Diyar Nurgozhay vs Brendson Ribeiro Pick, 03/15/2025 Predictions UFC Vegas 104 Odds
Diyar Nurgozhay vs Brendson Ribeiro
UFC Vegas 104
UFC Apex in Las Vegas
Saturday, March 15, 2025
Diyar Nurgozhay will take on Brendson Ribeiro at UFC Vegas 104 on Saturday, March 15, 2025. The opener has Nurgozhay coming in at -355 while Ribeiro is priced at +280.
Diyar Nurgozhay looks to add a win to his record of 10-0-0. The 27-year-old is fighting at 205 lbs and stands in at 6'2". The southpaw fighter has an arm span of 74". Brendson "The Gorilla" Ribeiro measures 6'3" and is fighting at 205 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a win to his career record of 16-7-0 (1 NC). The 28-year-old extends his reach 81". When talking about significant strikes, Diyar Nurgozhay is landing 3.52 per minute and Brendson Ribeiro is landing 3.16 significant strikes per min. Nurgozhay is connecting on 52% of the significant strikes he attempts and Ribeiro lands 42%. When it comes to defending in the cage, Nurgozhay takes 2.70 significant strikes per minute and "The Gorilla" allows 3.92. Nurgozhay also defends against 66% of the significant strikes that are aimed in his direction while Ribeiro is able to defend against 54% of them.
| UFC Vegas 104 | Diyar Nurgozhay | Brendson Ribeiro |
|---|---|---|
| Opening Odds | -355 | +280 |
| Record | 10-0-0 | 16-7-0 (1 NC) |
| Average Fight Time | 8:32 | 8:52 |
| Height | 6'2" | 6'3" |
| Weight | 205 lbs | 205 lbs |
| Reach | 74" | 81" |
| Strikes Landed Per Minute | 3.52 | 3.16 |
| Striking Accuracy | 52% | 42% |
Regarding takedowns, Diyar Nurgozhay is the lesser skilled grappler as he is able to score a takedown 0.30 times per 15 minutes. Nurgozhay is getting his opponent to the mat on 15% of his tries and thwarting 85% of takedowns his opponents have tried. Ribeiro is scoring a takedown on 50% of his takedown attempts and is stuffing 15% of all takedowns attempted by his opposition. In terms of going for the sub, Nurgozhay is less likely to go for the finish by going for 0.3 finishes per 15 minutes while Ribeiro tries 0.4 finishes per 15 min.
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The last time he stepped into the Octagon, Diyar Nurgozhay fought Bartosz Szewczyk and ended up winning this fight by way of a kick to the head in round 2. Szewczyk ended up landing 24 of 71 total strikes that he let go in that contest. Nurgozhay finished this fight landing 32 of 60 total strikes. In the category of significant strikes, Szewczyk landed 23 of 69, which gave him a rate of 33%. He landed 6 of 33 significant strikes aimed at the head. On the other side of the Octagon, Nurgozhay landed 52% of the significant strikes he threw by landing 30 of 57. Out of all the significant strikes thrown, he landed 15 of 33 pointed at the head. 100% of the significant strikes landed by Szewczyk and 86% of them connected on by Nurgozhay were tallied at distance.
In the last Octagon appearance for Brendson Ribeiro, he went up against Caio Machado and got a win for the night via split decision in round 3. Machado connected on 100% of his significant strikes at distance and Ribeiro ended up landing 100% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance. Ribeiro ended up landing 37% of the significant strikes he attempted by landing 49 of 131. He ended up connecting on 25 of 93 significant strikes aimed at the head. Machado ended up connecting on 76 of 184 significant strikes in that contest. Looking at the significant strike accuracy, he ended up landing 24 of 114 aimed at the head. In terms of the total strikes thrown in this fight, Machado connected on 79 of 187 and Ribeiro connected on 49 of 131 of the strikes he threw in total.
Other fights on the card to watch out for
An additional bout that shouldn't be missed is when Carlos Vera meets Josias Musasa. Vera walks into the Octagon with a record of 11-4-0. The 37-year-old is fighting at 135 lbs and stands 5'6". The orthodox fighter stretches 69". Musasa comes in at 5'8" and records a weight of 135 lbs. The southpaw fighter steps into the cage with a record of 8-0-0. The 26-year-old has an arm span of 74". In the grappling category, Carlos Vera gets his opposition to the mat 0.20 times per 15 min and Josias Musasa is averaging a takedown 1.00 times per 3 rounds. Regarding striking, Vera lands 0.80 strikes per minute and is landing 48% of his attempted strikes. The other guy in this fight is Josias Musasa, who is connecting on 44% of the strikes he has tried and connects on 3.33 per minute.
Another must see fight on the night is when Andre Lima is set to take on Daniel Barez. Barez will be looking to add a win to his career record of 17-6-0. The 36-year-old will fight at 125 lbs and measures in at 5'6". The orthodox fighter has a reach of 66". Lima measures 5'7" and steps on the scale at 125 lbs. The orthodox fighter will be looking to add a win to his record of 10-0-0. The 26-year-old has a wingspan of 67". Concerning wrestling, Daniel Barez is able to curb 92% of the takedowns his opponents go for and is finishing his takedown attempts on 31% of the times he tries. Lima is finishing his takedown tries on 66% of his attempts and stops 73% of takedowns his opponents have tried. With regard to striking, Barez absorbs 5.05 strikes per min and he is dishing out 4.10 per min. Lima, moreover, is taking 2.48 strikes per min and is connecting on 3.03 per min.
Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?
Tony Sink's Pick: Take Brendson Ribeiro (+280)
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