Rafael Estevam vs Jesus Aguilar Pick, 02/15/2025 Predictions UFC Vegas 102 Odds

Rafael Estevam vs Jesus Aguilar

UFC Vegas 102

UFC Apex in Las Vegas

Saturday, February 15, 2025

Rafael Estevam will battle Jesus Aguilar at UFC Vegas 102 on Saturday, February 15, 2025. The moneyline has Estevam coming in at -360 while Aguilar is at +285.

Rafael "Macapa" Estevam comes into this fight with a record of 12-0-0. The 28-year-old records a weight of 125 lbs and measures 5'8". The orthodox fighter stretches 69". Jesus Aguilar measures in at 5'4" and weighs in at 125 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a victory to his career record of 11-2-0. The 28-year-old has a reach of 62". Concerning significant strikes, Rafael Estevam connects on 2.94 per min and Jesus Aguilar is landing 1.46 significant strikes per min. Estevam is landing 64% of the significant strikes he throws while Aguilar is landing 51%. Concerning the fighter's defense, "Macapa" absorbs 3.35 significant strikes per min and Aguilar absorbs 1.26. Estevam also prevents 34% of the significant strikes that are directed at him while Aguilar is able to thwart 58% of the strikes thrown his way.

In the category of takedowns, Rafael Estevam is the more productive grappler as he takes his opponents to the canvas 3.35 times per 15 minutes. Estevam is taking his opponents to the canvas on 19% of his attempts and defending 15% of all takedowns attempted by his opposition. Aguilar is finishing his takedowns on 33% of the takedowns he tries and is stopping 36% of all takedowns attempted on him. Regarding going for the sub, Estevam is less apt at going for the finish by trying 0.7 finishes per 3 rounds while Aguilar attempts 1.8 finishes per 15 min.

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In his last appearance in the Octagon, Rafael Estevam fought Charles Johnson and wound up getting the win by unanimous decision in round 3. Johnson landed 116 of 161 of the strikes he let go in total for this contest. Estevam finished this fight landing 35 of 77 total strikes. In the category of significant strikes, Johnson landed 72 of 109 , which means his percentage was 66%. He finished the fight landing 38 of 69 significant strikes directed at the head. Statistically, Estevam landed 41% of his significant strikes by connecting on 18 of 43 . In terms of accuracy for the significant strikes, he landed 10 of 28 aimed at the head. 73% of the significant strikes connected on by Johnson and 61% of them landed by Estevam were thrown at a distance.

In the last fight for Jesus Aguilar, he battled Stewart Nicoll and wound up taking home the victory via guillotine choke in round 1. Nicoll connected on 25% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance while Aguilar landed 100% of the significant strikes he attempted from distance. Aguilar ended up connecting on 60% of the significant strikes he attempted by connecting on 3 of 5 . He ended up landing 3 of 5 significant strikes to the head. Nicoll landed 8 of 17 significant strikes in that fight. In regard to the placement of these significant strikes, he connected on 4 of 12 to the head. In regard to total strikes thrown in that contest, Nicoll connected on 15 of 29 while Aguilar was 3 of 5 of all the strikes he threw.

Other bouts to watch out for

Another fight that you're going to want to watch is when Gabriel Bonfim faces off against Khaos Williams. Bonfim looks to add a victory to his career record of 16-1-0. The 27-year-old is fighting at 170 lbs and stands in at 6'1". The orthodox fighter reaches 72". Williams measures 6'0" and is fighting at 170 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a win to his total of 15-3-0. The 30-year-old extends his reach 77". Regarding grappling, Gabriel Bonfim takes his opponents to the mat 2.92 times per 15 min while Khaos Williams scores a takedown 0.80 times per 15 min. When it comes to striking, Bonfim connects for an average of 5.78 strikes/minute and connects on 42% of the strikes that he throws. On the other side of the cage you've got Khaos Williams, who lands 39% of the strikes he has thrown and connects for an average of 5.81 per min.

One more can't miss bout is when Elijah Smith is set to take on Vince Morales. Morales steps into the cage with a mark of 16-8-0. The 34-year-old is fighting at 135 lbs and comes in at 5'7". The orthodox fighter has a wingspan of 70". Smith comes in at 5'9" and weighs 135 lbs. The orthodox fighter comes into this fight with a record of 7-1-0. The 22-year-old has a reach of 71". In the category of takedowns, Vince Morales is able to curb 65% of the takedowns fighters have gone for and is finishing his takedown attempts on 30% of his attempts. Smith is finishing his takedown tries on 45% of his attempts and prevents 85% of all takedown tries against him. With regard to striking, Morales absorbs 4.48 strikes/minute and he is dealing 3.98 strikes per minute. Smith, moreover, is absorbing 5.07 strikes per min and dishes out 5.00 per minute.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Rafael Estevam (-360)

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