Darren Elkins vs Julian Erosa Pick, 04/12/2025 Predictions UFC 314 Odds

Darren Elkins vs Julian Erosa

UFC 314

Kaseya Center in Miami

Saturday, April 12, 2025

Darren Elkins will take on Julian Erosa at UFC 314 on Saturday, April 12, 2025. The odds have Elkins priced at +275 while Erosa is priced at -345.

Darren "The Damage" Elkins looks to add a victory to his total of 29-11-0. The 40-year-old weighs in at 145 lbs and measures 5'10". The orthodox fighter has a reach of 71". Julian "Juicy J" Erosa stands 6'1" and is weighing in at 145 lbs. The southpaw fighter steps into the cage with a mark of 30-12-0. The 35-year-old has a reach of 74". In terms of significant strikes, Darren Elkins connects on 3.40 per min while Julian Erosa is connecting on 6.18 significant strikes per min. Elkins lands 38% of the significant strikes he throws and Erosa is landing 48%. In terms of defending themselves, "The Damage" takes 3.22 significant strikes per min and "Juicy J" takes 6.31. Elkins also stops 51% of the significant strikes that are directed at him while Erosa thwarts 48% of the shots thrown.

In terms of takedowns, Darren Elkins is the more skilled wrestler as he is able to score a takedown 2.86 times per 3 rds. Elkins is scoring a takedown on 34% of his tries and stuffing 56% of all takedown tries against him. Erosa is taking his opponents to the mat on 48% of the takedowns he attempts and is defending 58% of all takedowns attempted on him. Regarding subbing the opposition, Elkins is the more experienced of the two fighters by attempting 1.1 finishes per 3 rds while Erosa looks to get 0.8 finishes per 15 minutes.

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The last time he fought, Darren Elkins faced Daniel Pineda and wound up getting the win via unanimous decision in round 3. Pineda landed 61 of 85 total strikes attempted in that fight. Elkins ended the night having landed 102 of 170 total strikes. When talking about significant strikes, Pineda landed 31 of 53, which means his percentage was 58%. He finished the fight landing 21 of 38 significant strikes to the head. Statistically, Elkins ended up landing 44% of his significant strikes by landing 39 of 88. Out of all the significant strikes thrown, he landed 30 of 78 pointed at the head. 54% of the significant strikes connected on by Pineda and 71% of them landed by Elkins were thrown at distance.

In the last Octagon appearance for Julian Erosa, he fought Christian Rodriguez and ended up getting the victory via guillotine choke in round 1. Rodriguez connected on 93% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance and Erosa ended up landing 94% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance. Erosa connected on 39% of the significant strikes he attempted by landing 35 of 88. He connected on 27 of 73 significant strikes aimed at the head. Rodriguez ended up landing 33 of 75 significant strikes in that fight. In terms of accuracy for the significant strikes, he ended up connecting on 26 of 67 to the head. Regarding total strikes thrown, Rodriguez was 33 of 76 and Erosa connected on 39 of 94 of the strikes he threw in total.

Other fights to watch

Another bout that you're not going to want to miss is when Sedriques Dumas enters the Octagon with Michal Oleksiejczuk. Dumas steps into the cage holding a mark of 10-2-0. The 29-year-old weighs 185 lbs and stands in at 6'2". The orthodox fighter reaches 79". Oleksiejczuk stands 6'0" and tips the scales at 185 lbs. The southpaw fighter will be looking to add a win to his career total of 19-9-0 (1 NC). The 30-year-old has a wingspan of 74". In the grappling category, Sedriques Dumas takes his opponents to the canvas 1.31 times per 15 min while Michal Oleksiejczuk scores a takedown 1.08 times per 15 min. Regarding striking, Dumas tags his opponents 2.15 strikes per min and landing 48% of his attempted strikes. On the other side of the cage we have Michal Oleksiejczuk, who is connecting on 50% of the strikes he attempts and connects on 5.08 per min.

An additional fight that you're going to want to see is when Mitch Raposo is set to fight Su Mudaerji. Mudaerji looks to add a win to his total of 16-7-0. The 29-year-old weighs in at 125 lbs and comes in at 5'8". The southpaw fighter reaches 72". Raposo comes in at 5'5" and is weighing in at 125 lbs. The switch fighter walks into the cage holding a mark of 9-2-0. The 26-year-old has a reach of 64". In terms of grappling, Su Mudaerji is able to stop 66% of the takedowns his opponents try and is getting his opponent to the mat on 25% of his tries. Raposo is finishing his takedown tries on 60% of his tries and is able to deflect 50% of takedowns his opponents have tried. In the matter of striking, Mudaerji is taking 3.09 strikes/minute and he is landing 4.72 per min. Raposo, on the other hand, is taking 3.32 strikes per minute and is dishing out 2.29 per minute.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Darren Elkins (+275)

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