Stephen Thompson vs Joaquin Buckley Pick, 10/5/2024 Predictions UFC 307 Odds

by Guy Bruhn - 10/1/2024

Stephen Thompson vs Joaquin Buckley

UFC 307

Delta Center in Salt Lake City

Saturday, October 5, 2024

Stephen Thompson will enter the Octagon against Joaquin Buckley at UFC 307 on Saturday, October 5, 2024. The opener has Thompson priced at +164 while Buckley is priced at -198.

Stephen "Wonderboy" Thompson steps into the Octagon with a mark of 17-7-1. The 41-year-old is fighting at 170 lbs. and measures in at 6' 0". The orthodox fighter stretches 75". Joaquin "New Mansa" Buckley measures in at 5' 10" and tips the scales at 170 lbs.. The southpaw fighter walks into the Octagon with a mark of 19-6-0. The 30-year-old stretches 76". Regarding significant strikes, Stephen Thompson lands 4.11 per min while Joaquin Buckley connects on 4.25 significant strikes per min. Thompson lands 46% of the significant strikes he attempts and Buckley connects on 36%. When it comes to defending in the cage, "Wonderboy" takes 3.03 significant strikes per minute while "New Mansa" takes 3.12. Thompson also deflects 54% of the significant strikes his opponents throw his way and Buckley prevents 58% of the shots thrown his way.

ufc picks Stephen Thompson ufc predictions best bet odds

UFC 307	Stephen Thompson	Joaquin Buckley
Opening Odds	+164	-198
Record	17-7-1	19-6-0
Average Fight Time	14:37	10:13
Height	6' 0"	5' 10"
Weight	170 lbs.	170 lbs.
Reach	75"	76"
Strikes Landed Per Minute	4.11	4.25
Striking Accuracy	46%	36%

In terms of grappling, Stephen Thompson is the lesser skilled grappler as he is averaging a takedown 0.26 times per 15 min. Thompson is getting his opponent to the mat on 41% of the times he tries and stopping 65% of the takedowns his opponents attempt. Buckley is finishing his takedown attempts on 44% of the takedowns he attempts and stuffing 69% of all takedowns attempted on him. When it comes to subbing the opposition, Thompson is the more skilled fighter by trying 0.5 submissions per 3 rds while Buckley tries 0.3 submissions per 3 rds.

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In his last appearance in the Octagon, Stephen Thompson faced Shavkat Rakhmonov and was on the losing end of this fight via rear naked choke in round 2. Rakhmonov landed 73 of 88 total strikes that he let go in that fight. Thompson finished this fight landing 26 of 37 total strikes. When talking about significant strikes, Rakhmonov ended up landing 28 of 36, which gave him a rate of 77%. He ended up landing 24 of 31 significant strikes aimed at the head. On the other side of the Octagon, Thompson landed 64% of his significant strikes by landing 16 of 25. Of all the significant strikes, he landed 6 of 15 pointed at the head. 17% of the significant strikes landed by Rakhmonov and 81% of them landed by Thompson were done at distance.

In the last Octagon appearance for Joaquin Buckley, he battled Nursulton Ruziboev and ended up winning this fight by unanimous decision in round 3. Ruziboev ended up landing 74% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance and Buckley ended up landing 17% of his significant strikes at distance. Buckley ended up landing 55% of his significant strikes attempted by connecting on 86 of 156. He ended up landing 70 of 137 significant strikes aimed at the head. Ruziboev connected on 31 of 72 significant strikes in that contest. In terms of accuracy for the significant strikes, he ended up landing 17 of 46 directed at the head. When discussing total strikes attempted in that fight, Ruziboev ended up connecting on 43 of 87 while Buckley landed 113 of 187 of all the strikes he threw.

Other fights on the card to watch out for

Another bout that you're not going to want to miss is when Cesar Almeida squares up against Ihor Potieria. Almeida holds a career mark of 5-1-0. The 36-year-old is weighing in at 185 lbs. and measures in at 6' 1". The orthodox fighter has an arm span of 74". Potieria comes in at 6' 3" and weighs in at 185 lbs.. The southpaw fighter will be looking to add a win to his record of 20-6-0. The 28-year-old reaches 75". When it comes to grappling, Cesar Almeida is averaging a takedown 0.60 times per 3 rounds and Ihor Potieria takes his opponents to the canvas 0.40 times per 3 rounds. When talking about striking, Almeida lands 4.25 strikes per min and connecting on 61% of his attempted strikes. On the other side of the cage we have Ihor Potieria, who lands 50% of the strikes he has attempted and is landing 5.13 per minute.

Another must see fight on the night is when Ovince Saint Preux is set to take on Ryan Spann. Spann steps into the Octagon with a record of 21-10-0. The 33-year-old will fight at 205 lbs. and measures in at 6' 5". The orthodox fighter has an arm span of 79". Saint Preux measures 6' 3" and steps on the scale at 205 lbs.. The southpaw fighter will be looking to add a victory to his career total of 27-17-0. The 41-year-old has a reach of 80". Regarding takedowns, Ryan Spann curbs 47% of his opponents' takedown attempts and is taking his opponents to the canvas on 35% of his attempts. Saint Preux is finishing his takedowns on 36% of the tries he takes and curbs 67% of the takedowns his opponents attempt. With regard to striking, Spann is taking 3.89 strikes/min while he is dealing 3.25 strikes per minute. Saint Preux, moreover, takes 3.32 strikes/minute and is connecting on 3.03 per minute.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Joaquin Buckley (-198)

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Pick:	NY Knicks +4
Start:	November 25, 2024 @ 9:00 PM
Expert:	Doc's Sports

Analysis:

Free NBA pick for Monday from Doc’s Sports: Take New York +4 over Denver (9 p.m. EST, Monday November 25) We like to take a good team after a bad loss, and New York certainly fits the bill here. They had a hiccup on Saturday with a blowout loss at the lowly Jazz. Utah enjoyed very hot shooting from deep in that one, and it was kind of a bit fluky as it’s tough to beat any team that is hitting shots like that. So New York will be in bounce back mode today and they will be playing hard. Beating the Nuggets will put that loss in the rearview mirror. New York right now is the better team. Of course, the Nuggets will always get a top performance from their MVP, but the rest of the team has not been contributing in the ways we would expect. Denver is 9-6 on the season and 6-8-1 ATS. They have dropped three of five entering this matchup. The Knicks have won three of four meetings, and we think they will challenge for the win tonight. Read More Read Less

Stephen Thompson vs Joaquin Buckley Pick, 10/5/2024 Predictions UFC 307 Odds

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