Tony Ferguson vs Michael Chiesa Pick, 8/3/2024 Predictions UFC Abu Dhabi Odds

by Guy Bruhn - 7/31/2024

Tony Ferguson vs Michael Chiesa

UFC Abu Dhabi

Etihad Arena, Yas Island, Abu Dhabi, UAE

Saturday, August 3, 2024

Tony Ferguson will enter the Octagon against Michael Chiesa at UFC Abu Dhabi on Saturday, August 3, 2024. The line has Ferguson coming in at +525 while Chiesa is priced at -750.

Tony "El Cucuy" Ferguson will be looking to add a win to his career total of 26-10-0. The 40-year-old will fight at 170 lbs and comes in at 5'11". The orthodox fighter has a reach of 76". Michael "Maverick" Chiesa stands 6'1" and records a weight of 170 lbs. The southpaw fighter steps into the cage holding a mark of 18-7-0. The 36-year-old stretches 75". Regarding significant strikes, Tony Ferguson is connecting on 4.94 per min and Michael Chiesa lands 1.87 significant strikes per min. Ferguson connects on 45% of the significant strikes he throws while Chiesa connects on 40%. Concerning their defense in the cage, "El Cucuy" allows 4.41 significant strikes per minute and "Maverick" absorbs 1.70. Ferguson also thwarts 55% of the significant strikes his opponents throw at him while Chiesa defends against 54% of the shots thrown his way.

ufc picks Tony Ferguson ufc predictions best bet odds

UFC Abu Dhabi	Tony Ferguson	Michael Chiesa
Opening Odds	+525	-750
Record	26-10-0	18-7-0
Average Fight Time	11:39	9:30
Height	5'11"	6'1"
Weight	170 lbs	170 lbs
Reach	76"	75"
Strikes Landed Per Minute	4.94	1.87
Striking Accuracy	45%	40%

In terms of wrestling, Tony Ferguson is not as effective of a grappler as he is able to score a takedown 0.39 times per 15 minutes. Ferguson is finishing his takedown attempts on 35% of his attempts and is defending 67% of the takedowns his opponents try. Chiesa is finishing his takedown tries on 50% of the takedowns he tries and stuffing 60% of all takedowns attempted by his opposition. Regarding going for the sub, Ferguson is the lesser skilled of the two fighters by attempting 0.9 subs per 3 rds while Chiesa goes for 1.0 sub per 3 rounds.

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The last time he stepped into the Octagon, Tony Ferguson faced Paddy Pimblett and wound up walking away in defeat by way of unanimous decision in round 3. Pimblett ended up landing 151 of 217 total strikes that he let go in that contest. Ferguson finished this fight landing 90 of 134 total strikes. In the category of significant strikes, Pimblett landed 106 of 165, which gave him a rate of 64%. He ended up landing 73 of 127 significant strikes directed at the head. On the other side, Ferguson ended up landing 59% of his significant strikes by connecting on 62 of 105. Out of those significant strikes, he connected on 35 of 66 to the head. 62% of the significant strikes landed by Pimblett and 82% of them connected on by Ferguson were done at distance.

In the last fight for Michael Chiesa, he battled Kevin Holland and wound up walking away in defeat via d'arce choke in round 1. Holland ended up landing 44% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance and Chiesa connected on 75% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance. Chiesa ended up connecting on 36% of his significant strikes attempted by connecting on 4 of 11. He ended up connecting on 4 of 11 significant strikes directed at the head. Holland ended up landing 9 of 16 significant strikes in that contest. Looking at the significant strike accuracy, he connected on 7 of 14 directed at the head. When discussing total strikes that he let go in that contest, Holland landed 12 of 19 while Chiesa connected on 6 of 13 of all the strikes he attempted.

Other fights on the card to watch out for

Another fight that you're going to want to watch is when Joel Alvarez opposes Elves Brener. Alvarez looks to add a win to his career record of 20-3-0. The 31-year-old weighs in at 155 lbs and comes in at 6'3". The orthodox fighter reaches 77". Brener stands in at 5'10" and weighs in at 155 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the Octagon with a mark of 16-4-0. The 26-year-old has a wingspan of 72". Regarding grappling, Joel Alvarez scores a takedown 0.60 times per 15 min and Elves Brener is averaging a takedown 1.59 times per 3 rounds. When talking about striking, Alvarez is landing 3.65 strikes/minute and is landing 46% of the strikes that he throws. On the other side we have Elves Brener, who tags his opponent on 47% of the strikes he attempts and connects on 4.19 per min.

One more can't miss bout is when Azamat Murzakanov is set to take on Alonzo Menifield. Menifield walks into the Octagon holding a mark of 15-4-1. The 36-year-old tips the scales at 205 lbs and measures 6'0". The orthodox fighter has an arm span of 76". Murzakanov stands in at 5'10" and records a weight of 205 lbs. The southpaw fighter walks into the cage with a record of 13-0-0. The 35-year-old has a reach of 71". When it comes to takedowns, Alonzo Menifield defends against 75% of the takedowns fighters have attempted and is taking his opponents down on 33% of his attempts. Murzakanov is finishing his takedowns on 16% of the tries he takes and deflects 83% of the takedowns his opponents attempt. In the matter of striking, Menifield is absorbing 3.57 strikes per minute and he lands 3.92 strikes per min. Murzakanov, on the other side, absorbs 3.12 strikes per minute and is connecting on 4.57 per minute.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Michael Chiesa (-750)

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Tony Ferguson vs Michael Chiesa Pick, 8/3/2024 Predictions UFC Abu Dhabi Odds

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