Grant Dawson vs Diego Ferreira Pick, 01/18/2025 Predictions UFC 311 Odds

by Tony Sink - 1/15/2025

Grant Dawson vs Diego Ferreira

UFC 311

Intuit Dome in Inglewood, CA

Saturday, January 18, 2025

Grant Dawson will take on Diego Ferreira at UFC 311 on Saturday, January 18, 2025. The opening line has Dawson priced at -258 while Ferreira is priced at +210.

Grant "KGD" Dawson steps into the cage holding a mark of 22-2-1. The 30-year-old weighs 155 lbs and stands in at 5'10". The switch fighter has a reach of 72". Diego Ferreira stands in at 5'9" and steps on the scale at 155 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the Octagon with a record of 19-5-0. The 39-year-old stretches 74". Regarding significant strikes, Grant Dawson is landing 3.15 per minute while Diego Ferreira connects on 5.04 significant strikes per minute. Dawson is connecting on 52% of the significant strikes he attempts and Ferreira lands 39%. Regarding defending in the Octagon, "KGD" allows 2.04 significant strikes per min while Ferreira absorbs 3.43. Dawson also stops 45% of the significant strikes his opponents throw his way while Ferreira thwarts 56% of the strikes thrown his way.

ufc picks Grant Dawson ufc predictions best bet odds

UFC 311	Grant Dawson	Diego Ferreira
Opening Odds	-258	+210
Record	22-2-1	19-5-0
Average Fight Time	11:04	9:25
Height	5'10"	5'9"
Weight	155 lbs	155 lbs
Reach	72"	74"
Strikes Landed Per Minute	3.15	5.04
Striking Accuracy	52%	39%

Regarding takedowns, Grant Dawson is the more skilled wrestler as he gets a takedown 3.65 times per 15 min. Dawson is taking his opponents to the canvas on 38% of his attempts and is defending 57% of all takedown tries against him. Ferreira is finishing his takedown attempts on 30% of the takedowns he attempts and stopping 60% of all takedowns attempted by his opposition. Regarding subbing the opposition, Dawson is the more experienced of the two fighters by attempting 1.2 subs per 15 min while Ferreira looks to get 0.6 subs per 3 rounds.

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In his previous fight, Grant Dawson went up against Rafa Garcia and wound up getting the victory by way of a punch to the head in round 2. Garcia ended up landing 29 of 38 total strikes that he threw in that contest. Dawson ended the night having landed 80 of 144 total strikes. Concerning significant strikes, Garcia landed 5 of 12, which gave him a percentage of 41%. He finished the fight landing 4 of 8 significant strikes aimed at the head. Statistically, Dawson landed 48% of the significant strikes he threw by landing 44 of 90. Of all the significant strikes, he landed 38 of 76 to the head. 80% of the significant strikes connected on by Garcia and 11% of them landed by Dawson were thrown at a distance.

In the last Octagon appearance for Diego Ferreira, he faced off with Mateusz Rebecki and got a win for the night by punches to the head from the mount position in round 3. Rebecki ended up connecting on 88% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance while Ferreira ended up landing 76% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance. Ferreira ended up landing 51% of the significant strikes he attempted by connecting on 123 of 241. He ended up landing 94 of 189 significant strikes to the head. Rebecki ended up landing 52 of 137 significant strikes in that fight. Out of those significant strikes, he ended up connecting on 34 of 109 aimed at the head. Relating to total strikes that he threw in that fight, Rebecki ended up landing 60 of 146 and Ferreira was 151 of 272 total strikes.

Other fights on the card to keep an eye on

Another bout that you're not going to want to miss is when Rinya Nakamura squares up against Muin Gafurov. Nakamura holds a mark of 9-0-0. The 29-year-old weighs 135 lbs and measures 5'7". The southpaw fighter reaches 68". Gafurov comes in at 5'7" and weighs in at 135 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a victory to his record of 19-6-0. The 28-year-old has a reach of 68". When it comes to grappling, Rinya Nakamura is averaging a takedown 3.72 times per 15 minutes and Muin Gafurov gets a takedown 1.95 times per 15 minutes. Regarding striking, Nakamura tags his opponents 3.53 strikes/min and connects on 54% out of all the strikes he attempts. On the other side of the cage we have Muin Gafurov, who connects on 47% of his attempted strikes and lands an average of 3.03 per min.

Another must see fight on the night is when Benardo Sopaj is set to square up in the Octagon with Ricky Turcios. Turcios will be looking to add a victory to his record of 13-4-0. The 31-year-old is fighting at 135 lbs and comes in at 5'9". The orthodox fighter has a wingspan of 71". Sopaj measures 5'6" and is fighting at 135 lbs. The orthodox fighter holds a record of 11-3-0. The 24-year-old reaches 66". In terms of grappling, Ricky Turcios is able to curb 45% of the takedowns his opponents try and is taking his opponents down on 25% of his tries. Sopaj is taking his opponents down on 75% of the attempts he tries and is able to stop 50% of the takedowns his opponents try. In the category of striking, Turcios is absorbing 3.34 strikes/min and he is dealing 4.63 strikes per min. Sopaj, notwithstanding, takes 4.56 strikes/min and is connecting on 3.06 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Diego Ferreira (+210)

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Grant Dawson vs Diego Ferreira Pick, 01/18/2025 Predictions UFC 311 Odds

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