Alexander Hernandez vs Kurt Holobaugh Pick, 03/15/2025 Predictions UFC Vegas 104 Odds
Alexander Hernandez vs Kurt Holobaugh
UFC Vegas 104
UFC Apex in Las Vegas
Saturday, March 15, 2025
Alexander Hernandez will take on Kurt Holobaugh at UFC Vegas 104 on Saturday, March 15, 2025. The odds have Hernandez coming in at -192 while Holobaugh is at +160.
Alexander "The Great Ape" Hernandez comes into this fight holding a mark of 15-8-0. The 32-year-old is weighing in at 155 lbs and measures in at 5'9". The orthodox fighter stretches 72". Kurt "The Hurt" Holobaugh comes in at 5'11" and steps on the scale at 155 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the cage holding a record of 22-8-0 (1 NC). The 38-year-old has an arm span of 70". Regarding significant strikes, Alexander Hernandez is landing 4.43 per min and Kurt Holobaugh is connecting on 4.63 significant strikes per minute. Hernandez is connecting on 41% of the significant strikes he throws while Holobaugh is landing 45%. Regarding defense, "The Great Ape" allows 4.61 significant strikes per minute while "The Hurt" takes 4.35. Hernandez also curbs 57% of the significant strikes his opponents throw at him while Holobaugh defends against 47% of the shots thrown in his direction.
| UFC Vegas 104 | Alexander Hernandez | Kurt Holobaugh |
|---|---|---|
| Opening Odds | -192 | +160 |
| Record | 15-8-0 | 22-8-0 (1 NC) |
| Average Fight Time | 10:12 | 11:02 |
| Height | 5'9" | 5'11" |
| Weight | 155 lbs | 155 lbs |
| Reach | 72" | 70" |
| Strikes Landed Per Minute | 4.43 | 4.63 |
| Striking Accuracy | 41% | 45% |
When it comes to wrestling, Alexander Hernandez is the more competent wrestler as he takes his opponents to the canvas 0.95 times per 3 rds. Hernandez is getting his opponent to the mat on 29% of his tries and is stuffing 71% of takedowns his opponents have attempted. Holobaugh is taking his opponents down on 33% of his takedown tries and is stuffing 42% of all takedowns attempted on him. When it comes to submissions, Hernandez is less apt at going for the finish by trying 0.1 subs per 3 rounds while Holobaugh tries 0.8 subs per 15 min.
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In his last bout, Alexander Hernandez fought Austin Hubbard and took home the win by split decision in round 3. Hubbard landed 65 of 193 total strikes attempted in that fight. Hernandez finished this fight landing 91 of 217 total strikes. In the significant strikes category, Hubbard landed 63 of 191, which gave him a percentage of 32%. He landed 32 of 142 significant strikes to the head. In terms of stats for the opponent, Hernandez ended up landing 38% of his significant strikes by landing 79 of 204. Of all the significant strikes, he connected on 41 of 144 aimed at the head. 95% of the significant strikes landed by Hubbard and 98% of them connected on by Hernandez were thrown at a distance.
In the last fight for Kurt Holobaugh, he battled Kaynan Kruschewsky and wound up getting the win by unanimous decision in round 3. Kruschewsky ended up landing 59% of his significant strikes at distance while Holobaugh connected on 80% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance. Holobaugh ended up connecting on 53% of the significant strikes he attempted by landing 92 of 171. He connected on 58 of 131 significant strikes to the head. Kruschewsky connected on 89 of 156 significant strikes in that fight. Out of those significant strikes, he ended up landing 61 of 120 aimed at the head. Relating to total strikes that he let go in that contest, Kruschewsky was 115 of 195 and Holobaugh landed 171 of 275 of the strikes he threw in total.
Other fights to watch
An additional bout that shouldn't be missed is when Da'Mon Blackshear fights Cody Gibson. Blackshear has a career record of 15-7-1. The 30-year-old weighs in at 135 lbs and measures in at 5'10". The switch fighter has a wingspan of 72". Gibson measures in at 5'10" and tips the scales at 135 lbs. The orthodox fighter will be looking to add a victory to his record of 22-10-0. The 37-year-old has a reach of 71". Regarding grappling, Da'Mon Blackshear gets a takedown 2.17 times per 15 min and Cody Gibson gets a takedown 2.18 times per 15 min. When it comes to striking, Blackshear tags his opponents 4.30 strikes/minute and landing 47% of his attempted strikes. On the other side of the cage we have Cody Gibson, who is landing 44% of the strikes he has attempted and connects on 3.47 per min.
Another bout to watch is when AJ Cunningham is set to square up against SuYoung You. You has a record of 14-3-0 (2 NC). The 29-year-old is fighting at 135 lbs and measures 5'6". The orthodox fighter has an arm span of 65". Cunningham stands 5'10" and records a weight of 135 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the cage holding a mark of 11-4-0. The 30-year-old stretches 71". Regarding takedowns, SuYoung You prevents 66% of the takedowns fighters have gone for and is finishing his takedowns on 58% of his tries. Cunningham is finishing his takedowns on 15% of his tries and is able to thwart 33% of all takedown tries against him. In the matter of striking, You absorbs 1.40 strikes per minute while he lands 2.11 strikes per min. Cunningham, on the contrary, absorbs 11.90 strikes per minute and is dishing out 7.66 per minute.
Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?
Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Kurt Holobaugh (+160)
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