Tom Aspinall vs Curtis Blaydes Pick, 7/27/2024 Predictions UFC 304 Odds

by Tony Sink - 7/23/2024

Tom Aspinall vs Curtis Blaydes

UFC 304

Co-op Live in Manchester, England

Saturday, July 27, 2024

Tom Aspinall will take on Curtis Blaydes at UFC 304 on Saturday, July 27, 2024. The opening line has Aspinall coming in at -375 while Blaydes is priced at +295.

Tom Aspinall walks into the Octagon with a mark of 14-3-0. The 31-year-old tips the scales at 256 lbs and measures in at 6'5". The orthodox fighter has a reach of 78". Curtis "Razor" Blaydes comes in at 6'4" and steps on the scale at 265 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a win to his career total of 18-4-0 (1 NC). The 33-year-old has an arm span of 80". With respect to significant strikes, Tom Aspinall lands 7.72 per min while Curtis Blaydes is connecting on 3.53 significant strikes per minute. Aspinall lands 66% of the significant strikes he tries while Blaydes lands 50%. Regarding defending in the Octagon, Aspinall takes 2.77 significant strikes per minute and "Razor" absorbs 1.83. Aspinall also thwarts 66% of the significant strikes his opponents throw at him and Blaydes is able to stop 59% of the shots thrown.

ufc picks Tom Aspinall ufc predictions best bet odds

UFC 304	Tom Aspinall	Curtis Blaydes
Opening Odds	-375	+295
Record	14-3-0	18-4-0 (1 NC)
Average Fight Time	2:10	9:02
Height	6'5"	6'4"
Weight	256 lbs	265 lbs
Reach	78"	80"
Strikes Landed Per Minute	7.72	3.53
Striking Accuracy	66%	50%

When it comes to grappling, Tom Aspinall is not as effective of a wrestler as he takes his opponents to the canvas 3.46 times per 15 min. Aspinall is scoring a takedown on 85% of his tries and is defending 85% of takedowns his opponents have attempted. Blaydes is taking his opponents down on 53% of the takedowns he tries and thwarting 31% of the tries against him. In terms of subbing the opposition, Aspinall is the more experienced of the two fighters by attempting 1.7 finishes per 15 min while Blaydes looks to get 0.5 finishes per 3 rounds.

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In his previous fight, Tom Aspinall fought Sergei Pavlovich and wound up getting the win by way of a punch to the head in round 1. Pavlovich ended up landing 1 of 7 of the strikes he threw in total in this fight. Aspinall walked away from this fight having landed 10 of 14 total strikes. When it comes to significant strikes, Pavlovich landed 1 of 7, which gave him a percentage of 14%. He ended up landing 1 of 7 significant strikes directed at the head. On the other side of the cage, Aspinall ended up landing 71% of his significant strikes by landing 10 of 14. Out of those significant strikes, he connected on 7 of 10 to the head. 100% of the significant strikes landed by Pavlovich and 70% of them landed by Aspinall were done at a distance.

In the last fight for Curtis Blaydes, he battled Jailton Almeida and took home the win by way of a punch to the head while on the ground in round 2. Almeida ended up landing 100% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance and Blaydes ended up connecting on 0% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance. Blaydes ended up connecting on 64% of the significant strikes he attempted by connecting on 16 of 25. He connected on 16 of 25 significant strikes directed at the head. Almeida landed 1 of 3 significant strikes in that fight. Of all the significant strikes, he connected on 1 of 3 directed at the head. Discussing total strikes thrown in that contest, Almeida ended up landing 9 of 11 and Blaydes was 19 of 28 total strikes.

Other bouts to keep an eye on

Another fight that you're going to want to watch is when Bobby Green squares up against Paddy Pimblett. Green will be looking to add a win to his career total of 32-15-1 (1 NC). The 37-year-old will fight at 155 lbs and stands 5'10". The orthodox fighter stretches 71". Pimblett stands 5'10" and will fight at 155 lbs. The orthodox fighter comes into this bout with a record of 21-3-0. The 29-year-old extends his reach 73". In the grappling category, Bobby Green gets a takedown 1.19 times per 3 rounds and Paddy Pimblett takes his opponents to the mat 0.98 times per 3 rds. When it comes to striking, Green lands 6.45 strikes per min and is landing 52% of the strikes that he throws. On the other side we have Paddy Pimblett, who connects on 52% of the strikes he attempts and is connecting on 5.13 per minute.

An additional fight that you're going to want to see is when Manel Kape is set to encounter Muhammad Mokaev. Mokaev steps into the cage holding a record of 12-0-0 (1 NC). The 23-year-old weighs 125 lbs and stands 5'7". The orthodox fighter has a wingspan of 70". Kape stands in at 5'5" and tips the scales at 125 lbs. The southpaw fighter walks into the Octagon holding a record of 19-6-0. The 30-year-old reaches 68". In the category of takedowns, Muhammad Mokaev is able to stop 15% of the takedowns fighters have attempted and is taking his opponents down on 41% of his tries. Kape is taking his opponents down on 37% of his tries and defends against 77% of all takedown attempts. In the category of striking, Mokaev is taking 1.36 strikes/minute while he dishes out 1.53 per min. Kape, at the same time, absorbs 4.51 strikes/min and deals 5.12 per minute.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Curtis Blaydes (+295)

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Tom Aspinall vs Curtis Blaydes Pick, 7/27/2024 Predictions UFC 304 Odds

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