15 strikes per min and he is dishing out 2.13 per min. Borjas, on the other side, is absorbing 6.70 strikes/min and deals 4.92 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Vince Morales (+310)

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Raul Rosas Jr. vs Vince Morales Pick, 03/29/2025 Predictions UFC Mexico City Odds

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