Brandon Moreno vs Steve Erceg Pick, 03/29/2025 Predictions UFC Mexico City Odds

by Guy Bruhn - 3/26/2025

Brandon Moreno vs Steve Erceg

UFC Mexico City

Arena CDMX in Mexico City

Saturday, March 29, 2025

Brandon Moreno will face off against Steve Erceg at UFC Mexico City on Saturday, March 29, 2025. The opening moneyline has Moreno coming in at -238 while Erceg is at +195.

Brandon "The Assassin Baby" Moreno steps into the Octagon with a record of 22-8-2. The 31-year-old is weighing in at 125 lbs and comes in at 5'7". The orthodox fighter has an arm span of 70". Steve "Astroboy" Erceg comes in at 5'8" and weighs in at 125 lbs. The orthodox fighter will be looking to add a victory to his career total of 12-3-0. The 29-year-old has a reach of 68". When talking about significant strikes, Brandon Moreno is connecting on 3.99 per minute and Steve Erceg lands 4.37 significant strikes per min. Moreno connects on 43% of the significant strikes he tries and Erceg connects on 48%. In terms of defending in the Octagon, "The Assassin Baby" allows 3.53 significant strikes per min while "Astroboy" absorbs 4.22. Moreno also thwarts 60% of the significant strikes that are thrown his way while Erceg deflects 53% of them.

ufc picks Brandon Moreno ufc predictions best bet odds

UFC Mexico City	Brandon Moreno	Steve Erceg
Opening Odds	-238	+195
Record	22-8-2	12-3-0
Average Fight Time	16:40	12:54
Height	5'7"	5'8"
Weight	125 lbs	125 lbs
Reach	70"	68"
Strikes Landed Per Minute	3.99	4.37
Striking Accuracy	43%	48%

In terms of takedowns, Brandon Moreno is the more effective grappler as he is averaging a takedown 1.59 times per 3 rds. Moreno is scoring a takedown on 46% of his attempts and thwarting 64% of takedowns his opponents have attempted. Erceg is finishing his takedown tries on 26% of his takedown tries and thwarting 60% of all takedowns attempted on him. Regarding going for the sub, Moreno is not as skilled of a technician by attempting 0.4 finishes per 3 rds while Erceg goes for 0.5 finishes per 3 rds.

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In his previous fight, Brandon Moreno fought Amir Albazi and got a win for the night via unanimous decision in round 5. Albazi ended up landing 63 of 236 of the strikes he let go in total for this contest. Moreno ended the night having landed 132 of 317 total strikes. In terms of significant strikes, Albazi landed 63 of 235, which means his percentage was 26%. He ended up landing 50 of 207 significant strikes directed at the head. Statistically, Moreno landed 41% of his significant strikes by landing 132 of 317. Of those significant strikes, he landed 113 of 284 aimed at the head. 100% of the significant strikes landed by Albazi and 96% of them connected on by Moreno were thrown at distance.

In the last bout for Steve Erceg, he went up against Kai Kara-France and ended up walking away in defeat by a punch to the head in round 1. Kara-France landed 83% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance and Erceg ended up connecting on 100% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance. Erceg landed 31% of the significant strikes he attempted by landing 9 of 29. He ended up landing 8 of 26 significant strikes directed at the head. Kara-France ended up connecting on 18 of 51 significant strikes in that fight. In terms of accuracy for the significant strikes, he ended up landing 11 of 35 aimed at the head. Discussing the total strikes thrown in this fight, Kara-France ended up connecting on 18 of 51 while Erceg ended up connecting on 9 of 29 of all the strikes he attempted.

Other bouts to keep an eye on

An additional bout that shouldn't be missed is when Manuel Torres enters the Octagon with Drew Dober. Torres steps into the Octagon holding a record of 15-3-0. The 30-year-old weighs in at 155 lbs and stands 5'10". The switch fighter reaches 73". Dober measures in at 5'8" and will fight at 155 lbs. The southpaw fighter looks to add a victory to his record of 27-14-0 (1 NC). The 36-year-old reaches 70". When it comes to grappling, Manuel Torres is averaging a takedown 2.26 times per 15 min while Drew Dober gets a takedown 0.67 times per 3 rounds. When it comes to striking, Torres connects for an average of 7.17 strikes per min and is connecting on 55% of the strikes that he attempts. On the other side of the cage you've got Drew Dober, who is connecting on 40% of the strikes he attempts and connects for an average of 4.39 per minute.

An additional fight that you're going to want to see is when Joe Pyfer is set to enter the Octagon against Kelvin Gastelum. Gastelum looks to add a win to his career record of 20-9-0 (1 NC). The 33-year-old records a weight of 185 lbs and comes in at 5'9". The southpaw fighter has a reach of 71". Pyfer measures in at 6'2" and records a weight of 185 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the Octagon with a mark of 13-3-0. The 28-year-old has a wingspan of 75". Concerning grappling, Kelvin Gastelum is preventing 59% of the takedowns fighters have tried and is taking his opponents to the canvas on 34% of his attempts. Pyfer is finishing his takedown tries on 41% of the attempts he tries and deflects 50% of the takedowns his opponents attempt. Concerning striking, Gastelum is taking 3.48 strikes/minute and he connects on 3.74 per min. Pyfer, on the other side, absorbs 3.48 strikes/minute and connects on 3.72 per minute.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Brandon Moreno (-238)

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Brandon Moreno vs Steve Erceg Pick, 03/29/2025 Predictions UFC Mexico City Odds

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