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Mauricio Ruffy vs James Llontop Pick, 11/16/2024 Predictions UFC 309 Odds

by Guy Bruhn - 11/12/2024

Mauricio Ruffy vs James Llontop

UFC 309

Madison Square Garden in NYC

Saturday, November 16, 2024

Mauricio Ruffy will enter the Octagon with James Llontop at UFC 309 on Saturday, November 16, 2024. The line has Ruffy coming in at -850 while Llontop is at +575.

Mauricio Ruffy comes into this bout with a record of 10-1-0. The 28-year-old weighs in at 155 lbs and measures 5'11". The orthodox fighter has an arm span of 75". James "Goku" Llontop stands in at 6'0" and records a weight of 155 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a win to his total of 14-4-0. The 25-year-old has a reach of 73". Regarding significant strikes, Mauricio Ruffy connects on 4.88 per min and James Llontop connects on 5.38 significant strikes per minute. Ruffy is connecting on 59% of the significant strikes he throws while Llontop is connecting on 43%. In terms of defending themselves, Ruffy allows 3.80 significant strikes per minute while "Goku" takes 3.97. Ruffy also stops 59% of the significant strikes that are aimed in his direction and Llontop defends against 62% of the strikes thrown his way.

ufc picks Mauricio Ruffy ufc predictions best bet odds

 

UFC 309 Mauricio Ruffy James Llontop
Opening Odds -850 +575
Record 10-1-0 14-4-0
Average Fight Time 9:44 11:31
Height 5'11" 6'0"
Weight 155 lbs 155 lbs
Reach 75" 73"
Strikes Landed Per Minute 4.88 5.38
Striking Accuracy 59% 43%

In terms of wrestling, Mauricio Ruffy is not as efficient of a wrestler as he takes his opponents to the mat 0.30 times per 15 minutes. Ruffy is taking his opponents to the canvas on 15% of his tries and stopping 85% of all takedowns attempted by his opposition. Llontop is taking his opponents to the mat on 15% of the takedowns he tries and thwarting 54% of all takedowns attempted on him. When it comes to subbing the opposition, Ruffy is the more able fighter by going for 0.6 finishes per 3 rds while Llontop attempts 0.4 finishes per 15 minutes.

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In his last bout, Mauricio Ruffy squared up with Jamie Mullarkey and ended up getting the victory by a punch to the head in round 1. Mullarkey landed 14 of 38 total strikes that he threw in that fight. Ruffy ended the night having landed 25 of 40 total strikes. In the category of significant strikes, Mullarkey ended up landing 14 of 38, giving him a percentage of 36%. He ended up landing 7 of 28 significant strikes to the head. On the other side of the Octagon, Ruffy ended up landing 62% of the significant strikes he threw by landing 25 of 40. Looking at the significant strike accuracy, he landed 21 of 35 to the head. 100% of the significant strikes landed by Mullarkey and 88% of them landed by Ruffy were done at distance.

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In the last fight for James Llontop, he went up against Viacheslav Borshchev and ended up taking the loss by split decision in round 3. Borshchev ended up landing 95% of the significant strikes he took from distance and Llontop landed 97% of the significant strikes he attempted from distance. Llontop ended up connecting on 37% of his significant strikes attempted by connecting on 93 of 249. He connected on 40 of 168 significant strikes aimed at the head. Borshchev ended up landing 96 of 229 significant strikes in that fight. In regard to the placement of these significant strikes, he ended up connecting on 49 of 172 directed at the head. When discussing total strikes that he threw in that fight, Borshchev ended up landing 97 of 230 and Llontop connected on 97 of 253 of all the strikes he attempted.

Other fights to watch

Another fight that you're going to want to watch is when Jonathan Martinez enters the Octagon against Marcus McGhee. Martinez walks into the Octagon with a mark of 19-5-0. The 30-year-old steps on the scale at 135 lbs and stands in at 5'8". The southpaw fighter reaches 70". McGhee stands in at 5'8" and is weighing in at 135 lbs. The orthodox fighter holds a mark of 9-1-0. The 34-year-old stretches 69". Regarding grappling, Jonathan Martinez is averaging a takedown 0.41 times per 3 rds and Marcus McGhee takes his opponents to the mat 0.84 times per 3 rounds. In terms of striking, Martinez is landing 4.54 strikes per min and is connecting on 49% out of all the strikes he attempts. The other fighter in this bout is Marcus McGhee, who lands 51% of his attempted strikes and connects for an average of 5.43 per minute.

Another bout to watch is when Eryk Anders is set to battle Chris Weidman. Weidman has a record of 16-7-0. The 40-year-old weighs 185 lbs and measures in at 6'2". The orthodox fighter stretches 78". Anders comes in at 6'1" and is weighing in at 185 lbs. The southpaw fighter will be looking to add a win to his career total of 16-8-0 (1 NC). The 37-year-old has a wingspan of 75". Regarding wrestling, Chris Weidman is stopping 65% of the takedowns his opponents attempt and is getting his opponent to the mat on 42% of the times he tries. Anders is taking his opponents down on 26% of the tries he takes and is able to curb 79% of the takedowns his opponents attempt. With reference to striking, Weidman is taking 3.22 strikes per min and he dishes out 3.18 strikes per min. Anders, at the same time, takes 4.17 strikes per minute and is dishing out 3.41 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take James Llontop (+575)

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