Rafa Garcia vs Vinc Pichel Pick, 03/29/2025 Predictions UFC Mexico City Odds

by Guy Bruhn - 3/26/2025

Rafa Garcia vs Vinc Pichel

UFC Mexico City

Arena CDMX in Mexico City

Saturday, March 29, 2025

Rafa Garcia will face off against Vinc Pichel at UFC Mexico City on Saturday, March 29, 2025. The moneyline has Garcia coming in at -485 while Pichel is coming in at +370.

Rafa "Gifted" Garcia looks to add a win to his record of 16-4-0. The 30-year-old tips the scales at 155 lbs and measures 5'7". The orthodox fighter extends his reach 70". Vinc "From Hell" Pichel measures in at 5'10" and weighs in at 155 lbs. The orthodox fighter will be looking to add a win to his record of 14-4-0. The 42-year-old extends his reach 72". With respect to significant strikes, Rafa Garcia is landing 3.97 per minute while Vinc Pichel connects on 3.62 significant strikes per minute. Garcia connects on 42% of the significant strikes he tries and Pichel connects on 46%. Concerning their defense in the Octagon, "Gifted" absorbs 4.36 significant strikes per minute and "From Hell" allows 3.05. Garcia also deflects 61% of the significant strikes that are aimed in his direction and Pichel stops 55% of the shots thrown.

ufc picks Rafa Garcia ufc predictions best bet odds

UFC Mexico City	Rafa Garcia	Vinc Pichel
Opening Odds	-485	+370
Record	16-4-0	14-4-0
Average Fight Time	13:19	12:16
Height	5'7"	5'10"
Weight	155 lbs	155 lbs
Reach	70"	72"
Strikes Landed Per Minute	3.97	3.62
Striking Accuracy	42%	46%

Regarding wrestling, Rafa Garcia is the more skilled wrestler as he takes his opponents to the mat 3.38 times per 3 rds. Garcia is finishing his takedown attempts on 44% of his attempts and is defending 75% of all takedowns attempted on him. Pichel is taking his opponents down on 54% of the takedowns he attempts and thwarting 25% of all takedowns attempted on him. When it comes to going for the submission, Garcia is the more apt fighter by trying 0.3 finishes per 3 rds while Pichel goes for 0.2 finishes per 15 min.

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In his last appearance in the Octagon, Rafa Garcia went up against Grant Dawson and took a loss on the night via a punch to the head in round 2. Dawson ended up landing 80 of 144 total strikes that he let go in that fight. Garcia walked away from this fight having landed 29 of 38 total strikes. In the significant strikes category, Dawson ended up landing 44 of 90, which gave him a percentage of 48%. He landed 38 of 76 significant strikes aimed at the head. In terms of stats for the opponent, Garcia ended up landing 41% of his significant strikes by landing 5 of 12. Of all the significant strikes, he connected on 4 of 8 pointed at the head. 11% of the significant strikes landed by Dawson and 80% of them connected on by Garcia were tallied at distance.

In the last bout for Vinc Pichel, he squared up with Ismael Bonfim and wound up losing the fight via unanimous decision in round 3. Bonfim ended up connecting on 96% of the significant strikes he took from distance and Pichel connected on 98% of the significant strikes he attempted from distance. Pichel landed 42% of his significant strikes attempted by landing 61 of 142. He connected on 26 of 93 significant strikes directed at the head. Bonfim landed 111 of 216 significant strikes in that contest. Of all the significant strikes, he landed 80 of 176 to the head. Discussing total strikes that he threw in that fight, Bonfim ended up connecting on 112 of 217 and Pichel ended up landing 64 of 147 of all the strikes he attempted.

Other bouts on the card to watch out for

Another fight to keep an eye on is when Jamall Emmers faces off against Gabriel Miranda. Emmers looks to add a win to his career total of 20-8-0. The 35-year-old tips the scales at 145 lbs and stands in at 5'10". The orthodox fighter has a wingspan of 74". Miranda comes in at 5'11" and weighs in at 145 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the Octagon holding a record of 17-7-0. The 35-year-old stretches 71". In the grappling category, Jamall Emmers is averaging a takedown 1.83 times per 3 rounds and Gabriel Miranda is averaging a takedown 3.85 times per 3 rds. When it comes to striking, Emmers is landing 5.30 strikes/min and is landing 48% out of all the strikes he attempts. On the other side we have Gabriel Miranda, who tags the opposition on 40% of the strikes that he throws and connects on 2.82 per min.

If you're into fun fights, you're going to want to see when Austin Hubbard is set to encounter MarQuel Mederos. Mederos walks into the Octagon holding a mark of 9-1-0. The 28-year-old will fight at 155 lbs and measures 5'10". The orthodox fighter has an arm span of 69". Hubbard measures in at 5'10" and is weighing in at 155 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a victory to his record of 17-8-0. The 33-year-old has a reach of 71". In terms of wrestling, MarQuel Mederos defends against 90% of the takedowns fighters have attempted and is getting his opponent to the mat on 15% of his attempts. Hubbard is taking his opponents down on 34% of the tries he takes and prevents 67% of the takedowns his opponents try. With regard to striking, Mederos absorbs 3.29 strikes per minute while he is dishing out 4.39 strikes/min. Hubbard, on the other hand, is absorbing 3.92 strikes/min and is landing 4.12 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Vinc Pichel (+370)

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Rafa Garcia vs Vinc Pichel Pick, 03/29/2025 Predictions UFC Mexico City Odds

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