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Sean O'Malley vs Marlon Vera Pick, 3/9/2024 Predictions UFC 299 Odds

by Guy Bruhn - 3/4/2024

Sean O'Malley vs Marlon Vera

UFC 299

Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida

Saturday, March 9, 2024

Sean O'Malley will enter the Octagon with Marlon Vera at UFC 299 on Saturday, March 9, 2024. The opening moneyline has O'Malley at -285 while Vera is priced at +230.

Sean "Suga" O'Malley looks to add a win to his record of 17-1-0 (1 NC). The 29-year-old tips the scales at 135 lbs and stands 5'11". The switch fighter has a reach of 72". Marlon "Chito" Vera stands in at 5'8" and will fight at 135 lbs. The switch fighter looks to add a victory to his career record of 21-8-1. The 31-year-old has a reach of 70". In terms of significant strikes, Sean O'Malley lands 7.25 per minute and Marlon Vera connects on 4.37 significant strikes per min. O'Malley is connecting on 61% of the significant strikes he tries while Vera connects on 50%. Regarding defense, "Suga" allows 3.51 significant strikes per min while "Chito" absorbs 5.16. O'Malley also defends against 61% of the significant strikes his opponents throw at him and Vera is able to deflect 51% of them.

ufc picks Sean O’Malley ufc predictions best bet odds

 

UFC 299 Sean O'Malley Marlon Vera
Opening Odds -285 +230
Record 17-1-0 (1 NC) 21-8-1
Average Fight Time 8:45 12:54
Height 5'11" 5'8"
Weight 135 lbs 135 lbs
Reach 72" 70"
Strikes Landed Per Minute 7.25 4.37
Striking Accuracy 61% 50%

 

In the grappling category, Sean O'Malley is the lesser skilled grappler as he is able to score a takedown 0.43 times per 3 rounds. O'Malley is scoring a takedown on 42% of his attempts and defending 62% of takedowns his opponents have tried. Vera is finishing his takedown attempts on 39% of the takedowns he tries and is defending 70% of all takedowns attempted on him. In terms of subbing opponents, O'Malley is not as skilled of a technician by going for 0.4 submissions per 3 rds while Vera tries 0.9 submissions per 3 rounds.

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The last time he fought, Sean O'Malley went up against Aljamain Sterling and took home the win by way of a punch to the head while on the ground in round 2. Sterling landed 24 of 46 total strikes that he let go in that fight. O'Malley walked away from this fight having landed 26 of 36 total strikes. In terms of significant strikes, Sterling landed 17 of 35, giving him a percentage of 48%. He finished the fight landing 3 of 12 significant strikes directed at the head. On the other side, O'Malley ended up landing 71% of the significant strikes he threw by landing 25 of 35. Looking at the significant strike accuracy, he connected on 18 of 25 pointed at the head. 94% of the significant strikes landed by Sterling and 40% of them landed by O'Malley were done at a distance.

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In the last Octagon appearance for Marlon Vera, he fought Pedro Munhoz and wound up getting the win by way of unanimous decision in round 3. Munhoz connected on 98% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance while Vera ended up landing 97% of the significant strikes he attempted from distance. Vera ended up landing 56% of his significant strikes attempted by connecting on 141 of 251. He landed 109 of 212 significant strikes to the head. Munhoz ended up landing 113 of 246 significant strikes in that fight. Out of those significant strikes, he ended up connecting on 53 of 177 directed at the head. Regarding total strikes thrown, Munhoz connected on 113 of 246 and Vera landed 141 of 251 of the strikes he threw in total.

Other bouts on the card to keep an eye on

Another fight to keep an eye on is when Dustin Poirier encounters Benoit Saint Denis. Poirier looks to add a victory to his career record of 29-8-0 (1 NC). The 35-year-old tips the scales at 155 lbs and measures in at 5'9". The southpaw fighter has a reach of 72". Saint Denis stands 5'11" and will fight at 155 lbs. The southpaw fighter steps into the cage with a record of 13-1-0 (1 NC). The 28-year-old has an arm span of 73". Regarding grappling, Dustin Poirier takes his opponents to the canvas 1.36 times per 15 minutes and Benoit Saint Denis is averaging a takedown 4.55 times per 3 rds. When it comes to striking, Poirier connects for an average of 5.49 strikes per minute and is connecting on 50% out of all the strikes he attempts. The other fighter in this bout is Benoit Saint Denis, who tags the opposition on 52% of the strikes he has attempted and lands 5.53 per minute.

If you're going to be watching the fights, don't miss when Jack Della Maddalena is set to battle Gilbert Burns. Burns will be looking to add a victory to his career total of 22-6-0. The 37-year-old will fight at 170 lbs and stands 5'10". The orthodox fighter extends his reach 71". Della Maddalena comes in at 5'11" and is weighing in at 170 lbs. The switch fighter comes into this fight with a mark of 16-2-0. The 27-year-old stretches 73". Concerning wrestling, Gilbert Burns is able to curb 47% of the takedowns fighters have gone for and is finishing his takedown tries on 35% of the times he tries. Della Maddalena is taking his opponents down on 20% of the tries he takes and thwarts 82% of all takedown tries against him. In the matter of striking, Burns is taking 3.34 strikes per minute and he is connecting on 3.36 strikes per minute. Della Maddalena, on the other hand, takes 4.83 strikes/minute and lands 7.20 per minute.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Sean O'Malley (-285)

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