Justin Gaethje vs Rafael Fiziev Pick, 03/08/2025 Predictions UFC 313 Odds

Justin Gaethje vs Rafael Fiziev

UFC 313

T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas

Saturday, March 8, 2025

Justin Gaethje will face off against Rafael Fiziev at UFC 313 on Saturday, March 8, 2025. The odds have Gaethje at -160 while Fiziev is priced at -155.

Justin "The Highlight" Gaethje steps into the Octagon with a record of 25-5-0. The 36-year-old weighs in at 155 lbs and stands 5'11". The orthodox fighter reaches 70". Rafael "Ataman" Fiziev comes in at 5'8" and weighs 155 lbs. The switch fighter steps into the cage holding a mark of 12-3-0. The 31-year-old reaches 71". In the category of significant strikes, Justin Gaethje is landing 6.78 per minute and Rafael Fiziev is connecting on 4.90 significant strikes per minute. Gaethje connects on 59% of the significant strikes he tries while Fiziev is landing 51%. When it comes to defending in the cage, "The Highlight" absorbs 7.46 significant strikes per minute while "Ataman" absorbs 4.97. Gaethje also curbs 52% of the significant strikes his opponents throw at him while Fiziev is able to thwart 49% of them.

Concerning takedowns, Justin Gaethje is not as efficient of a grappler as he is averaging a takedown 0.11 times per 15 min. Gaethje is scoring a takedown on 25% of his attempts and is defending 75% of takedowns his opponents have tried. Fiziev is getting his opponent to the mat on 40% of the takedowns he tries and is stopping 89% of all takedowns attempted by his opposition. Regarding going for the sub, Gaethje is the lesser skilled of the two fighters by going for 0.5 finishes per 3 rounds while Fiziev looks to get 0.9 finishes per 15 min.

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In his previous bout, Justin Gaethje went up against Max Holloway and took a loss on the night by a punch to the head in round 5. Holloway landed 181 of 309 total strikes that he let go. Gaethje ended the night having landed 103 of 199 total strikes. When talking about significant strikes, Holloway landed 181 of 309, which gave him a percentage of 58%. He finished the fight landing 62 of 149 significant strikes aimed at the head. On the other side of the Octagon, Gaethje landed 51% of his significant strikes by landing 103 of 199. Of those significant strikes, he landed 44 of 121 to the head. 100% of the significant strikes landed by Holloway and 100% of them connected on by Gaethje were done at distance.

In the last fight for Rafael Fiziev, he fought Mateusz Gamrot and walked away in defeat via a leg injury in round 2. Gamrot connected on 81% of his significant strikes at distance while Fiziev ended up landing 100% of the significant strikes he attempted from distance. Fiziev ended up landing 56% of the significant strikes he attempted by landing 18 of 32. He ended up connecting on 4 of 14 significant strikes aimed at the head. Gamrot ended up landing 16 of 40 significant strikes in that battle. Out of those significant strikes, he ended up connecting on 11 of 31 aimed at the head. When discussing total strikes that he threw in that fight, Gamrot landed 17 of 42 while Fiziev ended up connecting on 19 of 34 of all the strikes he threw.

Other fights to watch out for

One more match to look forward to is when Jalin Turner opposes Ignacio Bahamondes. Turner steps into the Octagon holding a record of 14-8-0. The 29-year-old is weighing in at 155 lbs and stands in at 6'3". The southpaw fighter has a reach of 77". Bahamondes measures in at 6'3" and is fighting at 155 lbs. The orthodox fighter will be looking to add a victory to his total of 16-5-0. The 27-year-old has a wingspan of 75". When it comes to grappling, Jalin Turner is averaging a takedown 0.79 times per 15 min and Ignacio Bahamondes is averaging a takedown 0.40 times per 15 min. When talking about striking, Turner lands 5.60 strikes per min and landing 48% out of all the strikes he attempts. On the other side we have Ignacio Bahamondes, who tags the opposition on 47% of the strikes he has thrown and is connecting on 7.17 per min.

If you're going to be watching the fights, don't miss when Mauricio Ruffy is set to square up in the Octagon against King Green. Green will be looking to add a win to his record of 32-16-1 (1 NC). The 38-year-old weighs 155 lbs and measures in at 5'10". The orthodox fighter has a reach of 71". Ruffy measures in at 5'11" and tips the scales at 155 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the cage with a mark of 11-1-0. The 28-year-old reaches 75". Regarding takedowns, King Green is able to defend against 74% of the takedowns his opponents attempt and is finishing his takedowns on 39% of his tries. Ruffy is taking his opponents to the mat on 15% of the tries he takes and defends against 85% of takedowns his opponents have tried. Concerning striking, Green is taking 3.73 strikes/minute while he is landing 6.43 strikes per minute. Ruffy, on the other side, is taking 4.76 strikes/min and dishes out 4.70 per minute.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Rafael Fiziev (-155)

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