Christian Rodriguez vs Melquizael Costa Pick, 03/29/2025 Predictions UFC Mexico City Odds

by Josh Schonwald - 3/26/2025

Christian Rodriguez vs Melquizael Costa

UFC Mexico City

Arena CDMX in Mexico City

Saturday, March 29, 2025

Christian Rodriguez will enter the Octagon with Melquizael Costa at UFC Mexico City on Saturday, March 29, 2025. The line has Rodriguez priced at -155 while Costa is coming in at +130.

Christian Rodriguez comes into this fight holding a mark of 12-2-0. The 27-year-old weighs 145 lbs and stands in at 5'7". The orthodox fighter reaches 71". Melquizael "Melk Cauthy" Costa stands 5'10" and weighs 145 lbs. The southpaw fighter looks to add a victory to his career record of 22-7-0. The 28-year-old has a wingspan of 71". In the category of significant strikes, Christian Rodriguez connects on 3.54 per min while Melquizael Costa is landing 3.70 significant strikes per minute. Rodriguez is landing 48% of the significant strikes he attempts and Costa is connecting on 46%. In terms of the fighter's defense, Rodriguez absorbs 2.41 significant strikes per minute and "Melk Cauthy" absorbs 2.22. Rodriguez also prevents 57% of the significant strikes that are aimed in his direction and Costa curbs 59% of the shots thrown his way.

ufc picks Christian Rodriguez ufc predictions best bet odds

UFC Mexico City	Christian Rodriguez	Melquizael Costa
Opening Odds	-155	+130
Record	12-2-0	22-7-0
Average Fight Time	12:22	9:17
Height	5'7"	5'10"
Weight	145 lbs	145 lbs
Reach	71"	71"
Strikes Landed Per Minute	3.54	3.70
Striking Accuracy	48%	46%

When it comes to grappling, Christian Rodriguez is not as efficient of a grappler as he takes his opponents to the canvas 1.21 times per 3 rds. Rodriguez is taking his opponents to the canvas on 53% of his tries and defending 69% of takedowns his opponents have tried. Costa is taking his opponents down on 33% of the takedowns he attempts and stuffing 50% of the tries against him. When it comes to going for the sub, Rodriguez is the lesser skilled fighter by going for 1.2 finishes per 15 minutes while Costa attempts 1.3 finishes per 3 rounds.

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In his last bout, Christian Rodriguez squared up with Austin Bashi and ended up getting the victory in the fight by unanimous decision in round 3. Bashi landed 32 of 60 total strikes that he threw in that contest. Rodriguez ended the night having landed 55 of 93 total strikes. In the significant strikes category, Bashi ended up landing 23 of 50, giving him a percentage of 46%. He ended up landing 12 of 34 significant strikes aimed at the head. On the other side of the cage, Rodriguez landed 53% of his significant strikes by landing 44 of 82. Of all the significant strikes, he was 32 of 68 pointed at the head. 73% of the significant strikes connected on by Bashi and 72% of them connected on by Rodriguez were done at a distance.

In the last Octagon appearance for Melquizael Costa, he battled Andre Fili and wound up taking home the win by way of guillotine choke in round 1. Fili connected on 100% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance while Costa ended up landing 96% of the significant strikes he attempted from distance. Costa landed 48% of the significant strikes he attempted by connecting on 27 of 56. He landed 3 of 25 significant strikes to the head. Fili landed 7 of 24 significant strikes in that battle. Out of all the significant strikes thrown, he ended up connecting on 4 of 20 directed at the head. In terms of total strikes that he threw in that fight, Fili ended up connecting on 7 of 24 while Costa was 27 of 56 of all the strikes he attempted.

Other fights to keep an eye on

One more match to look forward to is when Rafa Garcia encounters Vinc Pichel. Garcia looks to add a win to his record of 16-4-0. The 30-year-old tips the scales at 155 lbs and measures 5'7". The orthodox fighter extends his reach 70". Pichel measures in at 5'10" and weighs in at 155 lbs. The orthodox fighter will be looking to add a win to his record of 14-4-0. The 42-year-old extends his reach 72". In the grappling category, Rafa Garcia gets his opposition to the mat 3.38 times per 3 rds while Vinc Pichel is averaging a takedown 2.78 times per 3 rounds. When it comes to striking, Garcia connects on 3.97 strikes/minute and is landing 42% out of all the strikes he attempts. Joining him in the Octagon is Vinc Pichel, who is connecting on 46% of the strikes he has thrown and connects on 3.62 per min.

One more can't miss bout is when Gabriel Miranda is set to fight Jamall Emmers. Emmers looks to add a win to his career total of 20-8-0. The 35-year-old tips the scales at 145 lbs and stands in at 5'10". The orthodox fighter has a wingspan of 74". Miranda comes in at 5'11" and weighs in at 145 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the Octagon holding a record of 17-7-0. The 35-year-old stretches 71". In the category of takedowns, Jamall Emmers is able to stop 90% of the takedowns his opponents try and is taking his opponents to the mat on 40% of his tries. Miranda is taking his opponents down on 33% of his attempts and defends against 15% of all takedown tries against him. Concerning striking, Emmers is absorbing 4.05 strikes per minute while he is landing 5.30 strikes/minute. Miranda, moreover, is taking 5.30 strikes per min and connects on 2.82 per minute.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Christian Rodriguez (-155)

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Christian Rodriguez vs Melquizael Costa Pick, 03/29/2025 Predictions UFC Mexico City Odds

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