Jailton Almeida vs Serghei Spivac Pick, 01/18/2025 Predictions UFC 311 Odds

by Guy Bruhn - 1/15/2025

Jailton Almeida vs Serghei Spivac

UFC 311

Intuit Dome in Inglewood, CA

Saturday, January 18, 2025

Jailton Almeida will battle Serghei Spivac at UFC 311 on Saturday, January 18, 2025. The moneyline has Almeida at -425 while Spivac is priced at +330.

Jailton "Malhadinho" Almeida will be looking to add a win to his career total of 21-3-0. The 33-year-old is fighting at 205 lbs and measures in at 6'3". The orthodox fighter stretches 79". Serghei "Polar Bear" Spivac measures 6'3" and records a weight of 260 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a win to his record of 17-4-0. The 29-year-old reaches 78". When talking about significant strikes, Jailton Almeida is landing 2.46 per minute while Serghei Spivac is landing 3.51 significant strikes per min. Almeida connects on 64% of the significant strikes he attempts and Spivac is landing 49%. In terms of defending in the Octagon, "Malhadinho" allows 0.72 significant strikes per min while "Polar Bear" absorbs 3.72. Almeida also stops 40% of the significant strikes his opponents attempt while Spivac thwarts 50% of them.

ufc picks Jailton Almeida ufc predictions best bet odds

UFC 311	Jailton Almeida	Serghei Spivac
Opening Odds	-425	+330
Record	21-3-0	17-4-0
Average Fight Time	7:03	7:33
Height	6'3"	6'3"
Weight	205 lbs	260 lbs
Reach	79"	78"
Strikes Landed Per Minute	2.46	3.51
Striking Accuracy	64%	49%

In terms of grappling, Jailton Almeida is the more effective grappler as he takes his opponents down 6.85 times per 3 rounds. Almeida is taking his opponents to the canvas on 59% of the times he tries and stuffing 75% of all takedown tries against him. Spivac is getting his opponent to the mat on 65% of the takedowns he tries and is stopping 70% of all takedowns attempted by his opposition. In terms of going for the sub, Almeida is the more experienced submission fighter by attempting 2.6 finishes per 3 rds while Spivac goes for 0.7 finishes per 15 min.

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In his last fight, Jailton Almeida fought Alexandr Romanov and wound up getting the victory via rear naked choke in round 1. Romanov ended up landing 1 of 1 total strikes attempted in that fight. Almeida finished this fight landing 2 of 3 total strikes. When it comes to significant strikes, Romanov ended up landing 1 of 1, which gave him a rate of 100%. He finished the fight landing 0 of 0 significant strikes directed at the head. In terms of stats for the opponent, Almeida landed 50% of his significant strikes by landing 1 of 2. Of all the significant strikes, he connected on 0 of 0 pointed at the head. 100% of the significant strikes landed by Romanov and 100% of them connected on by Almeida were tallied at distance.

In the last fight for Serghei Spivac, he squared up with Marcin Tybura and wound up getting the win via an armbar from bottom guard in round 1. Tybura landed 33% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance while Spivac connected on 100% of the significant strikes he attempted from distance. Spivac connected on 60% of the significant strikes he attempted by landing 3 of 5. He ended up connecting on 2 of 4 significant strikes directed at the head. Tybura ended up landing 0 of 4 significant strikes in that contest. In regard to the placement of these significant strikes, he landed 0 of 2 aimed at the head. When discussing total strikes that he let go, Tybura landed 9 of 18 and Spivac ended up connecting on 8 of 11 of all the strikes he threw.

Other fights to watch

An additional bout that shouldn't be missed is when Grant Dawson squares up against Diego Ferreira. Dawson steps into the cage holding a mark of 22-2-1. The 30-year-old weighs 155 lbs and stands in at 5'10". The switch fighter has a reach of 72". Ferreira stands in at 5'9" and steps on the scale at 155 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the Octagon with a record of 19-5-0. The 39-year-old stretches 74". Regarding grappling, Grant Dawson takes his opponents down 3.65 times per 3 rds and Diego Ferreira takes his opponents to the canvas 0.96 times per 15 minutes. In terms of striking, Dawson connects on 3.15 strikes per min and is connecting on 52% out of all the strikes he attempts. The other fighter in this bout is Diego Ferreira, who is landing 39% of the strikes he has thrown and is landing 5.04 per minute.

Another must see fight on the night is when Muin Gafurov is set to face off with Rinya Nakamura. Nakamura holds a mark of 9-0-0. The 29-year-old weighs 135 lbs and measures 5'7". The southpaw fighter reaches 68". Gafurov comes in at 5'7" and weighs in at 135 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a victory to his record of 19-6-0. The 28-year-old has a reach of 68". In terms of wrestling, Rinya Nakamura is able to curb 85% of the takedowns fighters have attempted and is finishing his takedown attempts on 90% of the times he tries. Gafurov is taking his opponents down on 27% of the attempts he tries and deflects 68% of all takedown tries against him. Concerning striking, Nakamura absorbs 1.38 strikes per minute and he is dealing 3.53 per minute. Gafurov, at the same time, takes 2.25 strikes/minute and is dishing out 3.03 per minute.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Jailton Almeida (-425)

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Jailton Almeida vs Serghei Spivac Pick, 01/18/2025 Predictions UFC 311 Odds

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