Matheus Nicolau vs Asu Almabayev Pick, 10/19/2024 Predictions UFC Vegas 99 Odds

by Josh Schonwald - 10/18/2024

Matheus Nicolau vs Asu Almabayev

UFC Vegas 99

UFC Apex in Las Vegas

Saturday, October 19, 2024

Matheus Nicolau will face off with Asu Almabayev at UFC Vegas 99 on Saturday, October 19, 2024. The opening moneyline has Nicolau coming in at +160 while Almabayev is coming in at -192.

Matheus Nicolau looks to add a victory to his record of 19-5-1. The 31-year-old records a weight of 125 lbs and stands 5'6". The orthodox fighter has a reach of 66". Asu "Zulfikar" Almabayev stands 5'4" and records a weight of 125 lbs. The orthodox fighter will be looking to add a victory to his career total of 20-2-0. The 30-year-old stretches 65". Concerning significant strikes, Matheus Nicolau is landing 3.62 per minute while Asu Almabayev connects on 2.36 significant strikes per minute. Nicolau is landing 52% of the significant strikes he tries and Almabayev is connecting on 61%. In terms of defending in the Octagon, Nicolau allows 3.19 significant strikes per minute and "Zulfikar" absorbs 1.00. Nicolau also stops 66% of the significant strikes his opponents throw his way and Almabayev is able to defend against 58% of the strikes thrown in his direction.

ufc picks Matheus Nicolau ufc predictions best bet odds

UFC Vegas 99	Matheus Nicolau	Asu Almabayev
Opening Odds	+160	-192
Record	19-5-1	20-2-0
Average Fight Time	10:51	12:44
Height	5'6"	5'4"
Weight	125 lbs	125 lbs
Reach	66"	65"
Strikes Landed Per Minute	3.62	2.36
Striking Accuracy	52%	61%

In the category of takedowns, Matheus Nicolau is not as efficient of a grappler as he is able to score a takedown 1.38 times per 3 rds. Nicolau is scoring a takedown on 45% of his attempts and thwarting 93% of takedowns his opponents have tried. Almabayev is taking his opponents to the canvas on 56% of the takedowns he tries and is defending 15% of the tries against him. When it comes to submission attempts, Nicolau is the less likely of the two fighters to go for the finish by trying 0.8 subs per 15 min while Almabayev goes for 2.4 subs per 15 minutes.

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In his previous bout, Matheus Nicolau fought Alex Perez and wound up walking away in defeat via a punch to the head in round 2. Perez landed 28 of 71 total strikes that he threw in that fight. Nicolau ended the night having landed 22 of 55 total strikes. When it comes to significant strikes, Perez ended up landing 28 of 71, which gave him a percentage of 39%. He landed 11 of 50 significant strikes aimed at the head. On the other side of the Octagon, Nicolau ended up landing 40% of his significant strikes by landing 22 of 55. Of all the significant strikes, he landed 13 of 44 to the head. 100% of the significant strikes connected on by Perez and 100% of them landed by Nicolau were done at distance.

In the last Octagon appearance for Asu Almabayev, he squared up with Jose Johnson and got a win for the night by way of unanimous decision in round 3. Johnson ended up connecting on 80% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance while Almabayev ended up connecting on 20% of the significant strikes he attempted from distance. Almabayev ended up connecting on 68% of his significant strikes attempted by landing 20 of 29. He ended up landing 12 of 19 significant strikes aimed at the head. Johnson landed 5 of 21 significant strikes in that fight. In terms of accuracy for the significant strikes, he landed 3 of 16 to the head. Relating to total strikes thrown, Johnson ended up connecting on 58 of 79 and Almabayev connected on 77 of 109 total strikes.

Other bouts on the card to watch out for

Another fight that you're going to want to watch is when Brad Katona squares up against Jean Matsumoto. Katona comes into this fight with a record of 16-3-0. The 32-year-old weighs 135 lbs and measures in at 5'6". The orthodox fighter reaches 64". Matsumoto measures 5'6" and is weighing in at 135 lbs. The orthodox fighter will be looking to add a win to his career total of 15-0-0. The 25-year-old has a wingspan of 68". In terms of takedowns, Brad Katona is able to score a takedown 1.71 times per 3 rounds while Jean Matsumoto takes his opponents to the mat 1.20 times per 15 min. When talking about striking, Katona connects on 4.69 strikes per min and landing 51% out of all the strikes he attempts. The other fighter in this bout is Jean Matsumoto, who tags the opposition on 38% of the strikes he has tried and connects on 4.76 per minute.

One more can't miss bout is when Robelis Despaigne is set to clash with Austen Lane. Lane walks into the cage holding a record of 12-5-0 (1 NC). The 36-year-old weighs 245 lbs and stands in at 6'6". The orthodox fighter stretches 80". Despaigne measures in at 6'7" and tips the scales at 265 lbs. The orthodox fighter holds a record of 5-1-0. The 36-year-old has a wingspan of 84". Concerning wrestling, Austen Lane prevents 15% of the takedowns fighters have gone for and is finishing his takedown tries on 20% of his tries. Despaigne is finishing his takedown tries on 15% of the attempts he tries and is able to thwart 25% of all takedown tries against him. With reference to striking, Lane is absorbing 2.81 strikes per min while he deals 3.43 per min. Despaigne, on the other side, is absorbing 3.53 strikes/min and dishes out 2.16 per minute.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Asu Almabayev (-192)

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Matheus Nicolau vs Asu Almabayev Pick, 10/19/2024 Predictions UFC Vegas 99 Odds

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