Alexander Volkanovski vs Diego Lopes Pick, 04/12/2025 Predictions UFC 314 Odds

Alexander Volkanovski vs Diego Lopes

UFC 314

Kaseya Center in Miami

Saturday, April 12, 2025

Alexander Volkanovski will face off with Diego Lopes at UFC 314 on Saturday, April 12, 2025. The opening moneyline has Volkanovski coming in at -125 while Lopes is priced at +105.

Alexander "The Great" Volkanovski looks to add a victory to his total of 26-4-0. The 36-year-old is weighing in at 145 lbs and stands in at 5'6". The orthodox fighter has a reach of 71". Diego Lopes comes in at 5'11" and is fighting at 145 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the cage with a mark of 26-6-0. The 30-year-old stretches 72". In the category of significant strikes, Alexander Volkanovski connects on 6.16 per min and Diego Lopes lands 4.20 significant strikes per minute. Volkanovski connects on 56% of the significant strikes he attempts and Lopes is connecting on 53%. Regarding defense, "The Great" allows 3.44 significant strikes per min and Lopes allows 4.11. Volkanovski also thwarts 58% of the significant strikes his opponents throw his way while Lopes is able to deflect 50% of the strikes thrown his way.

In terms of grappling, Alexander Volkanovski is the more capable wrestler as he takes his opponents to the mat 1.78 times per 15 min. Volkanovski is getting his opponent to the mat on 37% of the times he tries and is stuffing 70% of the takedowns his opponents attempt. Lopes is finishing his takedown attempts on 40% of the takedowns he attempts and thwarting 52% of takedowns his opponents have attempted. When it comes to subbing opponents, Volkanovski is not as skilled of a technician by attempting 0.2 finishes per 3 rounds while Lopes goes for 2.8 finishes per 15 minutes.

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In his previous bout, Alexander Volkanovski squared up with Ilia Topuria and ended up taking the loss via a punch to the head in round 2. Topuria ended up landing 36 of 78 total strikes that he let go in that contest. Volkanovski ended the night having landed 47 of 107 total strikes. In terms of significant strikes, Topuria landed 35 of 77, which gave him a percentage of 45%. He ended up landing 17 of 53 significant strikes aimed at the head. On the other side, Volkanovski landed 43% of his significant strikes by connecting on 47 of 107. Out of those significant strikes, he was 21 of 68 pointed at the head. 80% of the significant strikes landed by Topuria and 93% of them landed by Volkanovski were thrown at distance.

In the last Octagon appearance for Diego Lopes, he fought Brian Ortega and wound up getting the victory by unanimous decision in round 3. Ortega landed 96% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance and Lopes landed 70% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance. Lopes landed 51% of his significant strikes attempted by landing 106 of 206. He landed 75 of 172 significant strikes aimed at the head. Ortega ended up landing 63 of 195 significant strikes in that fight. Looking at the significant strike accuracy, he landed 52 of 180 to the head. In regard to total strikes attempted in that contest, Ortega was 69 of 201 and Lopes connected on 113 of 214 of all the strikes he threw.

Other fights to watch

One more match to look forward to is when Michael Chandler squares up in the Octagon against Paddy Pimblett. Chandler looks to add a win to his total of 23-9-0. The 38-year-old weighs in at 155 lbs and comes in at 5'8". The orthodox fighter has a reach of 71". Pimblett comes in at 5'10" and weighs in at 155 lbs. The orthodox fighter comes into this bout holding a record of 22-3-0. The 30-year-old extends his reach 73". When it comes to grappling, Michael Chandler gets a takedown 1.59 times per 3 rds and Paddy Pimblett is able to score a takedown 0.91 times per 3 rounds. In the striking category, Chandler lands an average of 4.49 strikes per min and lands 50% out of all the strikes he attempts. On the other side of the cage we have Paddy Pimblett, who connects on 53% of the strikes he has tried and lands an average of 4.94 per min.

If you're into fun fights, you're going to want to see when Jean Silva is set to square up against Bryce Mitchell. Mitchell comes into this bout with a record of 17-3-0. The 30-year-old steps on the scale at 145 lbs and measures in at 5'10". The southpaw fighter extends his reach 70". Silva stands in at 5'7" and records a weight of 145 lbs. The orthodox fighter comes into this fight with a mark of 15-2-0. The 28-year-old extends his reach 69". When it comes to takedowns, Bryce Mitchell deflects 33% of the takedowns his opponents try and is finishing his takedown tries on 43% of the times he tries. Silva is finishing his takedowns on 50% of his attempts and is able to stop 80% of all takedown attempts. With regard to striking, Mitchell is taking 1.53 strikes/min and he is connecting on 2.31 strikes/min. Silva, on the other side, takes 4.14 strikes/min and deals 5.26 per minute.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Alexander Volkanovski (-125)

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