Kelvin Gastelum vs Joe Pyfer Pick, 03/29/2025 Predictions UFC Mexico City Odds

by Josh Schonwald - 3/26/2025

Kelvin Gastelum vs Joe Pyfer

UFC Mexico City

Arena CDMX in Mexico City

Saturday, March 29, 2025

Kelvin Gastelum will face off against Joe Pyfer at UFC Mexico City on Saturday, March 29, 2025. The opening moneyline has Gastelum coming in at +240 while Pyfer is at -298.

Kelvin Gastelum looks to add a win to his career record of 20-9-0 (1 NC). The 33-year-old records a weight of 185 lbs and comes in at 5'9". The southpaw fighter has a reach of 71". Joe "Bodybagz" Pyfer measures in at 6'2" and records a weight of 185 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the Octagon with a mark of 13-3-0. The 28-year-old has a wingspan of 75". Concerning significant strikes, Kelvin Gastelum lands 3.74 per min and Joe Pyfer connects on 3.72 significant strikes per min. Gastelum is connecting on 42% of the significant strikes he throws and Pyfer lands 41%. Concerning the fighter's defense, Gastelum takes 3.48 significant strikes per min while "Bodybagz" allows 3.48. Gastelum also deflects 57% of the significant strikes that are thrown his way while Pyfer is able to stop 51% of them.

ufc picks Kelvin Gastelum ufc predictions best bet odds

UFC Mexico City	Kelvin Gastelum	Joe Pyfer
Opening Odds	+240	-298
Record	20-9-0 (1 NC)	13-3-0
Average Fight Time	13:37	7:23
Height	5'9"	6'2"
Weight	185 lbs	185 lbs
Reach	71"	75"
Strikes Landed Per Minute	3.74	3.72
Striking Accuracy	42%	41%

In terms of wrestling, Kelvin Gastelum is the lesser skilled wrestler as he is averaging a takedown 1.10 times per 15 min. Gastelum is taking his opponents to the canvas on 34% of the times he tries and thwarting 59% of the takedowns his opponents attempt. Pyfer is scoring a takedown on 41% of his takedown attempts and stopping 50% of the attempts against him. Regarding going for the sub, Gastelum is the lesser skilled fighter by going for 0.1 submissions per 15 minutes while Pyfer goes for 0.9 submissions per 3 rounds.

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In his last appearance in the Octagon, Kelvin Gastelum squared up with Daniel Rodriguez and got a win for the night via unanimous decision in round 3. Rodriguez landed 132 of 273 total strikes attempted in that fight. Gastelum finished this fight landing 123 of 250 total strikes. In terms of significant strikes, Rodriguez landed 127 of 265, which gave him a rate of 47%. He finished the fight landing 82 of 214 significant strikes aimed at the head. On the other side of the cage, Gastelum landed 47% of his significant strikes by connecting on 112 of 238. Out of all the significant strikes thrown, he landed 77 of 193 to the head. 100% of the significant strikes landed by Rodriguez and 93% of them connected on by Gastelum were tallied at distance.

In the last bout for Joe Pyfer, he squared up with Marc-Andre Barriault and wound up taking home the victory via a punch to the head in round 1. Barriault landed 0% of his significant strikes at distance and Pyfer landed 87% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance. Pyfer landed 80% of his significant strikes attempted by landing 8 of 10. He connected on 4 of 5 significant strikes aimed at the head. Barriault connected on 0 of 5 significant strikes in that contest. In regard to the placement of these significant strikes, he ended up landing 0 of 3 to the head. In relation to total strikes that he let go in that contest, Barriault was 0 of 5 while Pyfer connected on 8 of 10 of all the strikes he threw.

Other bouts on the card to watch

An additional bout that shouldn't be missed is when Raul Rosas Jr. takes on Vince Morales. Rosas Jr. will be looking to add a win to his career total of 10-1-0. The 20-year-old will fight at 135 lbs and measures in at 5'9". The switch fighter has a wingspan of 67". Morales comes in at 5'7" and steps on the scale at 135 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the cage holding a record of 16-9-0. The 34-year-old has a reach of 70". In the grappling category, Raul Rosas Jr. takes his opponents to the canvas 4.02 times per 3 rounds while Vince Morales is averaging a takedown 0.54 times per 15 minutes. When it comes to striking, Rosas Jr. lands 1.55 strikes/min and is landing 43% of the strikes that he attempts. Joining him in the Octagon is Vince Morales, who is landing 37% of the strikes he has thrown and is landing 3.84 per min.

If you're going to be watching the fights, don't miss when Saimon Oliveira is set to enter the Octagon with David Martinez. Martinez will be looking to add a victory to his career total of 11-1-0. The 26-year-old weighs in at 135 lbs and measures in at 5'6". The orthodox fighter has a reach of 66". Oliveira measures 5'4" and tips the scales at 135 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the cage holding a mark of 18-5-0. The 33-year-old reaches 72". When it comes to takedowns, David Martinez curbs 85% of the takedowns his opponents try and is taking his opponents down on 15% of his attempts. Oliveira is finishing his takedowns on 25% of the attempts he tries and is able to thwart 35% of takedowns his opponents have tried. With regard to striking, Martinez absorbs 3.07 strikes per min while he is dealing 5.27 strikes per minute. Oliveira, notwithstanding, is absorbing 3.91 strikes per minute and is connecting on 2.82 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Kelvin Gastelum (+240)

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Kelvin Gastelum vs Joe Pyfer Pick, 03/29/2025 Predictions UFC Mexico City Odds

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