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Payton Talbott vs Yanis Ghemmouri Pick, 6/29/2024 Predictions UFC 303 Odds

by Tony Sink - 6/25/2024

Payton Talbott vs Yanis Ghemmouri

UFC 303

Kingdom Arena in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

Saturday, June 29, 2024

Payton Talbott will battle Yanis Ghemmouri at UFC 303 on Saturday, June 29, 2024. The moneyline has Talbott at -1600 while Ghemmouri is coming in at +900.

Payton Talbott looks to add a victory to his career total of 8-0-0. The 25-year-old is fighting at 135 lbs and stands 5'10". The switch fighter reaches 70". Yanis "The Desert Warrior" Ghemmouri comes in at 5'9" and will fight at 135 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the Octagon with a record of 12-2-0. The 29-year-old has an arm span of 69". Concerning significant strikes, Payton Talbott is landing 8.05 per min and Yanis Ghemmouri is connecting on 2.27 significant strikes per min. Talbott is connecting on 54% of the significant strikes he throws while Ghemmouri connects on 38%. Concerning the fighter's defense, Talbott takes 3.58 significant strikes per minute and "The Desert Warrior" allows 4.22. Talbott also stops 51% of the significant strikes his opponents throw at him and Ghemmouri curbs 40% of the strikes thrown in his direction.

ufc picks Yanis Ghemmouri ufc predictions best bet odds

 

UFC 303 Payton Talbott Yanis Ghemmouri
Opening Odds -1600 +900
Record 8-0-0 12-2-0
Average Fight Time 10:26 12:20
Height 5'10" 5'9"
Weight 135 lbs 135 lbs
Reach 70" 69"
Strikes Landed Per Minute 8.05 2.27
Striking Accuracy 54% 38%

When it comes to grappling, Payton Talbott is the more effective wrestler as he gets a takedown 0.90 times per 3 rds. Talbott is scoring a takedown on 15% of his attempts and stopping 90% of takedowns his opponents have attempted. Ghemmouri is finishing his takedowns on 15% of his takedown attempts and thwarting 15% of all takedowns attempted on him. Regarding sub attempts, Talbott is the more capable fighter by going for 0.5 subs per 3 rds while Ghemmouri looks to get 0.2 subs per 15 min.

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The last time he fought, Payton Talbott went up against Cameron Saaiman and wound up getting the win via a punch to the head while on the ground in round 2. Saaiman ended up landing 33 of 66 total strikes that he let go in that contest. Talbott walked away from this fight having landed 83 of 135 total strikes. In terms of significant strikes, Saaiman ended up landing 31 of 64, giving him a percentage of 48%. He finished the fight landing 13 of 40 significant strikes directed at the head. On the other side, Talbott landed 61% of his significant strikes by connecting on 79 of 129. In terms of accuracy for the significant strikes, he connected on 52 of 96 pointed at the head. 96% of the significant strikes landed by Saaiman and 68% of them connected on by Talbott were done at a distance.

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In the last bout for Yanis Ghemmouri, he faced off with William Gomis and took a loss on the night by way of a kick to the body in round 3. Gomis landed 90% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance while Ghemmouri landed 85% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance. Ghemmouri connected on 38% of his significant strikes attempted by landing 28 of 73. He ended up landing 0 of 24 significant strikes aimed at the head. Gomis ended up connecting on 52 of 88 significant strikes in that fight. Looking at the significant strike accuracy, he landed 10 of 30 directed at the head. Discussing total strikes that he let go in that contest, Gomis was 61 of 99 and Ghemmouri ended up landing 40 of 88 of all the strikes he threw.

Other fights to watch out for

An additional bout that shouldn't be missed is when Andrei Arlovski battles Martin Buday. Arlovski has a career mark of 34-23-0 (2 NC). The 45-year-old is weighing in at 240 lbs and comes in at 6'3". The orthodox fighter stretches 77". Buday measures 6'4" and is fighting at 265 lbs. The orthodox fighter comes into this bout with a record of 13-2-0. The 32-year-old has an arm span of 77". When it comes to grappling, Andrei Arlovski takes his opponents down 0.38 times per 3 rounds while Martin Buday takes his opponents to the mat 0.26 times per 15 min. In the striking category, Arlovski lands 3.78 strikes per min and connecting on 45% of the strikes that he attempts. The other guy in this fight is Martin Buday, who is landing 52% of the strikes he has thrown and connects on 5.17 per minute.

One more can't miss bout is when Carlos Hernandez is set to face off with Rei Tsuruya. Tsuruya has a record of 9-0-0. The 22-year-old steps on the scale at 125 lbs and comes in at 5'6". The orthodox fighter extends his reach 68". Hernandez comes in at 5'8" and is fighting at 125 lbs. The orthodox fighter will be looking to add a victory to his career record of 9-3-0. The 30-year-old reaches 67". Regarding takedowns, Rei Tsuruya is able to thwart 50% of the takedowns his opponents attempt and is finishing his takedown attempts on 54% of the times he tries. Hernandez is finishing his takedown tries on 15% of his attempts and thwarts 65% of all takedown tries against him. In the category of striking, Tsuruya takes 1.44 strikes/min and he is dealing 2.93 strikes/minute. Hernandez, moreover, takes 4.54 strikes per minute and is connecting on 4.95 per minute.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Yanis Ghemmouri (+900)

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