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Sean O'Malley vs Merab Dvalishvili Pick, 9/14/2024 Predictions UFC 306 Odds

by Guy Bruhn - 9/12/2024

Sean O'Malley vs Merab Dvalishvili

UFC 306

The Sphere in Las Vegas

Saturday, September 14, 2024

Sean O'Malley will battle Merab Dvalishvili at UFC 306 on Saturday, September 14, 2024. The opening odds have O'Malley at -130 while Dvalishvili is at +110.

Sean "Suga" O'Malley steps into the Octagon with a mark of 18-1-0 (1 NC). The 29-year-old records a weight of 135 lbs and measures in at 5'11". The switch fighter extends his reach 72". Merab "The Machine" Dvalishvili measures 5'6" and weighs 135 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a victory to his career record of 17-4-0. The 33-year-old reaches 68". Regarding significant strikes, Sean O'Malley lands 7.63 per min while Merab Dvalishvili lands 4.50 significant strikes per minute. O'Malley lands 61% of the significant strikes he throws and Dvalishvili lands 41%. In terms of the fighter's defense, "Suga" takes 3.52 significant strikes per min while "The Machine" absorbs 2.37. O'Malley also defends against 62% of the significant strikes that are directed at him while Dvalishvili thwarts 57% of the shots thrown in his direction.

ufc picks Merab Dvalishvili predictions best bet odds

 

UFC 306 Sean O'Malley Merab Dvalishvili
Opening Odds -130 +110
Record 18-1-0 (1 NC) 17-4-0
Average Fight Time 10:00 15:22
Height 5'11" 5'6"
Weight 135 lbs 135 lbs
Reach 72" 68"
Strikes Landed Per Minute 7.63 4.50
Striking Accuracy 61% 41%

Regarding grappling, Sean O'Malley is not as effective of a grappler as he takes his opponents to the canvas 0.35 times per 15 min. O'Malley is getting his opponent to the mat on 42% of his tries and thwarting 62% of the attempts against him. Dvalishvili is finishing his takedown attempts on 36% of the takedowns he attempts and is stuffing 80% of the attempts against him. Regarding going for the sub, O'Malley is less apt at going for the finish by attempting 0.3 subs per 3 rounds while Dvalishvili looks to get 0.5 subs per 15 min.

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In his last appearance in the Octagon, Sean O'Malley faced Marlon Vera and wound up taking home the victory via unanimous decision in round 5. Vera ended up landing 89 of 241 total strikes that he threw in that fight. O'Malley walked away from this fight having landed 232 of 358 total strikes. In regard to significant strikes, Vera ended up landing 89 of 241, which gave him a percentage of 36%. He finished the fight landing 41 of 165 significant strikes aimed at the head. On the other side of the Octagon, O'Malley ended up landing 64% of his significant strikes by landing 230 of 356. In terms of accuracy for the significant strikes, he connected on 150 of 268 pointed at the head. 95% of the significant strikes landed by Vera and 98% of them landed by O'Malley were tallied at distance.

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In the last Octagon appearance for Merab Dvalishvili, he went up against Henry Cejudo and ended up getting the victory in the fight by way of unanimous decision in round 3. Cejudo connected on 82% of his significant strikes at distance while Dvalishvili ended up connecting on 68% of the significant strikes he attempted from distance. Dvalishvili connected on 43% of the significant strikes he attempted by connecting on 74 of 172. He landed 44 of 128 significant strikes directed at the head. Cejudo ended up connecting on 29 of 78 significant strikes in that fight. Looking at the significant strike accuracy, he ended up landing 13 of 54 to the head. In regard to total strikes that he let go, Cejudo ended up connecting on 54 of 106 while Dvalishvili landed 167 of 273 of all the strikes he threw.

Other bouts on the card to watch

Another fight that you're going to want to watch is when Brian Ortega goes up against Diego Lopes. Ortega holds a record of 16-3-0 (1 NC). The 33-year-old tips the scales at 145 lbs and measures in at 5'8". The switch fighter stretches 69". Lopes measures 5'11" and tips the scales at 145 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the Octagon holding a mark of 25-6-0. The 29-year-old stretches 72". In the grappling category, Brian Ortega scores a takedown 1.17 times per 15 minutes and Diego Lopes gets a takedown 0.33 times per 3 rounds. When it comes to striking, Ortega connects for an average of 4.07 strikes/min and is landing 38% of the strikes that he attempts. On the other side of the cage we have Diego Lopes, who is connecting on 55% of the strikes he has tried and is landing 3.24 per minute.

Another bout to watch is when Esteban Ribovics is set to square up in the Octagon with Daniel Zellhuber. Zellhuber walks into the Octagon holding a mark of 15-1-0. The 25-year-old tips the scales at 155 lbs and measures in at 6'1". The switch fighter has a wingspan of 77". Ribovics measures 5'10" and weighs 155 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a victory to his record of 13-1-0. The 28-year-old has an arm span of 69". In the category of takedowns, Daniel Zellhuber stops 94% of the takedowns fighters have gone for and is finishing his takedown attempts on 33% of his attempts. Ribovics is taking his opponents to the mat on 66% of the tries he takes and is able to stop 60% of takedowns his opponents have tried. With reference to striking, Zellhuber is taking 5.06 strikes per minute while he is dishing out 5.86 strikes per minute. Ribovics, in contrast, absorbs 3.49 strikes/min and lands 6.20 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Sean O'Malley (-130)

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