Jose Daniel Medina vs Ateba Gautier Pick, 03/29/2025 Predictions UFC Mexico City Odds

by Tony Sink - 3/26/2025

Jose Daniel Medina vs Ateba Gautier

UFC Mexico City

Arena CDMX in Mexico City

Saturday, March 29, 2025

Jose Daniel Medina will take on Ateba Gautier at UFC Mexico City on Saturday, March 29, 2025. The opener has Medina priced at +320 while Gautier is priced at -410.

Jose "Chicho" Daniel Medina walks into the cage holding a record of 11-4-0. The 33-year-old will fight at 185 lbs and stands in at 6'0". The orthodox fighter extends his reach 74". Ateba "The Silent Assassin" Gautier stands 6'4" and weighs in at 185 lbs. The switch fighter steps into the Octagon with a record of 6-1-0. The 22-year-old stretches 81". With respect to significant strikes, Jose Daniel Medina is landing 1.87 per min while Ateba Gautier is landing 5.33 significant strikes per minute. Daniel Medina is landing 33% of the significant strikes he throws while Gautier is connecting on 71%. When it comes to defending in the Octagon, "Chicho" allows 4.93 significant strikes per min while "The Silent Assassin" allows 1.22. Daniel Medina also curbs 48% of the significant strikes that are directed at him while Gautier is able to stop 56% of the strikes thrown his way.

ufc picks Jose Daniel Medina predictions best bet odds

UFC Mexico City	Jose Daniel Medina	Ateba Gautier
Opening Odds	+320	-410
Record	11-4-0	6-1-0
Average Fight Time	15:00	9:00
Height	6'0"	6'4"
Weight	185 lbs	185 lbs
Reach	74"	81"
Strikes Landed Per Minute	1.87	5.33
Striking Accuracy	33%	71%

When it comes to wrestling, Jose Daniel Medina is not as effective of a grappler as he takes his opponents down 0.50 times per 15 minutes. Daniel Medina is finishing his takedown attempts on 33% of the times he tries and defending 31% of all takedowns attempted on him. Gautier is finishing his takedowns on 15% of the takedowns he tries and is defending 90% of all takedowns attempted by his opposition. Regarding going for the sub, Daniel Medina is the lesser skilled fighter by trying 0.2 finishes per 3 rounds while Gautier attempts 0.7 finishes per 15 min.

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In his last bout, Jose Daniel Medina faced Zachary Reese and wound up walking away in defeat via unanimous decision in round 3. Reese ended up landing 101 of 162 of the strikes he let go in total for this contest. Medina finished this fight landing 53 of 97 total strikes. When it comes to significant strikes, Reese ended up landing 75 of 129, which means his percentage was 58%. He landed 42 of 85 significant strikes aimed at the head. Statistically, Medina ended up landing 43% of his significant strikes by connecting on 32 of 74. In regard to the placement of these significant strikes, he connected on 20 of 55 to the head. 76% of the significant strikes connected on by Reese and 93% of them connected on by Medina were thrown at distance.

In the last bout for Ateba Gautier, he faced off with Yura Naito and wound up getting the victory by way of a punch to the head in round 2. Naito landed 9% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance while Gautier connected on 22% of his significant strikes at distance. Gautier landed 71% of the significant strikes he attempted by connecting on 48 of 67. He connected on 41 of 59 significant strikes to the head. Naito connected on 11 of 25 significant strikes in that battle. Of those significant strikes, he ended up landing 11 of 23 directed at the head. When discussing total strikes that he let go in that contest, Naito ended up landing 14 of 31 while Gautier landed 86 of 113 of the strikes he threw in total.

Other bouts on the card to watch out for

Another fight that you're going to want to watch is when Christian Rodriguez goes up against Melquizael Costa. Rodriguez comes into this fight holding a mark of 12-2-0. The 27-year-old weighs 145 lbs and stands in at 5'7". The orthodox fighter reaches 71". Costa stands 5'10" and weighs 145 lbs. The southpaw fighter looks to add a victory to his career record of 22-7-0. The 28-year-old has a wingspan of 71". When it comes to grappling, Christian Rodriguez takes his opponents down 1.21 times per 15 min while Melquizael Costa takes his opponents down 2.26 times per 3 rds. When it comes to striking, Rodriguez lands an average of 3.54 strikes per minute and connecting on 48% out of all the strikes he attempts. On the other side we have Melquizael Costa, who connects on 46% of the strikes he has attempted and is connecting on 3.70 per minute.

Another must see fight on the night is when Vinc Pichel is set to face off against Rafa Garcia. Garcia looks to add a win to his record of 16-4-0. The 30-year-old tips the scales at 155 lbs and measures 5'7". The orthodox fighter extends his reach 70". Pichel measures in at 5'10" and weighs in at 155 lbs. The orthodox fighter will be looking to add a win to his record of 14-4-0. The 42-year-old extends his reach 72". Concerning wrestling, Rafa Garcia stops 75% of the takedowns fighters have attempted and is taking his opponents down on 44% of his tries. Pichel is finishing his takedowns on 54% of the attempts he tries and is able to deflect 25% of the takedowns his opponents try. With reference to striking, Garcia absorbs 4.36 strikes/min while he is connecting on 3.97 strikes/min. Pichel, at the same time, is taking 3.05 strikes per min and lands 3.62 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Ateba Gautier (-410)

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Jose Daniel Medina vs Ateba Gautier Pick, 03/29/2025 Predictions UFC Mexico City Odds

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